Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar badly lags commodities rocketship

Asian share markets are quite mixed with a big inversion in direction today as Japanese stocks rallied, Chinese bourses dropped while the ASX200 did 2/5ths of nothing again.  Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are putting in mild upswings in the short term, while Bitcoin is at a key technical point here, ready to break down significantly if it goes below the $33000 level later tonight. The four hourly chart is setting up quiet nicely either way:

The Shanghai Composite is pulling back sharply after this lunch break, currently down nearly 0.7% to 3587 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off about half that, yet still above the 28000 point level, to be at 28176 points. Japanese markets are the standout with the Nikkei 225 up by more than 1%, closing at 28446 points as the USDJPY pair put in a very small recovery later in the session after getting poleaxed last night

The ASX200 was yet again unable to gain traction, lifting only 0.1% to 6686 points while the Australian dollar has tried to make good on last nights overall USD weakness but instead remains floating along at the mid 77’s going into tonights US inflation rate print:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are flat lining once again going into the European open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still showing a lot of buying support as it remains poised to breakout above the 3800 point level:

The economic calendar heats up a little tonight with the latest US inflation data plus Euro-wide industrial production figures with a few more Treasury auctions and FedSpeak to get through on the other side of the session.

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  1. COVID everywhere by winter

    Churchill Capital 4 looks interesting. I’m aiming for 23 from the current 14 by the end of the week.

  2. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Will finish the human tissue debridement machine tonight, been on it since early morn in dark swim/surf. Someone else tried to fix it but failed as it had 3 faults being electrical, electronics and shaft bearings, mechanical to modify as well. Must admit getting tired after up and back to mid north coast on Monday and 4.00am bike ride yesterday weights late arvo’s. He just gave me another job but yesterday got a pile of heavy mobile attic suckers (diesel powered rotary positive blowers) to modify and mix match. Never rains but it pours.
    Will ease back end of week to tune into the haroldus Ermo encounter.

  3. Already drunk.. my new year and happy new year cnvts.

    I think I know what message Mr Market sent when 10Y hit 1.18x last night. Was buying NCM below $26 this morning.

  4. As an update the current daily compound return for the test funds that I’ve added to the TDXP liquidity pool is running at 23%pa. This excludes any movement in BSV, just the original USD equivalent that I initially invested. This exchange has only been in existence for 1 mth and my theoretical annualised daily compound return is only on limited amount of data so far.

    I’m hesitant to contribute a more substantial amount to the pool as that annualised return in this market reeks of Ponzi – either that or Crypto exchanges have been making an obscene amount of money. However as it all takes place on the chain it should be auditable – looking into this now.

    • I’ve started by contacting TDXP directly via twitter DM – they have been following me and retweeted me a couple times so they may respond.

      Hi, I have to congratulate you on the success of your site – I am VERY impressed. As a first iteration of a DeFi product that I’ve come across of any material note on BSV (and I have been a long time and enthusiastic holder) you have done an outstanding job.

      I have tentatively provided some liquidity funding to the exchange and would really appreciate gaining a greater understanding of how you are projecting returns of +214% [Stewie: when you provide intial liquidty there is a projected return calculator. I thought it had errored out the first time I made a small test liquidity contribution]

      I have provided a number of Liquidity contributions and have noted that the payout appears to be higher for the earlier amounts that I provided on a 10 BSV investment? What are the time frames and basic assumptions – provided you are able to able to provide a high level description?

      My own calculation of my daily compounding return is currently running at 23% – again, it appears to be climbing as the time passes, with the earlier contributions earning more than later.

      Finally my last question is in regards to transparency and auditability of the activity taking place on TDXP. Quite simply such returns appear to be too good to be true – is there an auditability function to prove things like the liquidity pool? Is there a means to audit pool payouts? Is the liqudity pool kept as desegregated funds or as segregated accounts?

      Anyhow, I probably won’t hear back from them, but if I do I will keep you posted. Will see if I can find out some answers to these questions by alternate means.

      Interestingly TDXP seems to be the first of several such exchanges – just came across another BSV DeFi exchange that is getting ready to launch:

      It appears that the overhead in setting up is so low that this space appears to likely to become very crowded very quickly.

    • wow – that is really interesting. also led me to look up lightyear motors which I had also never heard of.

      to be honest, with our massive solar resources in Australia this is what the Govt should be throwing some money at. Get the solar cars running at the Lang Lang test track …

      also solves the charging issue for me – I only have on street parking – perfect for a solar charging car.

      • God knows our intense sun would be better spent charging batteries than turning paintwork to crap.

    • Pretty cool, I might get 1 for the wife. Since her car isn’t stored in the garage. It’s outdoors all day, could soak up some sun. No paint is good, because no worries about scratches.