Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian share markets are somewhat mixed and unsettled going into tonight’s newsflow with Trump “serving” his last day as US President, with focus and realisation of both further stimulus and big tax increases confusing risk appetites. Bitcoin is at another crossroads, having sold off throughout the session to be back below the $36K level and almost at a new weekly low, with momentum now oversold and signalling a potential breakdown:

The Shanghai Composite is flat again before the close, currently hovering just below the 3600 point level while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has put on another 0.5% to further extend its blowout from yesterday’s session, extending gains beyond the 29000 point level. Japanese markets are slowly deflating again with the Nikkei 225 off by 0.4% to close at 28504 points as the USDJPY pair is pushed lower on Yen buying, sending it back below the 104 handle and back in stall mode:

The ASX200 made another good advance, closing 0.4% higher to 6770 points, while the Australian dollar lifted sharply on the consumer confidence print, now back above the 77 handle as this short term swing play gains further momentum on the better risk-on mood:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are mixed so far going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a possible breakout above the 3800 point level after previously bouncing off weekly support:

The economic calendar includes two important events overnight, the latest Euro wide inflation print plus we find out if Joe Exotic gets a pardon alongside 100 other criminals (Bannon having been a midnight snack just a few hours ago…) as Trump finally drains his swamp in the wee hours of the morning.

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Comments

    • I’d love to see a video of Forrest catching covid from his Russian “interpreter”.

      I’m sure Reusa would be proud!

  1. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    you know you’re getting old when the hair dresser trims your eyebrows without asking

    • Yeah …. but who is funding this blogger …

      Reminds of that oligarch that ran to the U.K. after the Chicago boys were unceremoniously kicked to the kerb, not that they were originally set up by the Chiboys in the beginning or anything, but played the political exile card rather than fall in line with the rest for country first.

  2. COVID everywhere by winter

    “As of Nov. 23, Trump had granted clemency 44 times, including 28 pardons and 16 commutations. That’s the lowest total of any president since at least William McKinley, who served at the turn of the 20th century. Obama, by comparison, granted clemency 1,927 times during his eight-year tenure, including 212 pardons and 1,715 commutations.”

    Also, I don’t think Biden will get his tax increases through Congress the reality is that it’s controlled by Republicans and conservative Democrats.

    The next correction will be because certain sectors have massive profit in them not because of any nervousness or “uncertainty” over Biden’s agenda.

  3. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Who’s staying up for the inauguration?
    It starts at 3.30am so I don’t know whether to go to bed early and set my alarm or just stay up?
    🤔

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Depends. When did the Lizard people organise for the RWNJs to start unloading on all the woefully prepared state capitals? If that’s before the big I then I’ll still be up when it kicks off (at its alternative, indoors, and even more secure location).

      *waves at the Secret Service and a lot of sleepless State Governors*.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Mitch O’Connell “You pardon Assange and we’ll be far more likely to convict you for your second impeachment ‘trial’.”

        Entire US media and all the MB Pearl clutchers.“Sounds good to me, Orange man bad, so opposite must be good!”

      • my toranaMEMBER

        As a pearl clutcher I think the deployment of the national guard at this week’s levels is a bit fascist, don’t like it at all. The BLM, whatever harm they did, was about being freed of the oppressive forces already deployed against them for quite some time so the screaming about army being deployed against them was only an extension of their overall complaint, (noting that they did not seem to be aware of the three independent studies that have found police take black and white lives in equal proportions in the US). what are we arguing here? Surprise, mobs shift into mob behaviour and scare authorities.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If I had to list every idiotic and/or irrational group associated with American politics every time I posted about one or more of them I’d never get near the submit button. Don’t take absence of presence as presence of endorsement.

        Trump’s a dill.
        Biden might not make it through the day (natural causes, not insinuating). Not fit (and not well recently) to be Pres.
        America will be worse under the next Pres than under Obama (and that’s saying a lot).
        But Trump as leader of the free world and inciting violent rebellion? Because he’s a looooooser and can’t handle it? Nah, he gots to go.
        Lets hope the next 4 years are better than the last 12.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Whatever the media said Wilbur.

          Tell us some more about how much you hate Trump and what and idiot he was, as if you’d get much disagreement – even from me. Purge! Purge! It is good for you.

