Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are no longer unsettled as the realisation that an adult will be in the Oval Office in a few days kicks in the risk spirits with broad gains across most markets and S&P futures looking bright for the return of traders from the US long weekend. Bitcoin is a bit disappointing, not going anywhere and still stuck below the $37,000 level, still unable to find a bid to get it back up to the previous $40,000 high:

The Shanghai Composite is flat, currently hovering just below the 3600 point level while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has soared higher, breaking out significantly again with a 2% plus session, well above the 29000 point level. Japanese markets are in reverse mode, taking back all of Monday’s losses with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.3% higher to 28616 points as the USDJPY pair jumps above the 104 handle after threatening to break down into a retracement below the 103.50 level after being in stall mode yesterday:

The ASX200 made a solid advance, closing 1.2% higher to 6742 points, heading straight back above the 6700 point level despite the Australian dollar putting on gains as well, with the Pacific Peso lifting back above the 77 handle in a short term swing play higher on the better risk mood:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are picking up sharply going into the London open as traders return to their desks on Wall Street, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a 0.6% surge as price tries to get back above the previous weekly support level:

 

The economic calendar has two very important releases tonight, both German centric (and hence European centric), the latest inflation figures and then the closely watched ZEW survey.

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Comments

  1. Folks look past Trump’s achievements and focus on his decorum to determine how good a president he is/was. Luckily for Biden, the same criteria will apply. Cue fawning media coverage. Maybe they should award him a Nobel peace prize already.

      • Christopher Kennett

        Lowest black unemployment in history. Highest rate of growth for minority-owned businesses in history.

        Oh well, back to the Democrat plantation for them.

        I know some American right-wing White nationalists. They are so tied up in race and hate that they couldn’t sell the positive message of Trump’s accomplishments.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It is possible to be a graceless fcukwad *while* being totally incompetent you know. They’re not exclusive attributes.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Not wrong. His comments today about Australia being a smart country and being able to do two things at once have been boring a hole in my schadenfreude detector all day.

          Shame he didn’t mention that statement didn’t apply to Parliament passing more than one piece of legislation at a time or calling an RC *and* implementing its recommendations.

          PS How are the lamposts and ropes futures in the US looking for the rest of the week? Asking for a friend.

          • RC’s aren’t called with the intentions of implementing recommendations. If parliament wanted to implement stuff they would set about passing some poorly though out laws with unintended consequences, not waste a year or 2 on an RC.

      • Trump was the first president to call out China. On that issue he was 100% right (and he was saying this since the 80s – opposing Nafta and the off-shoring of jobs).

        The first administration since Carter to not start any new wars. Again consistent with his message of why do we get in wars that aren’t their business – no profit in it.

        So those 2 are pretty big accomplishments in a bi-partisan sense. His stacking of the Supreme Court and Tax Cuts are also pretty decent achievements for a Republican president.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Didn’t say dumb, or ignorant, or clueless. E.g.:

          ‘China strategy’ = looser trade war
          Because incompetent.
          Thought he knew better than all those diplomats and public servants who literally resigned rather than stick around for the inevitable carcrash.
          Incompetent.

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    No matter the outcome in the next half-hour, this Indian effort with half their best XI missing is nothing short of amazing.

    • Don’t disagree. But the lack of a sense of urgency and ruthlessness by the Australians has been woeful this test and last. The seemed to think they would cruise to wins.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        We’re probably going to have to have that Mitchell Starc debate again soon as Cummins not getting the new ball is borderline criminal.

      • The problem was the crushing win in Adelaide gave a false sense of confidence and we got pumped in Melbourne. That was selectors fault as we kept burns in the team as a walking wicket. We thought we could carry him and hubris has a price – we needed to be ruthless in the selection room.

        In 3rd and 4th tests Lyon is shown up as not a good bowler when the other side is adept at facing spin and Starc was out of gas. A total inability to take 20 wickets which is required to win a test match. Too much put on Cummins who bowled a tremendous number of overs over 4 matches.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Lyon is a good bowler, not a great bowler. Manages to suck a lot of batsmen into going after him and getting caught; gets very few of those classic offspin dismissals in either bowling batsmen through the gate, or getting them LBW. Compare and contrast to Graeme Swann; watching the later, he looked like he might pin a lefty on their pads or rip one through a right anytime.

          Good on him for almost getting to 400, but I think he remains perennially over-rated.

          • I think you’re right. Imagine if he managed just 5 more wickets over the last day of the last 2 tests……….

            I wonder if he’s cooked.

        • I heard an interesting comment by Josh Hazlewood the other day. He was asked how much he had learned about individual Indian batsmen after the failure in the 3rd test. He replied not much as he just bowls exactly the same to all of the batsmen. Pat Cummins is the only bowler we have that actually competes, the rest of them paint by numbers.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Hazelwood at least makes the ball talk enough that he’ll get an edge or move one back every now and them to catch someone on the crease. I like the variety that Starc brings but there are also times you feel he doesn’t have that wicket-taking ball in him.

            Are there any other pacemen screaming to get picked?

    • Yeah, met these bastards face to face at the back of a forest reserve in Brissie. Barely escaped with my life. Hundreds.. hundreds of angry, big, mofos …

      Also, note that those are only the Japanese bees who know how to cook these wasps. European bee hives can be totally slaughtered by 5 or 6 of these monsters.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Ah, LNP meeting was it; your life was nearly ended by a bunch of little pricks?

