Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar dislocates from greenback amid dirt frenzy

Risk is wavering throughout Asian stock markets with only Japanese stocks advancing as the USD firms against most of the major currencies in the lead up to tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting. While half of Reddit is watching GME, the other half are still watching Bitcoin which still can’t get out of its Friday night breakdown phase, deflating to the $31K level and still below trailing ATR resistance at the $34K level which could prove too high:

The Shanghai Composite is trying to get back above the 3600 point level, currently up a handful of points at 3575 going into the close, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has lifted only 0.2% as it tries to get above the 30000 point level, currently at 29445 points. Japanese markets are slowly climbing higher, with the Nikkei 225 finishing 0.2% higher to 28603 points while the USDJPY pair has firmed slightly in the afternoon session as the USD, heading back to the 103.70 level:

The ASX200 returned from the Australia Day holiday/introspection/woke-wankfest with a sharp decline, finishing 0.6% to finish at 6780 points while the Australian dollar had a small sniff at a new intraweek high before the latest inflation print saw it fall back towards the 77 handle and looking set to rollover again:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are dwindling fast going into the European open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still showing a desire to get back to last week’s intraweek high at the 3850 point level, but can it get back on track:

The economic calendar continues with German consumer confidence, US durable orders and then the eagerly awaited FOMC meeting at the Federal Reserve, with a private crude oil inventory stock print.

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Comments

  1. ChristopherMEMBER

    I jumped on the Wall St Bets discord today for a look, this train looks like it has a long way to run.

      • ChristopherMEMBER

        No idea there was over 30,000 people when I was on and that was like 1 am Eastern Time in the US, chat was moving so fast my computer couldn’t keep up!

  2. It s about sticking it to WS short Hedge Funds.Everyone should buy some $GME and make them Not Lendable/really high sell limit

    GME is going to be well over $1,000 soon. Firms will have to liquidate their others positions.I hope for a Domino effect if it reaches few $k..

  3. Becker is better when he sticks to this stuff and not Stan Grant- like editorialist rubbish.

      • Prove it.

        You have to attribute and then make a rebuttal based on those facts. You may be entitled to your own ignorance, but your not entitled to make ignorant noises and then pass them off as informed. Unless you support Agnotology on one hand and then bray loudly about its effects.

          • That article seems typical of economics skippy. 8000 words to say ” the value of an asset that is not currently being sold is indeterminate and agreed value depends on who is making the assessment and why.”
            If you commented more like this than the linked article people might actually care what you say.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “Depending on the study, between eight and 26 people own half of the world’s wealth, and if money isn’t a good means to describe them, then that is a failure to describe the world as it is.”

      I’m sure changing the date of Australia Day will be the blow that begins the dismantling of this Global Plutocracy.
      Good thing the ABC is on to this Change the date ad nauseam

  4. Some good news from the US. 45 GOP senators vote to throw out the impeachment – suggesting the Dems will struggle to get the 2/3 majority needed to convict Trump.

    Perhaps the next Governor of Florida!!

    • – Only “Anon” ? Not even “Q Anon” ???
      – Those GOP senators are cowards. When they are on TV then they praise the Trumpster but behind the scenes these GOP senators & GOP representitives say that they want only ONE thing: Get rid of the Trump and his crime family and Trumpism. No, I do think the impeachment does have a much better chance of succeeding than many people would like to think. An impeachment of Trump will merely be symbolic but after the impeachment there is a much better chance the country can go back to some sort of normalcy.
      – Trump governor of Florida ? He doesn’t stand a chance. Trump has burnt too many bridges, made too much enemies in the GOP.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        I can’t wait to see them all in 4 years trying to point out the bad parts of Trump as they seek the Republican nomination whilst at the same time defend not impeaching him. There’s a logic tightrope.

        • – Trump promised to “drain the swamp” and that got him A LOT OF votes. But Trump is a “swamp creature” as well. Like all the other swamp creatures in DC. Trump rails against the “Coastal elites” while he is part of that same “coastal elite” / establishment as well.
          – No, I don’t think the voters will remember if Trump would have been impeached. Four years is a LONG LONG time for A LOT OF voters
          – On top of that: I see that the right wing FOX News is losing viewers to the more right wing news outlet (TV ??) called NEWSMAX. NOT a good sign …………….