          Should I pull out the doll and you can point out all the places he touched you?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Sometimes “the media” are right. It does happen. If it helps, impeaching him a second time was just dumb. If it helps, happy all* the trespassers, murderer/s, thieves and vandals from last week’s madness are getting nailed by the FBI. They should help the states out on that for some earlier events too (with their own investigations). If it helps you can gif up your Obama doll and show me where his doctor offering subsidised health care for people who otherwise couldn’t get insurance touched you?

          Edit: *no matter what colour shirt or hat they were wearing.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Whatever is necessary to ensure the smooth passage of Democracy*.

          We’ll know in about 5 hours or so if it was actually warranted. No one else dying would be good. Do you want my views on pineapple on New York style pizza too? And whether olives have special meaning?

          *Coincidentally, harry’s to be first male child’s name.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      You can play drinking games to pass the time until 0330 – skull a beer every time an ABC reporter uses the “healing” word. Or Biden appears in a clip and mentions “unity”. For example.

      I give you about 40 minutes before involuntary sleepy-bo-bos.

  4. In southern California they have temporarily dropped the pollution standards because the crematoria need to work at twice the usual output

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/18/us/california-crematoriums-limit-suspension-coronavirus/index.html

    Being exceptionally exceptional they of course have their own variant in southern California as well L452R

    https://twitter.com/cychiu98/status/1350985418628587520

    Be careful with data in the hotspots at the moment, those who were doing tests etc. will be on the front line doing vaccines and full hospitals in these hot spots aren’t taking some people in who would normally go in.

    • COVID everywhere by winter

      I like Trump, but don’t really give a crap if he’s President or not. I couldn’t imagine being ate up for four years by one guy.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        The world has just got a lot less entertaining though.

        Suppose I’ll have to focus on the Pooh Bear arsehat now.

    • Could be the people there are less resistant to similar colds. But I guess we will find out if it reaches other towns/cities

  5. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Just making a post to see if it survives or if I’m blacklisted or something.

    My last couple of posts have disappeared, presumably moderated. I don’t know why, I don’t think I’m entitled to reasons, just arbitrary disappearance.

    • Some words cause automatic ditching, can’t remember what they are, someone else might know.

      • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

        Thanks, but they weren’t auto deleted. That happens quickly. These were posts that a moderator removed.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yep. Happened to me above re not 3d chess. The boys must be expecting trouble at mill tonight and have got the people mods up on their marching orders for the evening early. They might be using some clever forward thinking there. Mods might be in for a long night though.

          *waves at Mod#2*
          *admires sleeveless cardigan*

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Took a drive up the pacific highway from Artarmon to Gordon today . The “for lease “ signs are proliferating
    …just about every second commercial building has them
    Haven’t see it this bad since the early 90s recession

    Going to take a lot of “ innovation “ to fill all that space

  7. Donald Trump was to the presidency what John McEnroe was to tennis.

    Perhaps not the best player ever, but very entertaining and self-assured. He didn’t always conform to behavioural norms. He frequently lost his temper and shot his mouth off at various people.

    He won his share of games, but when he lost he found it hard to accept it when the umpire ruled against him. He would often throw a tantrum and say “You can’t be serious! The ball was in”.

    • McEnroe won a lot. And was unquestionably the best player in the world for a period. Trump is more akin Vanilla Ice. A self loving one hit wonder who’s novelty wore off quickly and lack of talent became more evident every time he took the stage.

      • +100. McEnroe had an outstanding 5 years and then a very good 6 or 7.
        Trump took a good economy from Obama and then gave it a mega sugar hit with the tax cut and then ….. not much good, punishing Americans for buying Chinese via tariffs, and the tit-for-tat reply by the Chinese punished American farmers; made a lot of noise but overall made America smaller and weaker than it has been for decades, especially compared to a rapidly rearming Russia and China.
        If the Chinese decided to invade Taiwan today it is not obvious Trump has bequeathed a military with enough of an edge over the Chinese close to their shore to do anything about it. Especially as the Chinese have shown re South China Sea and Taiwan that they employ toddler accounting … what’s theirs is theirs and what’s mine is theirs if they want it and they’ll throw a big tantrum to get it because they want it. Similar concept to Trumpian electoral accounting.