Regional property price growth highest in 17 years

From CommSec:

Home prices are rising across the country. In fact home prices only fell in two of the 88 regions in the past month. And over the past year all but 12 regions posted gains in home prices. The icing on the cake: data shows that in 39 of the 88 regions, home prices were at record highs at the end of 2020.

The outback regions of South Australia and the Northern Territory as well as the mid to far north coast regions of NSW were amongst those posting the strongest home price gains in December. The Sydney Eastern Suburbs (down 0.1 per cent) and Far West and Orana region of NSW (-0.4 per cent) were the only two regions to record falls in home prices in December.

Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices. Both reflect Covid-19 effects, especially the new reality that work can be done anywhere and at any time…

In regional areas, home prices jumped 1.6 per cent with house prices up 1.7 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.1 per cent. Regional home prices were up 6.9 per cent on the year with houses lifting 7.1 per cent and apartments up 5.9 per cent.

COVID-19 has turned Australia’s housing market upside down, with the regions and smaller capitals outperforming the two big cities, Sydney and Melbourne.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I said we’d be in boom times and I was severely mocked with attempts to destroy my perfect reputation. Some bloke even went on about sun rays or some crazy card reading trick. But alas, I have kept my 100% success rate intact. This is what successful good looking people of positive spirit like myself achieve!

  2. Approx 18 year property cycle anyone? Regional property is supposed to outperform the main urban centres in the second half of the cycle (they outperform in the first half), which we are entering into right now

  3. It’s gone beyond what I’d consider a boom around here ( Arakoon / South West Rocks NSW ) . There seems to be some kind of real estate fever in the air. Homes being snapped up immediately or very shortly after. Houses hitting the market appear to be ratcheting up in price by the day. Approximations of single figure quarterly increases don’t come anywhere near what I’m seeing.

    Personally I’m not happy about it. I bought a place here in March / April because I’ve got to care for the in laws and thought I was buying into a sleepy little coastal town which was thankfully free of the aspirational set who had destroyed the liveability of most other small coastal towns. Not so now. Everyone I speak to about this thinks I’m out of my mind and that I should be grateful for the fact that my house has gone up in theoretical value.

    Give me the recent past with empty beaches , shops and streets , cheap rates and no wannabe city mindset where people think that the make of car they drive determines their personality and how much they are appreciated by the community .

    All I see now is the kids of locals priced out of the area they grew up in and the people on low income ( majority ) will be moved on when they’re made to feel like strangers in their town.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Started around 99′- 00′ in the Northern rivers NSW. Happened to most people who lived in coastal towns.
      Anecdata
      Ballina area going off.
      Cumbalum, 15 mins from the coast, blocks of land were taken off the market and auctioned. All went 100K over reserve.
      West facing, overlooking the motorway.

      • My Mum and Dad had one of the first places at Cumbalum back in the early 90s…5 acres I think. They moved into the island at Ballina once Dad couldn’t handle all the grounds maintenance.

        Rising house prices based on nothing but debt for no reason disgust me, but it is what it is.

    • Same in Port Macquarie. RE agents have people on their books and are calling them up pre-market. Free-standing homes with 4+ bedrooms are selling sight unseen in some cases – one bedroom for the parents, one each for the two kids and one converted into a study to WFH is what is in huge demand. Pretty much all owner/occupiers so rentals are becoming scarce with no additional stock. If a quality property goes to market, people are paying huge amounts over the asking price. I would wager prices here have gone up at least 10%+ year-on-year.

      I was lucky that I got to purchase the house we were renting before it went to market. Paid the asking price – an amount I never thought I would pay for a house here but it is still under 3x our household income and repayments are cheaper than rent and the independent valuer came in just above what we paid.

      I really feel for younger people and established locals. Things will get desperate in the regions. I think the crime rate will soar.

      • SupernovaMEMBER

        Same in Southern Highlands (esp. Mittagong) it’s also with large blocks of land. Before January 2020 one of the few remaining 1 acre blocks in established area couldn’t sell for $700,000 however, this same bock sold for more than double this price by mid 2020.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “There seems to be some kind of real estate fever in the air. Homes being snapped up immediately or very shortly after. Houses hitting the market appear to be ratcheting up in price by the day. Approximations of single figure quarterly increases don’t come anywhere near what I’m seeing.”

      ~36 billion of super money has to go somewhere.

      North Brissy going gangbusters at the moment.

  4. Wasn’t an external shock meant to cut house prices by 40% in real terms. Wasn’t that what we were hearing for a decade based of fundamentals that housing was overpriced. But suddenly now it’s reasonably priced after the last decade of inflation. What happened to the interest only reset, don’t hear about that much anymore.

