Macro Afternoon

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

| 105 comments

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Share markets are rising in co-ordination following the Biden inauguration, with risk appetite soaring overnight, with the USD in full retreat as gold and silver is breaking out to new highs. The latest numberwang saw the Aussie dollar reach new highs, but Bitcoin is slowly deflating however, again selling off throughout the session to be back below the $35K level and at a new weekly low, with momentum now oversold and signalling a potential breakdown:

The Shanghai Composite has broken above the 3600 point level again, up more than 1% going into the close, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has finally  stopped blowing higher with a scratch session today to close just short of the 30000 point level. Japanese markets however are moving higher again with the Nikkei 225 up by 0.8% to close at 28756 points despite the USDJPY pair breaking down on USD weakness, sending it back towards the 103 handle and looking very precarious:

The ASX200 made another good advance, closing 0.8% higher to 6823 points, while the Australian dollar lifted sharply on the weak USD meme, heading towards the recent weekly highs to almost get back to the 78 level in what looks a little unsustainable:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up over 0.6% going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a continued breakout above the 3800 point level and looking extremely oversold:

The economic calendar includes weekly initial jobless claims and US housing starts.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. migtronixMEMBER

    Rorke’s Drift – you “hedged” a large Trump win bet by shorting ASX with a 6 months span, 3 months ago.

    Hows that going?

      • Fishing72

        I’d say WA would notice. They’d no longer be forced to financially support the self satisfied, ghoulishly pale and faux edgy Victorians for a start. You can buy a lot of warm Emu Bitter cans with the amount of money they’d no longer be spending through underwriting the Melbournite’s fetish for selling coffees to each other whilst mass importing ever more exotic buyers for their weather oppressed real estate market.

          • Fishing72

            Bintang factory employs too many Indonesians to ever think they’d abandon their thirsty West Oz mates. Then you’ve got to remember how many ICU beds they’d free up in their hospitals if they ever stopped the influx of ghost- white Victorians who cook themselves crispier than Canadian bacon within minutes of exposure to the Indonesian sunshine and it’s not hard to imagine who Indonesia will side with in the stoush.

            Who’s going to get on board as an ally to Victoria ? Tasmania …..lol. Maybe one of their feeder cities on the sub continent.

        • MCBoyah

          Being a Victorian I am saddened by your accurate assessment. Also, you’re a surfer so I won’t have a go at you anyway.

    • Stephen Morris

      Look how difficult is was to achieve Brexit. And that was a country with a thousand year history leaving an organisation which itself had a legal mechanism allowing members to withdraw.

      The recitals to The Constitution Act refer to the parties agreeing to “unite in one indissoluble Federal Commonwealth under the Crown”.

      Whilst Western Australia is not mentioned in that paragraph, its interpretation would be in the hands of High Court judges, judges appointed by the Commonwealth. It is inconceivable (at least under current circumstances) that they would contemplate giving legal sanction to the departure of Australia’s principal source of export income.

      It would require a civil war, or at the very least a decades long war of attrition in the Federal Parliament, blocking legislation at every turn.

      And countries like Indonesia would be looking on with interest. If Western Australia had to fight for its independence, how could it simultaneously defend its northern provinces?

      • Stephen Morris

        Of course, in the United States, Calexit or Texit might be on the cards

        As the great man once said:

        Any people, anywhere, being inclined and having the power, have the right to rise up and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better. This is a most valuable, a most sacred right, a right which we hope and believe is to liberate the world. Nor is this right confined to cases in which the whole people of an existing government may choose to exercise it. Any portion of such people, that can, may revolutionize, and make their own of so much of the territory as they inhabit.

        Abraham Lincoln, 12 January 1848, Speech to Congress on the Secession of Texas (from Mexico)

      • AnonMEMBER

        On the flipside – look how easy it has been for the States to arbitrarily shut the borders – again without any real constitutional authority to do so.

        If I was game WA politician I’d have a referendum and then start working out the divorce – just stop sending royalty cheques to canberra and tell local firms to send their taxes to WA Treasury.

        What is Scomo going to do? Send in troops? Laughable. “Australia” will fold quicker than Superman on laundry day.

        • GingerMEMBER

          Unworkable, won’t happen. States retain royalties. On top of that is that corporations laws are federal. Export income? – feds say mine!

