Risk markets are having a wonderful end to the week now that Trump has finally conceded he lost the election (from two months ago). Bitcoin is having a few wobbles but looks set to get higher again tonight, currently at just below $39000 as it continues to have 10% plus volatility intrady. Gold has been unable to recover from its breakdown, moving slightly lower and looking weak here at the $1909USD per ounce level:
The Shanghai Composite is falling going into the close, down 0.6% to 3553 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has gone the other way and doubled down on its recent breakout, up 1.2% to 27899 points. Japanese stock markets are surging with the big selloff in Yen helping the Nikkei 225 move 1.7% higher to 27971 points as the USDJPY pair hovers just below the 104 handle. This surge off the December lows is well overbought and will probably pause a bit longer here before tonights NFP determines the right direction:
The ASX200 kept above the former 6700 point barrier by rising 0.5% to 6748 points while the Australian dollar continues unchanged just below the 78 handle, still looking a little listless but technically overbought at the top of its trend channel:
Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up strongly going into the European open as the political chaos in Washington is all but absorbed by risk markets. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 is ready to go much higher than the 3800 point level:
The economic calendar will focus squarely on the latest US unemployment figures – the non-farm payrolls or NFP, which will set the course of risk taking for the rest of the month. Usually. There’s also a pesky second impeachment of Trump to get through first. Again, more popcorn and keep your stops wide!
Have a good weekend.
- Macro Afternoon - January 8, 2021
- Grantham: Avoid US growth stocks during this “epic” bubble - January 8, 2021
- Australian dollar still well supported by the iron ore rally - January 8, 2021
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Australian dollar still well supported by the iron ore rally
Bloomberg are out today with a piece about how
Macro Morning
Stimulus and vaccine hopes are overriding
Macro Afternoon
A strange day for geo-politics as the US goes
Bitcoin bubbles as Australian dollar floats along
Markets are plain ignoring the political chaos in
Got accused of being a conspiracy theorist by hospital worker getting a healthy roll from a cafe. She didn’t have a mask which I praised her for but it soon deteriorated when I said it was just a very bad cold/flu.
..
A very bad flu:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364
ok if its twice as bad as a cold /flu then it doubles the admissions.
She was a sickly sort so obviously she knew a lot about sick people but little about health.
Sticks out on a 100 yr chart:
https://twitter.com/o_logical/status/1347207161177374730
I like Mike blurs reply.
More half dead people in our population these days to be finished off as well.
You first adventurist seeking mate …. get such into a ward and send a post cart,
so, from 6 to 17 on the graph, about 3 times worse.
have we responded proportionately with 3 times the effort for prevention? OR Gone completely off the scale?
It’s just a cataclysmically bad flu, that’s all.
So many people on the verge of death kept artificially alive waiting to be knocked off by any passing disease.
Welcome to western medicine
Agreed. Anyone over 40 should be turned to soylent green
At least it eliminated the flu.
But did it?
Naive, ignorant or simple strike me as being more appropriate than conspiracy theorist.
bought more BBUS in the arvo and futures just exploded higher. 😑
Short QQQ will have its day.
Make sure you wear a mask while waiting for BBUS.
even mask won’t save me. 140k jobs lost vs 71k gain expected and futures still green.
How much will you continue to embarrass yourself about US politics? Trump should be the third rail for MB at this stage.
MB have called the Trump shamozzle reasonably well – certainly better than Trump supporters on here did.
MB picked the election result while most Trumpsticles were claiming the polls were off, the silent majority etc etc
MB picked Trump having a slow-time tantrum, refusing to concede and encouraging democratic rupture.
They don’t get everything right, but the only people embarassing themselves on here now are the Trump supporters who are still trusting the plan, releasing the kraken, getting tired of winning at losing.
The point of you unnecessarily reminding me that Piers Morgan exists was what exactly?
He was right both times.
ah ok.thought it must have been somehow related to my post but clearly not.
They called it terribly. Several civil war calls. Alarmist nonsense. Just like the rest of the most feeble-minded media in the English-speaking world. Shameful.
Well, they got the result right. Did you?
Anyway, alarmist headlines are par for the course around here. AUD on rocketship to moon, Iron ore crashes through earth’s crust etc. Probably just trying to keep the day-to-day grind of macro analysis exciting to keep your attention…don’t let it get you down.
The result predicted yesterday (and several other times) was civil war. I haven’t seen any amendment to that ridiculousness. If you’re talking about the election result, I got it right. But it was closer than I thought it would be. The Aussie media is officially now completely void of any nuanced US commentary. Same as it ever was.
What macro-analysis?
