Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

When will the Australian dollar turn lower?

Asian share markets are moving higher almost in unison, with Australian shares lagging but finally putting in a decent bid as Japanese stocks head above new decade highs. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed with both unable to put in new session highs, while Bitcoin continues to hang on above its technical breakout level above $36000, getting nicely overbought but still needing another kick higher as there are some internal rollover signs building:

The Shanghai Composite is meandering nowhere after the lunch break, currently down nearly 0.3% to 3581 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is bursting higher, up 0.5% to edge further above the 28000 point level, currently at 28376 points. Japanese markets are breaking out again to new decade highs with the Nikkei 225 surging more than 1.5%, closing at 28908 points as the USDJPY pair tried to breakout of its current short term sideways funk, and is slowly itching above the 104 level:

The ASX200 was able to finally find some buyers, lifting 0.4% to close just above the 6700 point level while the Australian dollar remains stuck as it wrestles with a stronger USD and is poised here at the mid 77’s going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are slowly edging higher in line with other risk markets with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still showing firm support as it begins to properly breakout above the 3800 point level:

The economic calendar includes the latest ECB minutes, then US initial weekly jobless claims and then the all important December retail sales print.

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Comments

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      I got washed out my trade because I’m a terrible trader, however my basic thesis has proven true so far:

      My starting assumption with crypto is that it is a manipulated market. When you have the ability to effortlessly print billions of liquidity you can move an otherwise liquidity constrained market in any direction you wish.

      Consequently although 20% over 3 days may seem large to most people it should be technically enough to flush out weak vol without freaking the hodlers who are use to such moves. I can’t see any ‘news’ trigger to justify an end to the immediate ponzi, so my base assumption is that it will continue.

      https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/01/macro-afternoon-1041/#comment-4058809

      If you go to the 3 day chart you can see the long tails that I was speaking of more clearly. It ended up bouncing pretty much exactly off its 38.2% fib, taking it from break out on 19th of Oct (break out uptick in vol).

      Tomorrow is the 15th Jan – supposedly the day that Tether are meant to submit all the documents. There are a lot of people aware of this and if the NY Court simply accepts the docs without comment, when they are expecting Tether collapse, then using Soro’s theory on ‘Reflexivity’ you’d expect a tear away movement in BTC price as their fears aren’t met and they go long or longer – certainly the lack of let up in Tether printing suggests the support isn’t letting up.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        Mmm hard to call. I think enough technical damage has been done by the last move down. Lot of sellers lurking at 41k and a couple of points lower and they’ll be ready to move down on weakness. But a bubbles gonna bubble so could easily go mental again if the proles decide it.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          True – but FOMO is a powerful force. Crypto is always liquidity constrained on the upside, while with Tether it is cushioned on the downside.

          If it gets a kick along it will burst through $41k effortlessly as Newton Traders and eventual bag holders FOMO back in over the weekend. But you are right, ponzi’s are gunna ponzi until they stop, once set in motion they will continue to expand until a pin arrives.

          There are plenty of pins, but imho the most likely ones remain connected to Tether, either from another injunctions associated with the NY Court case or even an emergency injunction by Securities commission if the rule it is a security – unless either of those come tomorrow I think it would remain bullish over the weekend.

  1. Interesting point regarding remote work / WFH forever.

    A friend at a large tech company has a new ‘team anywhere’ policy where you can literally work anywhere in the world (with permission). But HR will modify your salary according to a cost of living calculator. You can’t take your San Francisco salary to mexico for instance (or even to Nevada).

    It’s an interesting precedent – I wonder if folks would leave Sydney and move to (say) Bathurst if they could keep 80% of the Sydney salary??

    • The WFH condition that crossed my mind was about jobs in government, be it local, state, or federal. To use the NT as an example, considering they are always trying to get people to move to the NT will they prevent people who won’t live in the NT from applying? If they don’t then they just pay someone who probably won’t be that invested in the area and won’t spend their money locally. I can also imagine that whatever is deemed necessary travel for face to face would increase as well.

