Property rents sink deeper into abyss

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released consumer price index (CPI) data for the December quarter, which revealed that property rents fell sharply in 2020.

While property rents rose by 0.1% of the quarter:

Over the 2020 calendar year, rents fell by 1.3%:

The next chart plots rental growth across the capital cities:

As you can see, six jurisdictions recorded rental declines in 2020, whereas two recorded positive growth.

In real inflation-adjusted terms, rents across the combined capital cities fell by 0.8% over the December quarter and by 2.2% year-on-year:

In fact, real inflation-adjusted rents were 7.5% below their March 2015 peak, according to the ABS:

The outlook for rents nationally remains poor given the forecast sharp fall in population growth due to collapsing immigration; although the impact will not be uniform.

According to the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation’s (NHFIC) latest forecasts, released last month, Greater Melbourne’s and Greater Sydney’s housing markets will be thrown into deep structural oversupply in 2021 and 2022 as immigration collapses:

 

This data points to further rental falls across Sydney and Melbourne, at least for the next two years. And this will weight heavily on rental growth nationally.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. So now renters are subsiding their own rent through zero earnings inflation depleted savings replacing NG from savvy investors

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So rents are rising. That’s good news after the recent slight negative sideways movement!

  3. Stock on market in January has exploded – I would suggest it is going to be one of the biggest readings in years. Stock is already at historic highs.

    Prices fell between 2018-2019 by 10% in Sydney – we were told every day by this blog and CoreLogic it was a boom and prices were rising – historical data exposes just how manipulated we are.

    2018-2019 crash saw property listings explode – property listings are heading back to those peaks – or have already surpassed them in some cities.

    You are being lied to.