Trump started in 2016 with majority in House, Senate as well as being President. In a single term he has lost it all. So. Much. Losing. Worse, for yesterdays insurrection, a sovereign level crime,if there is no punishment for the mob and for Trump, then it is a terrible precedent of weakness. The only response of a strong state is to come down hard to ensure it does not recur.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Parliament_House_riot
“The 1996 Parliament House riot (also called the Canberra riot) involved a physical attack on Parliament House, Canberra, Australia, on 19 August 1996,”
Just putting this here for your comment…
Far out you’re on tilt today lol. As a fellow lunatic I humbly suggest taking a break for the night. Feel free to ignore this advice
Remember it well. But it did not attempt to interfere with an election and nor was it encouraged by political leaders for that end. Also did not result in either House being invaded, nor Ministerial offices for that matter. Bit of a difference.
Youre such a patriotard
I’m not a Trump supporter, nor particularly patriotic. But I can see the exact opposite bias in the Australian media and pseudo-intellectual commentariat on the regular. So much schadenfreude. So little insight.
I came for the insights. Stayed for the scadenfreude.
lol nice
You got half of it right.
There is lots of that but if storming congress to stop a constitutionaly mandated confirmation isn’t a coup attempt, what is it?
Just because they are a bunch of incompetent Q-tards, doesn’t make their intent any less obvious.
idiocy.
Would you call https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Parliament_House_riot an attempted coup in australia?
The most inept coup attempt of all time? One that had no chance of success? Fooled all of shrtraya, though. Idiots.
Possibly akin to to occupying senators’ offices because you object to a Supreme Court nominee.
Bjw678… get your facts straight. Issue was industrial relations legislation not the election. No revolution was claimed or sought. The Australian riot damaged the gift shop at Parliament house but otherwise only to a limited degree. Not remotely the same as the Capitol being overrun, joint sitting stopped for 5 hours, parliamentarians evacuated, offices broken into, looting, vandalism.
pseudo-intellectual = dialectical GPS head shrinking grid square ….
You are the poster child of pseudo-intellectualism.
pseudo-intellectualism – thank you for proving by supplying an example of the above.
Skippy = “I know you are, but what am I?”
Again thank you for proving my point.
You sad sad seppo kodiak, pleade go back to your beloved homeland.
The Trumptards aren’t done yet! This is their latest hail Mary
https://youtu.be/sYPsxfPT3B8
“Barack Obama & The Ministry of Italy Altered Voting systems via Private Military Contractors and satellites in space.”
It’s basically “Choose Your Own Adventure” at this point.
I loved those choose your own adventure books as a kid lol. Thanks for the pleasant memory 👍
Were you like me in flipping to the ending you wanted and working out what logic tree you needed to employ to get there?
Nope, I was the one that used all my fingers to hold a bunch of spots where I made choices I thought could end badly lol
In high school I had a mate who was hyperactive and I guess had ADD and he used to get me to read the books out for him because he couldn’t read properly. But he was pretty smart.
Anyway, something I probably wouldn’t do now with a 15yo boy.
Tunnel man is the richest prick in the world.
Jeff Bezos is no longer the world’s richest man.
Environmental tax off sets to mars I tells ya …. dominion with a side of psychotropics …. advance humanity … wheeeeee
Well Bezos is a Kent, so I’m happy that it’s Elon instead of him in the #1 spot.
Panic buying in Brisbane has been absolutely insane. Most perishables off shelves by 10am. All this for a three-day homestay.
Reminds me of relatives who pack the big suitcase for a weekend away. How much food do you think you can eat in a weekend?
Wonder how many ex-Melbournites are up there getting some lockdown redux
🙂
“Bugger this, let’s move to Victoria!”
Regional Victoria.
Lol the Karens moved from Melbourne to Brisbane didnt they?
lol
Has there been a 3 day lockdown that has crushed the virus? I suspect these three days will be the first 3 days of the lockdown, not the last 3 days.
Yes – SA
Though to be fair, that turned out to be a false start. If the infected chap had not lied about working at the pizza joint and not just picking up a pizza the SA authorities say they would not have called for a lock-down in the first place. By the sounds of it the virus that is loose in Brisbane is another level of bad compared to what we’ve handled here so far.
Yes, true.
Not convinced that the UK thing is actually worse, let’s see what it does here. I’m thinking UK winter v summer are very different situations.
I think our health people see things like this before we do……..worrying
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2002106
John R agree seaaon makes a big difference, but having lived through Victorian lockdown . . new cases levelled out with masks and dropped with Level 4 lockdown. If we were battling UK variant 70pct more infectious … it would have been a lot slower to control, so Dan might have had us still locked down even now. So I think QLD right to go hard first and ask questions later. I would be very surprised if 3 days sufficient.