      On travel, a doctor was complaining to me that coronavirus has meant that they can’t have their taxpayer subsidized trip to Europe for conferences this year. Being someone who finds them painful the death of the conference has been a personal highlight of the past 12 months.

        • LeMon – I think you’ll find all those doctors (and accountants and lawyers) conferences are just to get tax deductible flights for a real holiday. There is an accounting conference for australian accountants at vail every year (or was, not this year). Absolute rort. Personally I would not allow deductions for offshore training. It’s usually a scam.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            The Aus orthopaedic guys always have their conference the week before the Rugby WC in the host country every four years.

            Shocking coincidence.

          • I have a mate who is a medical specialist. What you say is absolutely true. His specially has big conferences in the US snow fields every northern winter. We were planning a ski trip for a few years time to coincide with the conference…but…Covid….

          • Yep, brother is an orthodontist – conferences always at some OS ski resort. Mont Blanc in 2019 Total rort.

      • One of the economic benefits of NT salaries is that the salary gets spent in the state and so there is some velocity of funds travelling around. If the NT paid remote workers in Victoria for instance then that money leaves the Territory and doesn’t come back.

        I have seen some NSW government outsourcing deals where you can move the function anywhere so long as it is in NSW – and I can see the point of that. It’s also why Amazon established some data centres in NSW – NSW Govt said it needed to be within the jurisdiction.

  2. COVID everywhere by winter

    COVID everywhere by winter
    January 13, 2021 at 5:14 pm
    Churchill Capital 4 looks interesting. I’m aiming for 23 from the current 14 by the end of the week.

    Anyone follow me? Probably sell tonight though.

  3. Re Trump:

    Even if the Republicans impeach him and prevent him ever holding office again, can they prevent him establishing or financing a new political party?

    Given Citizens’ United, it seems unlikely the Supreme Court would allow that.

    Until he dies, Trump might be a conservative third force – like the DLP in Australia – whose net effect will be to split the Republican vote and keep them out of office.

    Re Senate:

    Also, if the Democrats create two new Democrats States (Outer DC and Puerto Rico) they may control the Senate for decades.

    Re Supreme Court:

    Get ready for a new Judicial Procedures Reform Bill:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937

    This time the conservative judges are much younger.

    • My understanding is that Trump first requested peaceful demonstrations and went on to inform that there was a need to fight like hell, in the speech in question. By definition, the word “fight” may involve struggle with violence or without violence (a struggle). That Trump requested peaceful demonstrations before using the word “fight”, I believe that if a court was asked to determine whether Trump had incited violence, it would have no choice but to find that he had not. Therefore, I see the impeachment of Trump for insurrection as no more than a political maneuver. In my opinion, the West is in deep trouble due to the politics we have in the West today. Please note I dislike the major parties in both Australia and the US.

      • The significance of the Supreme Court (Citizens United, etc) is that even if Trump were convicted of a crime and barred from office, you couldn’t stop him taking revenge against the Republicans by financing a third party which would split their vote.

        That would be fatal for them, possibly for decades.

        They may need to hold their noses and take a short term hit for supporting him until he is out of office. The alternative for them could be far worse.

        • Hello Steve,

          Please note that I was not commenting on your opinion that “if the Republicans impeach him and prevent him ever holding office again, can they prevent him establishing or financing a new political party?” I was simply taking advantage of you mentioning Trump to make a comment in regard to the latest MSM sensationalism in regard to Trump. By the way, I find what you wrote plausible if the US Senate found against him.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Trump didn’t fund his own campaigns why would he someone else’s? Trump is over, its only been one week since he disappeared from twitter and already nobody cares about what he says.

      • There’s a constitutency out there who believe the election was stolen, and they’ll go on believing that until they die.

        For narcissistic politicians, what is more important than their legacy? Just look at the way Australian politicians keep popping up.

        Trump doesn’t need to win an election. He doesn’t even need to come close. He just need to divert enough votes to wreak revenge on those he perceives have slighted him.

        He might even use that prospect as a negotiating chip with Pence: resign on the understanding that Pence will pardon him, and if Pence tries to double-cross him, threaten revenge.

