Has the Australian dollar already topped?

Has the Australian dollar already topped? Most on Wall Street do not think so. JPM sees the recent correction as over:

I had written extensively last week about the dislocation between G10 FX (lower) and stocks (higher) and on Friday we saw that correct in style as the USD sold off everywhere. It doesn’t feel great to just point at a lower than expected payrolls print to reason the move, particularly when yields are marching higher, but perhaps that was the catalyst, with momentum and stopping out of USD longs vs EUR and AUD then chipping in. AUD has bounced nicely since the dovish RBA seemed to inspire a plethora of short AUD recommendations. Over the weekend I note continued improvement on the COVID front in Europe, and crucially for vaccine success, in Israel. We remain in a trading environment until we get closer to summer and reopening’s and perhaps the level of US 10yrs can start to cause some nervousness this week. I’m sticking with USDshorts vs GBP, CAD, NOK for now but will be looking for the right time to book profit and rebuild at better levels. Canadian payrolls data was a shocker on Friday with over 200k jobs lost in the part time sector, but I think the market will be able to see through that and look to the future as the corvid situation is improving in Canada.

Similar from Citi:

AUD weakened after the RBA – in line with ourRBA preview expectations – as they expanded the LSAP by AUD 100bn (though we expected that to be later this year) and also highlighted currency strength (which we anticipated); the correction brought us down to key technical levels which we expected would hold as support around. Friday also confirmed a bullish technical pattern off those supports (bullish outside day with momentum crossing up), adding to our tactical and structural bullish view on AUD. With the risk that the USD squeeze can continue, though, we prefer to express AUD more broadly against both USD and EUR and other low yielding G10 majors. February Consumer Confidence on Wednesday should continue to reflect the improving domestic condition in Australia.The strong New Zealand Q4 unemployment beat (4.9% versus 5.6% expected and 5.3% prior) supports the expanding recovery there as well, along with expectations that the RBNZ has finished easing and could potentially be one of the first central banks to hike, though we find such discussion premature given the bank’s concern with a strong currency. This, along with the breakout to multi-year highs in milk prices, continued to supported, and we continue to see both antipodeans as outperformers. Watch 2 year inflation expectations on Tuesday. AUDUSD supports have held, momentum is turning up and a bullish outside day was posted.

Commerzbank is less convinced on the bullish case with technicals:

AUD/USD bounced from the 55 dayma a t0 .7596 and the 2020-2021 support line at .7619 this week..Initial resistance is the 20 day ma at .7693 ahead of the .7764 resistance line and the .7820 January high. Above the market we have TD resistance at .7925 which, if reached is likely to hold the initial test. The .7925 level is seen as the barrier to the 2018 peak at .8135. Below .7560 will trigger a slide to .7463 December 21 low and also the .7413 September high and the .7340 November 9 high. Where are we wrong? The .7340 November 9 high guards the 78.6% retracement at 0.7169, which in turn protects the September-to-November lows at .7006/.6991. Short term trend (1-3weeks): Unclear if this is a top or a consolidation pattern–neutral. Long term trend (1-3months): Longer term the .8135 2018 high is in play. The 200 month ma lies at .8251.

I am still targeting the low-80s in H2 as the top for this cycle.