    • People tend to quietly forget their past predictions when they turn out to be not very accurate…
      but as they always say “Past performance is not an indicator of future gains”

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      This funny thing called covid came along and with it mortgage “holidays” along with our banks getting “cheap” money via the TFF courtesy of our RBA. Rates going to near zero and then NIRP is not the things of a strong economy any where in the world.
      Extend and pretend will end .

    • Jumping jack flash

      Nothing is overpriced when the bank gives you the right amount of debt that you need to buy it with. Then it is reasonably priced.

      In a debt economy that relies on perpetual debt growth, the problem is never affordability, it is only ever debt eligibility. Politicians need to focus on that and stay right away from the trap of charging at the affordability windmill

    • People don’t have to pay back their loans, companies can trade while insolvent, vast amounts of cash have been handed out to companies so they can pretend to employ people, huge numbers of people have drawn down on their retirement security …so house prices shoot up. It’s all a giant fraud, but that’s how the country runs these days.

  5. UPDATE … REMOTE WORKING… ANYWHERE …

    … WHERE IS IT MORE COST – EFFECTIVE … AND THEREFORE WHO WILL SURVIVE ? …

    … AS POORLY GOVERNED HIGH – COST LOCATIONS ARE SEVERELY PUNISHED … AND FAST …

    The Work-From-Home Boom Is Here to Stay. Get Ready for Pay Cuts … Noah Buhayar … Bloomberg
    h/t Tory Gattis http://houstonstrategies.blogspot.com/

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-17/work-from-home-tech-companies-cut-pay-of-workers-moving-out-of-big-cities

    White-collar workers are taking advantage of a newfound flexibility to leave expensive coastal cities, even as companies move to “localize” their pay. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    INDIA … WORKING FROM HOME … MASSIVELY BOOSTING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTNITIES FOR WOMEN …

    … “We’ll see work going to people rather than people going to work,”

    Work from home revolution is a surprise boon for India’s women … Saritha Rai … Bloomberg / The Economic Times

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/work-from-home-revolution-is-a-surprise-boon-for-indias-women/articleshow/79401373.cms

    The coronavirus pandemic has hit women worldwide with job losses and closures of childcare centers. Yet a surprising bright spot is emerging: India’s $200 billion technology services industry, where new rules are expected to provide female workers with a broad swath of flexible work arrangements and fresh employment opportunities.
    On the outskirts of New Delhi, Teena Likhari, 45, quit her job running operations for the Indian back office of a Silicon Valley company in 2018 because of a family medical emergency. Looking to rejoin this year, she expected a market stunted by lockdowns. Instead, the pandemic had made work-from-home mainstream in her industry, which had long shunned the practice.

    Not only did the operations manager quickly land a job with Indian outsourcer WNS Global Services, but working from her home in the city of Gurgaon, she began overseeing a 100-member team in the city of Pune about 900 miles away.

    … “We’ll see work going to people rather than people going to work,” said Keshav Murugesh, group chief executive officer of WNS which employs 43,000 workers globally, nearly 30,000 of them in India. “With flexible hours or selected work days, over 100 million Indian women with secondary degrees, could potentially find employment,” he said. … read more via hyperlink above …

  6. Agent in Bridgetown WA tells me that he sold 12 properties in December in a practice that might sell 50 in a good year in a community of ~1,800 people.
    One punter sold in Margaret River, to buy in Bridgetown, pocketing ~$300 K in the switch!

      • Yep. This is what I don’t get. Do people realise they are moving to areas where those roadside signs that say “ICE” could be a warning of a slippery road when cold or could just as easily be signalling the locals’ favourite pastime?

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Olaf, you forgot the first one, ICE for Eskies, then more sinister after that.
            btw we lived in Northcliffe in the 50’s what the situation there today ?

      • A town with a lot of grace. But residents would prefer to keep the hoi-polloi away.
        Please tell all your friends that it is a terrible place. No decent wine or cider, no water, no horticulture and certainly no more than 5 Grand Pianos in a town of 500 people and it hasn’t got the highest number of PhDs per capita od any town in WA!

    • You get what you pay for and, as someone who lives in the SW of WA, there is no way I would swap Margret River for Bridgetown.
      From the BOM:
      Margs- Mon 31, Tues 33, Wed 34, Thurs 36, Frid 35, Sat 33
      Bridgetown- Mon 30, Tues 33, Wed 35, Thurs 38, Frid 40, Sat 37

      40 degrees and you are in the middle of b#m f#kc nowhere. No thanks.
      That is without considering winter when Bridgetown freezes over.

