Morgan Stanley: Five reasons inflation is back!

Morgan Stanley thinks so:

1. Limited scarring due to a sharper but shorter cycle

Private sector risk appetite is largely intact, and public sector support is robust: A key difference in this cycle is that it resulted from an exogenous shock. This distinction matters because of how it has shaped both policy and private sector responses. Policymakers did not hesitate to provide significant support as moral hazard concerns were limited (in sharp contrast to an endogenous business cycle, where misallocation could have occurred). In turn, the damage to private sector risk appetite has been less severe than most feared and continue to assume.

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