They do know they are able to go to the supermarkets during lockdown right? Depriving themselves of a good excuse to get out of the house.
They didnt live through Vic 3mth lockdown in the worst parts of Melbourne. 4 reasons to leave home. 5km limit. Masks compulsory. Qld scenes are like us in March. In my view 3 day lockdown should be 14. Virus just too slick for people to control spread by responsibly controlling their behaviour. And this UK variant is slicker, so a step up in class compared to what we battled last winter.
Agree on the 14 day thing.
I seem to remember going to supermarkets no that long ago and seeing empty shelf after empty shelf as stuff simply wasn’t available. Being able to go out doesn’t help if everyone else got it first.
He who panics first panics best as they say.
It was nuts for sure. I recall TP being a precious commodity. So at the last shop trip I bulk bought in case the Vic outbreak was to continue.
Hehe went out into the shed the other day and discovered 2 extra bulk packs. We don’t need to but tp for a while. But i think it’s coming back country wide soon. Unfortunately. I don’t really want to think about it
Yep, Melbourne at start of first lockdown. Supermarkets stripped of meat went to sth melb market. $30- a kg for minced beef/pork. Will never buy anything more than the stinky dim sims from there now.
I’m working the weekend … whats the bother again – ??????
My parents bring their whole pantry when they come to visit us. Dad brought his own rolled oats and brown sugar for his morning porridge the first time they stayed. Bless em. Fkn annoying though.
All this for a three-day homestay.
It’s not even that, you can still go out for food !
I don’t have high expectations, but it still amazes me how badly the logistics around COVID are – repeatedly – handled.
None but the most hopelessly naive would have been surprised by Coles, Woollies et al, being strip-mined, they should have enforced rationing from the minute they opened, with senior staff and security on hand to discourage people from being complete fvckwits.
“on hand to discourage people from being complete fvckwits.”
If only that were somehow possible to do.
I was thinking of people trying to intimidate some poor 16-year old kid who’s pulled them up on the 10kg of mince, 25 packets of pasta and 100 rolls of bog roll in their trolley.
DrSmithy it’s now clear to me you live in a fantasy land if you think a few changes at Cole’s and Woolies would stop people acting like a bunch of tits.
Far too optimistic that most people are not complete and utter morons. No matter how many safe guards or rules we put in place, dog just makes a better idiot each time.
DrSmithy it’s now clear to me you live in a fantasy land if you think a few changes at Cole’s and Woolies would stop people acting like a bunch of tits.
It won’t.
It may, however, reduce some of the consequences.
New “Daily” covid numbers suddenly appear to signify a likely election annoucement.
https://twitter.com/healthgovau/status/1347430361194786817
Roads are gridlocked out of Brisbane as weaker types flee from a 3 day lockdown and probably take the virus with them. It is madness and never in my 5 years here has been living in an unremarkable rural town been so full of smugness. Lucky there are quite a few more popular spots in between here and the border.
A bradley fighting vehicle would work wonders in that gridlock
Not much notice given for the lockdown. A Friday afternoon mid school holidays. Is it not possible that many were just setting off on pre-planned trips? Gridlock not helped by the usual collision/s.
It had the feel of a run for the hills.
Is it likely the same in New Zealand and Australia ? …
Many UK office workers would accept a pay-cut for remote working … ITProPortal
https://www.itproportal.com/news/many-uk-office-workers-would-accept-a-pay-cut-for-remote-working/
The business is still getting the same productivity, and has less overheads by way of rent, power, water, etc. Why should anyone have to accept a paycut?
Exactly. Few reimburse for internet expenses. Huge cost savings, and a big increase in productivity.
Employee has lower commute costs so is WILLING to take a pay cut to be no worse off.
Why should anyone have to accept a paycut?
~20% Un/under-employment.
So this is the new economik eh; “be thankful that you even have a job”.
Been like that since 2008 sadly. Doesn’t look to be improving anytime soon. Just more stimulus for those who already have plenty and less for those who are scraping by, so at least they can buy BTC. Haha.
So this is the new economik eh; “be thankful that you even have a job”.
Dunno about “new”. It’s certainly been the situation for 10-15 years, and the objective for probably 20-30.
Agree Gavin since 2008 your bonus is that you still have a job. And be grateful. As per Ben-Hur … “row well and live” …. although even sustained high performance over many years is no guarantee of employment any more.
Been like that since the mid 90’s in Manufacturing.
whats with all the Trump supporters?
Cop killers apparently.
Defenders of oligarchical corporatist property and rents on their own labour thingy cog dis – ???? – because he said you’ll *** feel *** great again – ????
this is probably the first time the US hasn’t had a functioning executive with clear chain of command. If a decision needs to be made in the next 2 weeks they are screwed.