      • Excellent. There is no way folks from Balingup & Bridgetown (AKA ‘Fridgetown’, one of the coldest places in WA) want dregs from Margs swanning in. Keep your stubbies and thongs where they are.
        The best thing to come out of Margs is the road to Nannup and the Golden Triangle” 🙂

      • So if we want to judge a place by how clement its temperature is forecast to be over the coming 7 days (1.9% of a year), Margs is set to have an average high of 32.7 degrees while sunny Bridgie will be 34.4 degrees.
        Meanwhile, Margs will have a median temperature of 25.2 degrees and Bridgetown, an expected median of just 25 degrees.

        Sweat the big stuff!

  7. Bonds are rising. Lots of impacts from stimulus.
    https://gyazo.com/63d26bcba267faf0b210241b48b9dc95?token=b54b988939d7e777f6d329802a012137

    I wouldnt be surprised if we see more Government Stimulus into the future which all finds its way into the Property Market. People are freaking out about Covid and the End of the World.

    Australias Books are Cooked.

    Its probably an election thing. Lots of money printing for the next 8 months with Liberals kissing Babys and ‘Saving Australia’. The reality is they are just handing out printed money like Candy.

    The only thing that surprises me is the arrogance of Australia. There’s still life left in them Boomers yet ( we seem to be following a demographic curve ).

    Wake me when we reach Peak Boomer ( and when Australias Business Sector has ultimately died ).

    • Jumping jack flash

      “I wouldnt be surprised if we see more Government Stimulus into the future which all finds its way into the Property Market. People are freaking out about Covid and the End of the World.”

      Indeed. I think if one or more of the vaccines turned out to be a bust then billions more will be shovelled into the black hole debt economy.

      But on the other hand if we reach the magical point where debt creates debt at the correct rate (and inflation and wage inflation are debt feedbacks that ultimately create debt) we will have perperual debt and the bankers utopia that we experienced ever so briefly around 2006.

      • It’s kind of like one of those, hope so, and hope not, simutaneously thoughts.

        It’s clear that debt is the product, the house, car, …, is the new wrapping.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Yes!! A house is simply a container for debt.
          A mortgage represents the biggest box of debt that an ordinary Quiet Australian can carry around.

          If you want to fill an economy with debt and give bankers all the power and create the absurd ability to control an entire ecomomy with simply interest rates, you choose the biggest container.

          • and when you tell all that good news to the people, they’ll rush play their part in it too.

            Australian sharemarket shrugs off lockdown concerns on first day of trading | Finance Report

            We don’t need no regulations
            We don’t need no credit control

            No bankruptcy laws in the boardroom
            Government, leave those slaves alone

            Hey! APRA, keep your nose out of it

            All you’ve deposited for, is one brick in the wall

            Wrong! Do it again…
            Wrong! Do it again…

            If you don’t get a mortage, you can’t get a credit card
            How are you supposed to get a credit card, if you don’t get a mortage!

          • Jumping jack flash

            The people have no choice. I’m in the process of taking on a truly colossal pile of debt and it is simply necessary. It is what needs to be done. There is no choice. The alternative is to eat catfood in retirement and i dont particularly want to do that. (But that will probably still happen)

          • Jack, yes, I don’t think there are many people who have a choice today. But when you look at your money, would you be better off holding on to it?

      • Yeah, sure. You can eat debt; stuff debt in your petrol tank; build stuff with debt…..whole deck of cards is a giant ponzi

        Bon appetit with the cat food. You won’t be alone :).

        • Jumping jack flash

          It is a ponzi for sure. It has all the right properties for a ponzi. When it all implodes, which could take a very long time, will it be better to be in or out? Thats the question.

  8. Orange NSW is a nightmare. Every second week there is an article in a mainstream publication singing its praises.The instagram crowd are enthralled. Sydneysiders are moving in droves paying anything to get in. Places valued at $900k at the start of last year are now trading for mid $1s. Every local suddenly thinks their pile is on the North Shore / Eastern Suburbs. Yes there are good restaurants, a nice climate, plenty of vineyards and all the #stuffwhitepeoplelike, but the town itself is a planning nightmare. There are a few nice blocks in the centre of town and near the golf course, however in the main, the North and West of the town are quickly turning into a heat sink sprawl to rival Western Sydney and are even further hamstrung by the clusterfck of the bypass/distributor/ ring road that the council has spectacularly self sabotaged. Isolated road locked colour bond peninsulas are sprouting like fungi. The East is gritty (read crime ridden ice den) and the South is an ode to 70s /80s crud. The south and west are also soon to envelop prime agricultural land due to the usual avarice of the property developers / council / real estate troika.

    If you need a laugh hunt around online and see what $1m gets you in 2800.

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