Realty locusts swarm into early election

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Via REIA:

Australia’s housing market recorded respectable growth over 2020 and with limited stock and strong demand, 2021 should see further price increases, REIA President Adrian Kelly said.

Mr Kelly said the winding back of Jobkeeper and Jobseeker may see temporary issues for tenants in some capital cities but the trend to relocate to the regional areas currently being experienced is likely to gain further momentum.

“Traditionally there is a reduction in the number of house sales over the holiday period due to buyers going away for the festive period but due to the current restrictions people are taking advantage of the market conditions whilst they are unable to travel and looking to buy while they can,” he said.

Mr Kelly said the property sector has been crucial to Australia’s economic performance, adding that “Government stimulus measures and continued low interest rates have been, in part responsible for the resilient demand for residential property.”

“Even though growth in new dwelling investment is unlikely in the 2020/21 fiscal year, given the lags between building approvals and construction activity, the forecast for dwelling investment has been revised from -4 percent in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook to -3.5 per cent in MYEFO,” he said.

Mr Kelly said with the possibility of a Federal election being called as early as August 2021 it was critical policy makers make measured commitments for property policy for all players in the real estate industry from first home buyers to investors.

“In May just prior to the 2019 election, house sales were the lowest in two decades across Australiawhich was largely attributed to election commitments from the Federal Opposition to abolish negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) in their current form.”

“Given the major role investors played and continue to play in providing housing over the pandemic, it is critical that in the run in to the election that policies from all sides of politics work for all players in real estate.”

“Overall, the real estate industry looks forward to a positive year for the Australian property market with the promise of an Australian Covid-19 vaccination program allowing life to resume to a new normal.”

“For customers, whatever your objective is for this year, whether you’re downsizing, investing or making a lifestyle move – talk to your local agent about your options for 2021.”

There’s no time like the present to remind Labor that negative gearing is a sacred cow. We still don’t know if Albo’s increasingly vacuous Labor will dump the negative gearing policy it took MB ten years to build.

The last we heard from Labor on this was in November:

Mr Clare said on Tuesday night the issue of housing affordability was not going away.

“The economy is weak, unemployment is up, underemployment is chronic, part-time and casual work is becoming more the norm, and wages are flat.

“At the same time, property prices in places like Sydney are predicted to increase by up to 10 per cent in the next 12 months.

“If that happens, the gap between average wages and the cost of the average home is only going to get bigger, and saving up to get your first home, and pay it off, is only going to get harder.”

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Sitting on the fence is not a good sign when we know that Albo has no convictions of any kind regarding class politics. He already dumped the excellent franking credits reforms that wound back rich elderly welfare.

I have little faith that Labor will show gumption if there is an early election and the locusts swarm.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.