Lolllll the “MAGA Militia”. What kind of army have you got when most of your casualties are from “medical emergencies?”. The Fat POS kind.
Reminiscent of the failed coup on Venezuela back in the day and the generalissimo clad bar flys they presented to the corporate media …. funny antics come home thingy …
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0363510/
The Revolution Will Not Be Televised (2003)
Quite a lot of civil wars started with similar, poorly organized mobs.
Albo in a crash, was it an LNP assassination attempt lol
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-08/anthony-albanese-in-hospital-after-car-crash/13043614
Was he on the sauce?
Unlikely, it seems he was T-Boned (and not in a nice way).
Nah…..he’s their prime electoral asset!!
😁
… the Paul Gallen of federal politics …
LNP hit.
Police have released a photo of a man they want to question in relation to the incident.
https://imgur.com/yd1S5lu
Might knock him back on course. You know with actual Labor party values. Not Lib Light. Well at least 1 can hope..
Can’t believe they’re even talking about the Olympics running. Clearly it ain’t.
hai
For brief moment I heard Scummo saying something sensible about the virus and a lockdown.. might have been for Qld. Did not let him finish as I just can’t stand watching and listening to any Lib cnvt but made me think elections might be on the cards sooner than I thought.
Any ingratiating words from that smug self-appointed superior life form suggests it is a possibility.
Drunk and drugged drivers all over southwest so the accident in Casula did not come as surprise to me. I am shocked such accidents are not daily occurrence here.
ANd yeah, police only turns up when people get hurt of killed – to do the paperwork.
Rorkes Drift must be feeling it right now
Could have been him with the horns, skin and spear?
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSzzP5869FHZb7ZiAOfADAvW31QeKIictOCsA&usqp=CAU
Was thinking the same. Poor bugger lol
My cousin has a saying, played for it, deserved it. Don’t bet what you’re not willing to lose. But also don’t let emotions cloud your judgement.
Yeah he had some solid bets that didn’t come good ay.
I take my MAGA hat off to him though! 😂
Swore I saw Jack Ma at a 711 on the north shore
this avo ……
they all look alike … am i right – ????
Are you a round eye?
Look in some minds[????] equals think …. too smell me is to know me … chortle
As always skip …need you to decode one level down …for us simple folks …….
but I think on some indeterminate level
we might understand each other ….
Straya racist ??
Perhaps too many South Americans….Arabs
….Africans …..and god forbid Russians have a place there ……..racist my ar$e …….
“In June2020, the Chinese Ministry of Education warned students not to study in Australia due to the uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing problems surrounding racial prejudice. Liang said many Chinese students and their parents have to consider the pandemic and the problem of racism when choosing an overseas study destination.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212030.shtml
“The decision devastated Georgia Turner, who arrived in Perth after a visit to the Sunshine Coast to introduce her baby daughter to her grandparents”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-08/passengers-from-queensland-annoyed-at-new-wa-hard-border/13043178
Leaving aside how silly it is to be travelling while there’s already active clusters in two states, what a waste of money and time to just show your grandparents a baby. People are idiots.
Is that the said “baby” standing beside her in the striped shorts using a mobile phone? They grow up so quickly these days.
Wonder if he’s been weaned yet.
Would you give this bloke a car for a test drive?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/queensland-pair-charged-over-alleged-luxury-car-theft-spree-in-sydney-20210108-p56smn.html
I mean, if you are thinking you can sell a car to a bloke with tattooed fingers either you are doing it because you think he will pay cash and don’t care where it came from, in which case you deserve what you get if he doesn’t return from a test drive or you are dumb and can count it as a business lesson
Working from home …
One in four people could work from home permanently … UK Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/08/one-four-people-work-home-permanently/
Lawyers put in 20 extra work days when working from home … Legal check
https://www.legalcheek.com/2021/01/lawyers-put-in-20-extra-work-days-when-working-from-home/
Samsung’s profits soar by a QUARTER to $8billion in three months as working from home during coronavirus pandemic drives demand for technology … UK Daily Mail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9125659/Samsungs-profits-soar-QUARTER-8billion-three-months-thanks-rise-working-home.html
Fun Friday: The fastest-growing remote jobs of 2021 … HRD
https://www.hcamag.com/nz/specialisation/recruitment/fun-friday-the-fastest-growing-remote-jobs-of-2021/242987
I live near a laundromat, people still heading in despite the lockdown. I suppose washing clothes might be considered important but lockdown only just started and might end Monday, surely they can wait.
So not only the cleaner was contagious with UK strain in the community so was some Mexican that flew here!!!! What’s that about keeping borders open Leith?!