        Pence might even make a pardon conditional upon Trump refraining from political activity (including financing) in the future.

        Win-Win.

        The Art of the Deal!

          • Would not be surprised if that was the case. Though, maybe he believes to achieve what is most important is to achieve what is second most important first.

          • Hey Smithy,
            Not sure if you saw the response to your comment in the Rudd piece. Apparently the commentariats Overton window has dramatically moved left over the past 5 years…
            thoughts?

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Dude everybody knows Bush stole the 2000 election. What difference did it make? The point is you can try and steal the next one, carrying on because you couldn’t manage to steal it is just pathetic.

          Hell the fat ass even said ‘Hillary is the most disappointed, why didn’t they steal it for me’ – because Trump stole it with Cambridge Analytica and Wikileaks…

          • Three new SCOTUS are directly linked to those decisions back in the day, bonus round Bush Jr used the enron jet to flick around stitching things up, Gore flew commercial.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          To do that he needs access to the network. No access, no power.

          Trump is being erased from social media. He only has purchase while he has access to social media. Another leader will be adopted to voice the concerns of fly-over land.

          The fact that a handful of private companies control the public forum is a problem for any group that wants to challenge orthodoxy.

          • The Privatisation of Censorship is a huge concern.

            At least with state censorship there is recourse to the courts, even if it is not always effective.

            With private censorship you don’t even know what the criteria are. And if you do, how do you challenge them?

            And this is now in the hands of companies which are facing anti-trust cases in the US and competition cases against them in the EU.

            Even if there is no explicit agreement between Big Tech and the Government, the game has sufficiently few players that they can all work out what their optimal strategy is: Cooperation!

          • Ever heard of Mastodon? You can say whatever the f#ck you want and no-one, and I mean noone can censor you. What they can do is chose not to follow you and your network shrinks.

            All this hoopla about censorship from the private sector when there are a tonne of choices, but it’s government censors that took out piratebay from Australia.

          • Is Mastodon dependent on other players in the game, in the same way that Parler was?

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler#Shutdown_by_service_providers

            Can it survive if other major players buckle to pressure to make life difficult for it?

            And if it is so niche that it does not depend on other players, will it be so niche that no-one outside its narrow membership ever hears its message?

            In which case it will still be effective censorship.

            Except in rare cases (like Dennis v United States) governments are not interested in censoring purely private conversations. They become concerned when the speakers begin to attract a larger audience.

          • To clear up any confusion, by “Privatisation of Censorship” I was not suggesting that the Tech Titans would pursue censorship for its own sake.

            I’m suggesting that the government will effectively “contract out” censorship to them on terms which are vague and with no avenues for redress, and that the tech companies will go along with this because it’s in their own commercial interests to cooperate with the state.

            It’s a return to the old days of newspaper censorship. Any Letter to the Editor which challenged the orthodoxy was confined to the circular file and never saw the light of day.

            As with the early printing press, the early internet promised an escape from that. But now it seems the major players are devising strategies to counter the threat.

      • Trump and/or his family may be politically dead. That does not mean a number of the ideas he used to obtain the US presidency are also politically dead. At least close to 50% voted for him. I wonder what percentage of that near 50% are simply fed up with the status quo of Globalization and neoliberal trickle down economics? Maybe a good bit more than that near 50%? Who knows, there might be a similar proportion, or maybe a lot more that a similar proportion of Democrats that would vote against Globalization and neoliberal trickle down economics? Though of course, what has what the majority really want got to do with today’s Western democracies?

          • To me: fear seems provide a good part of the base of racism; ignorance seems to provide a good part of the base of bigotry Ignorance; and Western democracy seems provide a good part of the base of discontent. As for whether I agree with MAGA, I suppose it depends on what the US believes it was great at and what it decides to replicate from that belief.

          • Ascribing 75,000,000 votes for Trump as racism is as brutally simple minded as it is delusional.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Oh yes of course can’t call a spade a shovel to the sensitive snowmobiles in MAGA. But say that it was because “ultra left” and hey presto, your bigotry is instantly veneered into contemporary politics.