        Somehow I always knew it would be that.

  3. need 10Y to hit 1.2 tonight and stay there until 11:00am tomorrow. That is all I am asking for rest of 2021.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      BS. Supply and demand. It was an extra $100/night over 2 weeks. Not exorbitant. Do you expect the balcony rooms should go to a lottery or something? You want the balcony you pay for it.

      Is everyone on here a friggin evil commie?

      • I’m not. I agree with you. Not sure how or why anyone can see it differently.

        This is why leftards are okay with immigration. If there are balconies, carspaces, water, everyone can have it. They do not understand maths.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Too right. Plus what’s the point of putting them in quarantine and then giving them a balcony they can breathe and hoik all over each other from. Der. Shouldn’t be allowed anyway.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Waiting for Scomo to sell 49% of Australia’s air to a private equity lead consortium…….it will improve efficiency ……and we can market it to the poisoned
      gasping world ….a new export industry.. ( just need the consumers to move to castle hill )

      After all if you can sell your country’s water why not their air…( and if you really want to up sell there has to be a market for your country’s virgins too .

      Straya has a bright future ….

  4. So now if your a sports star and you test positive its not really a positive, its virus ‘shedding’ which is all fine. Remember, only the rich and famous can virus ‘shed’. Everyone else is infectious.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Maybe because those ones are like 💯 years old or something? And just to make it clear, these are of hospitalised victims.

      • Some attempt to forward ignorance as a substitute for knowledge, strangely or not this seems to be highly correlated to some concocted out of whole cloth ideology = short cut to shaping reality through belief alone.

        Remember that like Rapture … Suffering is a good thing …

    • Christopher Kennett

      Given the age and comorbidity profile of the typical COVID admittee, it wouldn’t be surprising that 1/8th of them are dead within 5 months.

      Sweden’s deaths for 2020 being 3.5% above the 5-year average deaths is pretty much all you need to know. Even then, there’s evidence that the excess 2020 deaths are just deaths that didin’t occur in 2019 due to the weak flu season that year. Indeed there’s a strong inverse correlation across Europe of flu deaths in 2019 to COVID deaths in 2020.

      • The ones that die from long covid is one thing … the ones that live and experience the totality of said conditions is another thing.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      If my memory serves me correct which is a slim chance, I recall the exact same cartoon with Obama slumped over a broom or something … but that’s probably inappropriate now

  5. New Zealand …

    … Building supply shortages nationally … with Selwyn Council area (adjoining Christchurch) busier now than post the earthquakes ! …

    COVID-19: Building industry facing supply shortage due to shipping delays … VIDEO … Holly Henry … Newshub NZ

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/01/covid-19-building-industry-facing-supply-shortage-due-to-shipping-delays.html

    … extract …

    … Selwyn, the fastest-growing region in the country, has seen record numbers of building consents.

    In 2020 The Selwyn District Council saw record numbers of building consents – a 26 percent increase on the previous year – higher than their peak in the post-earthquake rebuild.

    Currently, there is such a backlog of work, the Council is urgently seeking staff to meet demand.

    Meanwhile, tradies are doing their best to source the finishing touches. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … Check Selwyn Councils monthly consents numbers and (standard industry measure) ‘consents / approval rate per 1000 population per annum’ … WOW ! …

    Building Consents Issues – November 2020 – Statistics NZ

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-november-2020

    Australia detached housing construction … massive lift …

    … Why is the dilatory New Zealand Ardern Labour government failing to allow Kiwis and the construction sector to compete with Aussies ? …

    … Why allow the flight of housing deprived and aspirational Kiwis to Australia to resume ? …

    November 2020 – Building Approvals … Australian Bureau of Statistics

    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-approvals-australia/latest-release

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I think Stewie posted this on the weekend, but a fascinating read. Is Tether the cause or the effect?

      I think I’m happy to sit it out when we find out.

      • Punch line is some call it investing … at least in the old days they would lube up the crowd with alcohol first …

  6. Cough ….

    The Capitol Riot Revealed the Darkest Nightmares of White Evangelical America
    How 150 years of apocalyptic agitation culminated in an insurrection

    As law enforcement authorities and media outlets track down and identify these insurrectionists, we are beginning to understand who they are and what they wanted. Amid the QAnon adherents, antisemites, neo-Confederates, and revolutionary cosplayers were the evangelical faithful: those who see themselves as the vanguard of God’s end-times army. Their exultant participation in the riot represented some of the most extreme political action that any group of evangelicals has taken in recent history.
    New year, new adminstration sale:

    These Christians apparently believe that they had no choice but to try to overthrow the Congress. For months, various evangelicals have claimed in sermons, on social media, and during protests that malicious forces stole the election, conspired to quash Christian liberties, and aimed to clamp down on their freedom to worship and spread the Christian gospel. They felt sure that the final days of history were at hand and that the Capitol was the site of an epochal battle. As one evangelical from Texas told The New York Times, “We are fighting good versus evil, dark versus light.”

    https://newrepublic.com/article/160922/capitol-riot-revealed-darkest-nightmares-white-evangelical-america

    Now where have I heard that before …. ummm ….