      • Long live Anonymous!

        Trump has endorsed Sanders (who worked for him) to be Arkansas Governor so will be a test to see whether she can win that nomination. Rubio is worried about the Florida senate seat with Ivanka moving into the neighborhood.

        • – Do Sanders & Ivanka REALLY vthink they stand a chance of becoming governor of Arkansas & Florida ? I don’t know if you got the memo but the Trump brand has become radioactive. No one wants to touch the Trump crime familiy (any more). And all former White House employees have a hard time finding new employment.
          – Ivanka was tolerated because her daddy was Trump. But with Trump gone Ivanka has lost her appeal as well.

          • Lol — 70 million folks still voted for him. “Toxic” with democrats isn’t a bad thing in a red state. Like far too many Australians you’ve been fed TDS of the MSM. I lived in the States for 7 years and have quite a few american friends. It’s not toxic.

        • – TDS ???
          – The Trumpster and his cronies have stabbed those 70 million voters in the back and in spite of that these idiots have voted for the Trumpster and his enablers ?
          – I simply don’t listen to both sides of the MSM anymore. Because they have become both too much of a propaganda outlet. And especially the right wing/Republicans have become masters in gaslighting the US public, including those 70 million US voters. There are out on the internet much better informed sources who do have a much better grasp on what’s REALLY going on and are willing to bash both “the left” and “the right”.
          – And this gaslighting is also done by a number of our australian “news outlets” as well. Here there is also a relentless stream of right wing propaganda being poured out. And when you have followed this blog for a decent amount of time then you should be able to know what I am talking about.

    • Bold call – but won’t happen. Vaccines won’t stop the spread (not proved yet that you are still infectious and can pass it on). I was speaking to someone on the weekend who’s friend in Melb had it – was formerly a very competitive runner and 3 months after recovery still only has 30% lung function and can’t do more than walk. F that shit – I don’t want “mild covid” – does the vaccine just stop you getting seriously ill or might you still get some of these long covid impacts like loss of lung function and loss of taste (but otherwise healthy).

      • We’re waiting on the poor [email protected] in other countries to provide that info for us. My dr has told me that she thinks I should wait on getting the vaccine. With the way in which my immune system is probably compromised (not 100% sure cos there hasn’t been much research into ME/CFS, but now that a super large proportion of people who have survived covid will develop it we should finally get some good research done into good old post viral fatigue) I’ve been told the balance of risk/reward doesn’t add up for rushing into getting the vaccine, esp as it isn’t floating around in the community yet. I hope your friend gets better.

        I have a feeling that the vaccine isn’t the silver bullet we are all hoping for. If it gives a significant enough % of the population a better immune response that may be the best we can hope for. I hope will all I have in me that the improved immune response means no long covid, but we just don’t have that info yet and probably won’t begin to get an idea until the end of this quarter.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There was a bloke on the wireless this morning talking about how Straya can get things done when it wants to, citing instances like the homeless being housed and the unemployed finally having enough money to live on during the lockdown. Fair enough I thought, it’s about the will not the ability. You know what he used that as an argument for?

      International students. It’s only the lack of will stopping the decision to flood the country again. He didn’t give a rats’ about the homeless and unemployed, he just wanted to use them as an example to get those meal tickets…sorry, students back.

      They have no shame.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        LdMFAO. Thank you. Great delivery btw.

        The interviewee proves the mantra that where there’s will there’s a way. [sic]
        And where there’s a Wu there’s a flu, too, I guess.

    • Tudge is dumb as fvk and been useless in every portfolio he has held. This will be no exception.

  5. with all the back and forth re. the ABC it’s worth pointing out that once upon a time they did do journalism:

    https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-8690

    PM: No, no. This Government has pursued policies of inclusion, we always listen to
    interests groups, in the Tax Summit of 1985 they were all arraigned around me as
    Treasurer.

