America whips the virus

It’s been a long and hard road including, in my view, the expression of Donald Trump’s revenge on the American people for giving him the boot, but the US is on track to whip COVID-19 by mid-year. Levels are still high but falling fast. Via BofA:

The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US has declined dramatically to 81,439, or 51,035–39% off the peak which occurred on January 5th(Figure 3)-a rapid turn in the crisis (Figure 4). The decrease is broad-based (50 states+DC, except for AKthat saw a minimal 2-person increase over the past week). The weekly percentage change in US COVID-19 hospitalized is consistent with the largest declines seen during the Coronavirus crisis (Figure 5). Moreover the 7-day test positivity rate has declined to7.2% from the 13.6% peak on January 8th(Figure 6). Since hospitalizations are lagged relative to time of infection the USCorona outbreaks peaked back in the second half of December. Finally, the vaccine rollout in the US has accelerated to above 2mn doses per day over the weekend and a cumulative 41.2mn doses administered through February 7th(Figure 7,Figure 8).

As hospitals are debottlenecked, the economic boom cometh.

David Llewellyn-Smith


  1. The fed broke it. Now, they own it.MEMBER

    The more contagious variants will begin to dominate in April and we will see another wave.

      • Just out CDC USA updated covid cases by 1600%. during 2020. Ignored all federal requirements, a force unto its own, dare we suspect political and or allied elsewhere.

    • B.1.1.7 is surging within the US —growing 7% per day, doubling every 9.8 days nationally, & expected to become dominant by March 23rd. Why is #B117 worse than other #SARSCoV2? It carries a package of mutations, including many which change the structure of the spike protein that enhance its ability to bind to human ACE2 receptor, yielding higher viral loads, and may shed more virus when coughing or sneezing.

      This nasty fvkr mutation is doubling cases every 10 days…. Think about the exponential growth! Once it becomes domainant… woah.

    • TWO DIFFERENT #COVID19 PANDEMICS—Many think with cases dropping that pandemic is nearly over. But truth is, there are now 2 different #SARSCoV2 pandemics diverging—old strain is waning, while the more contagious #B117 strain is dominating. We will be soon slammed very hard.

      Here is what is really going to happen… most countries are having a gentle case decline with R(e) currently around 0.9. But this is deceiving. The #B117 is still relatively rare so far, so the R is being influenced mostly by the old common variant. But not for long…

      Bank of America is either stupid/ignorant/or just spouting hopeful sh*t like Scummo’s cronies are right now.

  2. call me ArtieMEMBER

    The USA may end up having a bizzare advantage over Australia in that the population has never experienced a near elimination situation. Therefore, they will be more open to the (probable) vaccine reality that lots of people get will sick every year forever, but they don’t require hospitalisation and don’t regularly die. They probably will, however, require re-vaccination regularly to maintain this equilibrium. So it’s not so hard to sell a back to business-as-usual model for the US

    I cannot, however, see Australians (who have experienced and still enjoy near elimination) being so keen to allow the virus back into the country based on a vaccine as 100% of our protection. Re-opening of Australia to the world may be a hard sell

    • Blakely addressed this yesterday in Smage

      Vax, including AZ, rapid testing, tight quarantine and probably some form of physical distancing/density control + masks in some high risk settings for a little while longer.

      • AZ doesn’t work already for some new strains. At best it is only 70% effective with the original strains. Another 6-12 months of mutation and it ain’t going to work for sh*t. none of these vaccines stop you getting or transmitting the virus either. AZ attenuates transmission by only about 50%. That is not very good especially when the U.K. strain is 70% more infectious.

        I think a lot of the spruik right now will be exposed as the hopeful bullsh*t it is.

    • If Morrison wins the election (early or not) he’ll ram reopening down our throat and he’ll have three yrs to worry about voter fallout and, more than likely, that’ll not be in his consideration as he’ll finish up.

  3. The virus had nothing to do with Trump. It’s a global pandemic.

    Has Biden locked the country down? People were at the Super Bowl without masks, celebrating the win in Tampa without masks. I suppose Trump’s fault?

    The virus peaked two weeks after Christmas in the middle of winter. Other seasonal viruses have similar peaks. The virus situation will continue to improve until mid-year due to improved weather alone. How much of that is due to vaccinations we won’t really know until the next northern winter.

    • I tend to agree, I don’t think Trump was quite malicious, just lazy, self-absorbed and oblivious to how short term pain leads to long term gain, in short not someone who knows how to make policy.