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          When I worked on FMG Cloudbreak for almost 4 years the subject would often come up regarding WA independence.
          Many WA locals there were quite keen on the idea and would often say so.
          I would always laugh and say , “Us east coasters out number you guys 10 to one! We would kick your ar$es in the first 10 mins of a Civil War!”
          This would cause many grumbles encouraging me to add,
          “You could always ally yourselves with China or Indonesia”
          “Ya would have to pick what you’d prefer for Western Australia though,….Islam or Communism”
          More Grumbles.

      • ColinMEMBER

        Good point regarding security. I’m sure there’ll be plenty of sellout facilitators (currently agitators?) that would volunteer to assist in vertically integrating it into the Red regime from further north….. I’m told they’ve already built a military grade airport in the Pilbara in recent years to protect “their” interests……

      • elasticMEMBER

        If WA ever seceded I’d migrate straight over there from Vic. They are loaded up with minerals those Westies.

    • Freddy

      WA would only last a few hours before Australia invaded them and overthrew their government. Western Territory has a nice ring to it.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Almost all. I don’t think anyone blames Trump for Australia’s super overconfidently arrogant performance against India in the last couple of tests.

      That was clearly a selection issue. Which could have easily been fixed by a doubling of the Mitch factor.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Whilst we don’t agree on many things, our dearth of Mitchmases did cost us.

        Imagine three! A ten year brutal unbeaten reign would await.

        Alas, there seems to be a lack of Mitches in the junior ranks of the shield.

        • footsore

          Apparently the cricketing elders warned of the dangers of three Mitches and their prophecies were heeded by the selectors. The world is weary, and has seen too much. To unleash such dark powers would lead to its demise. Boof was all for it. Whenever he would start demanding it happen they’d just tell him that one of the pokies was paying out and he’d rush off while they finished the team sheet.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          What ↑ said.

          But you are allowed two, so hang out your stockings for an early Mitchmas and they might both get filled.

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    If I have to endure just one more sh1t unsubtle inelegant medicore poetry piece wrapped up as a galvanising call for harmonious joinings of snowflakes… 🙉😤😭

  9. Olaf

    It is good we can get back to cuddly, inoffensive, childish memes about Bernie Sanders mittens.
    If we can no longer blame Trump for bearing the mark of the beast at least we can look over there at Bernie’s mittens, giggle like little children and let the adults get on with looting the system while we praise them for giving us chills while having a countrywide embrace like rays of light emanating from the Lincoln Memorial.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      You know I feel so dirty
      When they start talking cute
      I wanna tell you that I love you
      But the post is probably mute

  10. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The Pub at the East Gippsland costal hamlet were I’m holidaying this week was shut earlier this week due to “lack of staff”!
    It’s the only food and beverage place in town, with a nice view of a raging Bass Straight. Literally the only. The next closest is 12km away.
    Talking to the all Aussie wait staff tonight, and the said the pub was previously staffed with “backpackers”. And the “business model” didn’t cost in Aussie staff.
    How can you run a pub in a seasonal costal village that is closed for two thirds of a day at the tail end of peak season. There’s probably a 2 month season, if that.
    Merde!
    ‘Straya.

    • Popcod

      Interesting. I’m in the process of hopefully buying a place out that way. The East Gippsland FB jobs board has a lot of hospitality work available.

        • Popcod

          Haha! Can you blame me? I’ve been wanting to go rural for 5+ years. I may finally be able to do it. Fingers crossed I can pull it off

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Lovely place with decent rainfall.

        The hospitality work looks very seasonal. If you can get work for the other 9 months of the year, Summer looks good (until the borders open).

        • Popcod

          ATM the plan is to commute once a week to my current job (nuts but that’s life). It’s not yet sorted that I’m moving but I’m actually taking action instead of obsessively planning so we’ll see what happens. I’ve been thinking about this for 5+ years (in fact while I was still in China).