            But I listen to alt right douchebags all the time and I know what I’m hearing now they’ve finally come to terms with Trumps exit.

            “BLM should go back to Africa” I’ve heard all day.

          • Ascribing 75 million votes as “for Trump” rather than “for the Republican candidate” might be a tad disingenuous as well.

        • Trump didn’t create the upheaval, he’s just the vector by which a vast mass of p1ssed off people expressed their displeasure. Trump may go away but their displeasure won’t. In fact, those who feel they were robbed in the election may feel something much stronger than displeasure.

          • Yep and to blithely dismiss this as racism whilst simultaneously observing the momentum of the same issues building in Australia is a strange misread.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Even if Trump is not impeached, he will be destroyed via every mean possible. The House Democrats was only a few minutes away from being lynched : it is more a matter of luck than foresight that none of them died.

    • President elect George Bernard Shaw

      Though I take your point about Trump, Republicans are keeping themselves out of office.
      Also agree re Outer DC and Puerto Rico. And possibly other moves, supreme court moves, legalising aliens etc. Will be a one party country. The US will become like California, then UK then South Africa if left unchecked.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Bill Clinton commuted the 58 year sentence of convicted terrorist Susan Rosenberg who was involved in the 1983 US capitol bombing.

          She now is on the board of a group that handles BLM fundraising. Good to see that she has moved on to other productive endeavors.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            What is it with these Rosenbergs?

            Is she any relation to the Rosenberg spies that gave the plans of the A-bomb to the Soviets? They got the chair.

          • Bit of a coincidence, they were covered on a youtube channel called ‘the cold war’ a few weeks ago. Can recommend BTW.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Only that these ‘Rosenbergs’ seem to be deceitful, untrustworthy and prone to domestic terrorism and treason.

            Oh and please, Stewie is fine, we are all frens – the only person to call me Griffin was Mr Brady my 6th grade primary school teacher.

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      Meanwhile…

      Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton today announced the arrest of Rachel Rodriguez for election fraud, illegal voting, unlawfully assisting people voting by mail, and unlawfully possessing an official ballot. Each charge constitutes a felony under the Texas Election Code. Rodriguez was exposed in a Project Veritas video last fall while she engaged in vote harvesting leading up to the 2020 election.

      https://breaking911.com/breaking-texas-election-official-arrested-for-widespread-vote-harvesting-and-fraud/

  4. sold all NCM at small profit seconds after gold crashed and bought 500 late arvo for $26.69 just in case I am wrong and they don’t fall below $26 or $25 or $24 again.

  5. Well, I met ermo!

    He came and we sat near the dying tomatoes and talked for 3 Coopers greens.

    I got a couple of kilos on him, but not a million. And I’m on my 4th day of fast, down 4kg and currently having a martinus.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Good on ya bloke! Work hard and achieve results!! Now push those pedals…

      (Oh, and I’d never be able to meet either of you because I’m not into blue collar manual labour type workers or IT nerds that look after my computer. Very similar lower class types. Each to their own I suppose).

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Hey, that was a bit unfair. Putting the show on before the tickets were sold. We were waiting for the live stream event but now it’s ancient history. The least you two can do now is a detailed commentary Fri or WE.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          You need to purchase and install a cheap trip computer on your bike Harry so we can compete on distance traveled.
          Ill find the receipt from Turramurra cycles so you’ve got that. I forgot to bring it yesterday.

      • Contracts … helps to read them too and then not blame the other party for anything viewed as negative.

        The sovereignty issue is curious considering the ramifications of the Atlantic Treaty – back in the day.

        Control is subjective considering the aforementioned and one has to reconcile that the U.K. fought to be in the single market whilst waving the neoliberal flag, hence what aspects of neoliberalism the E.U. has is relative to the inclusion of the U.K. Lest one forgets article 50 was triggered by a political ploy gone bad and then decided to stick to their guns.

        This is mirrored in Trumpism where if things don’t go your way you throw out your toys from the play pen and then blame everyone else.

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