New polling from Roy Morgan Research shows that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has overtaken the Coalition in the polls, recording its first two-party preferred lead since the COVID-19 pandemic began:
In February, support for the ALP is 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% point since November 2020 and now ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1% point) according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 6.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.
Interviewing for the latest Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,786 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).
Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP drops to 40%, ALP & Greens support increases
Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 2% points since November) compared to the ALP on 34.5% (up 0.5% points). Greens support has also increased and is now at 13% (up 1% point).
Support for One Nation is down 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has increased 1% point to 9%.
Federal Voting Intention by State shows benefit of strong State Governments
Voting analysis by State shows the swing to the ALP is built on swings to the ALP since the last Federal Election in the three States with an ALP State Government – Victoria, Queensland and WA…
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says if a Federal Election were held now the result would likely be a hung Parliament with the ALP governing in minority with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents:
“Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 50.5% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-February. The result is so close that were it to be repeated at a Federal Election the most likely result is a hung Parliament.
“An in-depth look at the trends in Australia’s key States shows the ALP gaining ground on a two-party preferred basis in Victoria (+1.9%), Queensland (+6.4%) and WA (+6.1%) since the last Federal Election. All three States have ALP State Governments and if these swings were repeated at a Federal Election the ALP would pick up five seats in Queensland, three seats in WA and one seat in Victoria.
“In contrast, there have been swings to the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis in both NSW (+2.2%) and SA (+1.2%). Both States have Liberal-led State Governments, however these swings would result in a pick-up of only three seats in NSW.
“The L-NP Federal Government currently has a narrow majority of only one seat in Parliament with 77 seats (including the Speaker) compared to the ALP on 68 seats and 6 seats held by minor parties and independents. On the floor of Parliament this translates into a 76-74 majority.
“If the State-based swings in this poll were repeated at a Federal Election the ALP would pick up a net of six seats in Parliament and lead to a hung Parliament with the ALP on 74 seats, L-NP on 71 seats and 6 seats held by minor parties and independents.
“In this scenario the ALP would be likely to form a minority government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents including Andrew Wilkie, Zali Steggal and Helen Haines.
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP Government risks losing an election because of sizeable swings against it in the ‘heartland’ States of Queensland and Western Australia. The ‘margin for error’ for Scott Morrison’s Government is small and there is every chance an ALP Government led by Anthony Albanese could secure a victory at an early Federal Election later this year.”
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