  11. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand’s Housing circus: When can we expect to see North American priced serviced lots / sections in New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern ? …

    More public housing won’t ‘fix’ the housing crisis … Miriam Bell … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/124015981/more-public-housing-wont-fix-the-housing-crisis

    Ardern warns house prices are unsustainable, new plan to tackle housing affordability … Jason Wall NZ Herald / NewstalkZB

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/jacinda-ardern-on-housing-plans-and-new-us-president-joe-bidens-inauguration/

    … The median price for a serviced lot in the United States is about $US 50,000 …

    Lot Values Hit Record Highs ( $US 50k ) … NAHB

    http://nahbnow.com/2019/11/lot-values-hit-record-highs/

    … meantime … in Dallas, USA … 25 year old teacher Lani Huang tells her story living on $58,400 a year with her recently purchased home of $155,000 …

    … therefore house price 2.6 times her single income … with boyfriend under strict instructions to contribute additional funding ! …

    How a 25-year-old teacher making $58,000 in Dallas spends her money … VIDEO … CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/17/58k-a-year-dallas-millennial-money-lani-huang.html

    Lani Huang, 25, earns $58,400 as a public middle school math teacher in Dallas. She made an additional $1,212 from teaching virtual summer school and making instructional math videos for her school district and recently bought a home for $155,000. This is an instalment of CNBC Make It’s Millennial Money series, which profiles people around the world and details how they earn, spend and save their money.

    • robert2013

      I just bought a house in Perth metro for $220k. I know you’re talking about NZ, but there is significant regional variation in ANZ just like there is in the USA.

  13. migtronixMEMBER

    Ayo silver

    “BIDEN ORDER WILL REQUIRE THAT PEOPLE WEAR MASKS IN AIRPORTS, ON MANY PLANES AND TRAINS -Officials”

  15. footsore

    I done did thunk something. Now that the great awakening has occurred, and peeps are realising that it all a LARP, or perhaps an art piece by Julian Assange that was funded by David Walsh, what will the Q Anon kiddies do? Playing along with politics at home won’t be so fun for them now. Do they join other groups? Or do they just realise that it was a stage that they were going through and now go back to the normal sorts of petty histrionics that the rest of us throw when something isnot to our liking? I hear gardening is good. Perhaps Gardening Australia could take off in America. It can be our gift to the peeps of the U S of A.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I expect the visit numbers for Online DnD sites and PronHub to return to close to pre 2017 levels.

      Won’t be quite as many as back then as at least 2% of that domain will be dead from COVID by now.

      And a good 5% from accidents with bleach and chloroquine adventures.

      • WiZZ of Ozz

        Yes very good to many sheep in paddock eating to many resources 30% would put us back on the road but 50% new golden age ye Har iam cowboy on dead bodies I ride

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Considering how much it would have pi$$ed of the Clintons and the DNC I’m surprised he didn’t.

        • morgs

          Also would have let him better recast history with him as the hero. In the end he just looks ridiculous with no hope of redemption.

  16. RaglanParade

    Can we really trust that so called International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) is actually working in the best interests of free speech in society?

    The IFCN is subsidiary of the journalism research organization Poynter Institute – something we know very little about given it’s control on the global narrative and influence on social media.

    Craig Newmark is a board member of the Poynter Foundation and donated $1 million to it in 2015.[5][6] In 2017, the Poynter Institute received $1.3 million from the Omidyar Network and the Open Society Foundations.

    IFCN has also had huge donations from the Wikimedia Foundation (links to a lot of global billionaires who are left leaning) and huge donations from Open Society Foundations which is an international grantmaking network founded by business magnate George Soros!

    Firstly – lets explore the main player – Craig Newmark.

    Craig Alexander Newmark (born December 6, 1952) is an American billionaire internet entrepreneur and philanthropist best known for being the founder of the website craigslist. Through Craig Newmark Philanthropies, Newmark has contributed more than $40 million to journalism initiatives since 2015. Newmark also has a private charitable foundation, to which he contributed $50 million in 2016. In 2018 Newmark’s donations totaled $143 million. Newmark splits his time between San Francisco’s Cole Valley and the West Village in New York City.[21] He describes himself as a non-practicing, secular Jew. In 2014, he was one of 60 Democratic Party donors who urged the creation of a system of public election funding. Newmark has donated to the presidential campaign of Democratic Senator and former United States Secretary of State John Kerry.[1] He also supported former President Barack Obama.[27] In 2015, Variety reported that he contributed to the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton.

