Readers will know that we have been expecting a scary steepening of the bond curve. The reasons are clear. The global vaccine recovery has begun. Central banks have nailed short-end yields to the floor. Fiscal stimulus is booming. There are short-term inflation pressures in the global inventory rebuild and production bottlenecks. Energy prices are surging. And there are very favourable base effects for higher inflation for months to come.
That back-up in yields is really gathering steam. Just about everywhere:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.