    PL: But there are 10,000 kids sleeping in the streets of Sydney, that’s not inclusion Mr Keating.

    PM: And who’s done more about the homeless policy than this Government? No other
    goverment, in terms of the policies now about the youth, to get all those young
    people back into work. I had Dr Hewson telling me I don’t see anybody, I don’t
    listen to anybody I go around this country all the time.

    PL: But you only talk to businessmen and people with suits on don’t you?

    Lyneham was a legend.

  6. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    The Chiefs have no offensive line left, but how do you stop Hill and Kelce? Mahomes will show he is the new GOAT, eclipsing the old GOAT in the most memorable SuperBowl of the last 20 years.

    Chiefs 31 – 24 Buccaneers RIP Gronk

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Many years ago I had to do battle with some American bean counters to keep a factory operating in Australia that employed a lot of people (many of them were Vietnamese Refugees)

    We kept it going for many years until
    eventually technology moved ahead and it had to go . However, the buzz I got from keeping those
    hopeful and now solid citizens employed and
    better able to establish themselves remains with me to this day

    So how nice to see Twiggy F giving a boost to
    R M Williams or Bega Cheese take over Lion Dairy …..(Thanks China don’t call us we’ll call you ….)

    Yes Straya … you can do it ……confidence is a wonderful thing ……..and yes Gladys ..we can even make trains ….

  8. Glen Waverley news.
    At street party last night met our new Chinese neighbour. Early thirties, 6 years as a plasterer has just laid out over $1.5 mill for a non-rice castle house and reno before move-in. To match the big MB wagon. Nice young guy, no kids, but where did the money come from. He hopes his parents (financiers?) will come out soon.

    Straws in the wind, two 2 storey better than average Mac mansions close by have just put up signs for private sale, not auction. Do they know the market is shakey and do not want to test it in public?

  9. TailorTrashMEMBER

    “They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    For trying to change the system from within
    I’m coming now, I’m coming to reward them
    First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin
    I’m guided by a signal in the heavens
    I’m guided by this birthmark on my skin
    I’m guided by the beauty of our weapons
    First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin “

    https://amp.news.com.au/world/asia/china-nz-making-australia-envious-after-signing-fta/news-story/5e8d60d41a3a703afc7c1e83262a685d

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      S’all righ’ bro. Dan Andrews has been on tuit for over 2 years eh. With that Nue Zulund FTEH signed and Machurian Dan already party [heh] to OBOR, this means the next thung ewe no there’ll be a bridge from Melbourne to Wellington.

      And then you can gut over it, eh bro? 😁🚐🚝

  10. So many positive MB articles and anecdotes today…is it possible to conceive a more perfect setup for a blindside move.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I smell skullduggery. Is this like someone accusing someone else of being anti sem etic for flying the flag of Israel ‘upsidedown’?

      Oh. Well. If you’re full-on colourblind.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Albo knows how to handle the situation,

      “The Opposition Leader also defended his recent suggestion of holding a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians in the constitution on January 26, denying it was a “captain’s pick” made without consultation with colleagues.

      Mr Albanese said it was not a “policy” but just a “constructive idea”.

    • Christopher Kennett

      If you think British Colonisation was a disaster for Aboriginal Australians, then why is the life expectancy and income of that group much better than Papua New Guineans, despite PNG people having more advanced technology (eg. bow and arrow, pottery) than Aborigines?

      Why are there now 400,000 more Aborigines alive today than pre-settlement? (5x increase)

      The major issues in Aboriginal Society today are: drug abuse, domestic violence, STDs. How exactly are these the faults of White Australians?

      If the First Fleet (1500 people) was bad, why do we allow the equivalent of 200x First Fleets each year of overseas migrants? Will the ‘new Australians’ Chinese (note their treatment of Uighurs) and Indians be more or less concerned than legacy White Australians about Aborigines?

      • desmodromicMEMBER

        It’s about access to country. Not any country but my country. Solve that and most of the other issues go away. Besides your logical is weak and your numbers wrong.

  11. going for a walk and when I am back I want to see gold price at $1900 usd, DOW futures -800, NAS futures -400.