    So there you have it – Facebook’s independent third-party fact-checkers are all certified by the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN). The IFCN, a subsidiary of the journalism research organization Poynter Institute.

    https://www.facebook.com/journalismproject/programs/third-party-fact-checking/selecting-partners

    This means that Facebook (and Twitter) for that matter are using Democrat (and Jewish) “fact checkers” under the guise of “Independent Certification” to make sure that conservative content is removed from social media – so that “another Trump” cannot emerge and potentially the Republican Party is not able to ever reach Presidential Office again in the United States of America.

    Did you know that Craig Newmark controls the narrative on social media through his “fact check” bullshit and that he also actively donates to the Democrats?

    Did you know that the funding of Craig Newmarks IFCN network comes indirectly from George Soros and other billionaire elites through a murky web of foundations under the guise of charitable work?!

    I can guarantee that 99.99% of people haven’t joined these dots yet and when they do it’s gonna really open peoples minds to how the big tech elites used technology to silence the narrative on social media and interfere with democracy!

    Is what we witnessing truly “fact checking” or is it actually “opinion squashing” ?

    ******************

    The IFCN has also had donations from the Omidyar Network is a self-styled “philanthropic investment firm,” composed of a foundation and an impact investment firm.[1] Established in 2004 by eBay founder Pierre Omidyar and his wife Pam, Omidyar Network reports it has committed more than $992 million to nonprofit organizations and for-profit companies across multiple investment areas. In 2009, the Omidyar Network donated $2 million over two years to the Wikimedia Foundation, and at the same time, Matt Halpin of Omidyar Network was appointed to Wikimedia’s board of directors.

    So lets look at Wikimedia – Katherine Roberts Maher born April 18, 1983) is the chief executive officer and executive director of the Wikimedia Foundation. Maher states that she focuses on global digital inclusion as a way to improve and protect the rights of people to information through technology. Maher is based in San Francisco, California. She speaks English, Arabic, French, and German. Looking at her Wikipedia page – it is clear that she is a globalist – with a focus on developing other countries and not looking after America’s interests at all.

    It’s important to note at this point that Wikimedia and Wikipedia are linked (Wikimedia own Wikipedia) which means that the global tech elites involved in fact checking also have the ability to alter the worlds “history books” through changing the narrative for historical events being recorded on Wikipedia as well.

    In 2010, Google donated US$2 million to the Wikimedia foundation – and over the last decade a range of other tech giants and elite/billionaire based “foundations” have also donated to it as well. To put it simply – the whole “Wikimedia” thing is a toy of the global billionaires who circle jerk themselves donating to each other as a tax dodge under the guise of making information “freer” for the world.

    ***********************

    Open Society Foundations (OSF), formerly the Open Society Institute, is an international grantmaking network founded by business magnate George Soros. Open Society Institute was created in the United States in 1993 to support the Soros foundations in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. In 2015, Russia banned the activities of the Open Society Foundations on its territory, declaring “It was found that the activity of the Open Society Foundations and the Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation represents a threat to the foundations of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation and the security of the state”

    So there you have it – an entity that is banned in Russia for “state security reasons” has actively been donating to the IFCN network which “fact checks” social media in western societies to change the narrative!

    ********************

    Is anyone else joining the dots yet that the removal of Trump (and the reignition of globalisation) isn’t democracy working at all – but a coup through technology that has been in works ever since Trump was elected back in 2016?

    Does anyone else feel differently about the whole “fact check” bullshit on social media after reading all this?

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/46478965

    • Illis

      Great Comment. Many thanks for sharing! Who fact checks the fact checkers?? Technocracy and censorship go hand in hand.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Bloke, you’re too much of a bogon fat carnt to pull this excellence of a maneuver styles off. You’re still my most favourite tradie though, boner enduring wise!

  18. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Mark Latham is kinda like our Trump,…Scotty boy just doesn’t have the same gift with words,

    “Geez, you wouldn’t want Joe Hockey in the trenches with you.
    For 4 years he sucked up to Trump, all matey.
    Then soon as The Donald was out, he’s called him ‘deplorable’, the ultimate Clintonesque insult, and then started licking Biden’s balls.
    The ultimate backer-and-filler.”

    https://twitter.com/RealMarkLatham/status/1352196969842708480?s=19