Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a wonderful end to the week now that Trump has finally conceded he lost the election (from two months ago). Bitcoin is having a few wobbles but looks set to get higher again tonight, currently at just below $39000 as it continues to have 10% plus volatility intrady. Gold has been unable to recover from its breakdown, moving slightly lower and looking weak here at the $1909USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is falling going into the close, down 0.6% to 3553 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has gone the other way and doubled down on its recent breakout, up 1.2% to 27899 points. Japanese stock markets are surging with the big selloff in Yen helping the Nikkei 225 move 1.7% higher to 27971 points as the USDJPY pair hovers just below the 104 handle. This surge off the December lows is well overbought and will probably pause a bit longer here before tonights NFP determines the right direction:

The ASX200 kept above the former 6700 point barrier by rising 0.5% to 6748 points while the Australian dollar continues unchanged just below the 78 handle, still looking a little listless but technically overbought at the top of its trend channel:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up strongly going into the European open as the political chaos in Washington is all but absorbed by risk markets. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 is ready to go much higher than the 3800 point level:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the latest US unemployment figures – the non-farm payrolls or NFP, which will set the course of risk taking for the rest of the month. Usually. There’s also a pesky second impeachment of Trump to get through first. Again, more popcorn and keep your stops wide!

Have a good weekend.


  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Got accused of being a conspiracy theorist by hospital worker getting a healthy roll from a cafe. She didn’t have a mask which I praised her for but it soon deteriorated when I said it was just a very bad cold/flu.

    • MB have called the Trump shamozzle reasonably well – certainly better than Trump supporters on here did.

      MB picked the election result while most Trumpsticles were claiming the polls were off, the silent majority etc etc
      MB picked Trump having a slow-time tantrum, refusing to concede and encouraging democratic rupture.

      They don’t get everything right, but the only people embarassing themselves on here now are the Trump supporters who are still trusting the plan, releasing the kraken, getting tired of winning at losing.

      • 8 Oct 2020

        Piers Predicts Election Disaster For Trump After Correctly Foreseeing 2016 Result
        “This feels different. Very different,” the Good Morning Britain presenter said.

      • They called it terribly. Several civil war calls. Alarmist nonsense. Just like the rest of the most feeble-minded media in the English-speaking world. Shameful.

        • Well, they got the result right. Did you?

          Anyway, alarmist headlines are par for the course around here. AUD on rocketship to moon, Iron ore crashes through earth’s crust etc. Probably just trying to keep the day-to-day grind of macro analysis exciting to keep your attention…don’t let it get you down.

          • The result predicted yesterday (and several other times) was civil war. I haven’t seen any amendment to that ridiculousness. If you’re talking about the election result, I got it right. But it was closer than I thought it would be. The Aussie media is officially now completely void of any nuanced US commentary. Same as it ever was.

      • Trump started in 2016 with majority in House, Senate as well as being President. In a single term he has lost it all. So. Much. Losing. Worse, for yesterdays insurrection, a sovereign level crime,if there is no punishment for the mob and for Trump, then it is a terrible precedent of weakness. The only response of a strong state is to come down hard to ensure it does not recur.

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Panic buying in Brisbane has been absolutely insane. Most perishables off shelves by 10am. All this for a three-day homestay.

    Reminds me of relatives who pack the big suitcase for a weekend away. How much food do you think you can eat in a weekend?

    • Has there been a 3 day lockdown that has crushed the virus? I suspect these three days will be the first 3 days of the lockdown, not the last 3 days.

        • Though to be fair, that turned out to be a false start. If the infected chap had not lied about working at the pizza joint and not just picking up a pizza the SA authorities say they would not have called for a lock-down in the first place. By the sounds of it the virus that is loose in Brisbane is another level of bad compared to what we’ve handled here so far.

          • Yes, true.
            Not convinced that the UK thing is actually worse, let’s see what it does here. I’m thinking UK winter v summer are very different situations.

          • John R agree seaaon makes a big difference, but having lived through Victorian lockdown . . new cases levelled out with masks and dropped with Level 4 lockdown. If we were battling UK variant 70pct more infectious … it would have been a lot slower to control, so Dan might have had us still locked down even now. So I think QLD right to go hard first and ask questions later. I would be very surprised if 3 days sufficient.

      • They didnt live through Vic 3mth lockdown in the worst parts of Melbourne. 4 reasons to leave home. 5km limit. Masks compulsory. Qld scenes are like us in March. In my view 3 day lockdown should be 14. Virus just too slick for people to control spread by responsibly controlling their behaviour. And this UK variant is slicker, so a step up in class compared to what we battled last winter.

      • I seem to remember going to supermarkets no that long ago and seeing empty shelf after empty shelf as stuff simply wasn’t available. Being able to go out doesn’t help if everyone else got it first.
        He who panics first panics best as they say.

          • Hehe went out into the shed the other day and discovered 2 extra bulk packs. We don’t need to but tp for a while. But i think it’s coming back country wide soon. Unfortunately. I don’t really want to think about it

        • Yep, Melbourne at start of first lockdown. Supermarkets stripped of meat went to sth melb market. $30- a kg for minced beef/pork. Will never buy anything more than the stinky dim sims from there now.

    • My parents bring their whole pantry when they come to visit us. Dad brought his own rolled oats and brown sugar for his morning porridge the first time they stayed. Bless em. Fkn annoying though.

    • All this for a three-day homestay.

      It’s not even that, you can still go out for food !

      I don’t have high expectations, but it still amazes me how badly the logistics around COVID are – repeatedly – handled.

      None but the most hopelessly naive would have been surprised by Coles, Woollies et al, being strip-mined, they should have enforced rationing from the minute they opened, with senior staff and security on hand to discourage people from being complete fvckwits.

        • I was thinking of people trying to intimidate some poor 16-year old kid who’s pulled them up on the 10kg of mince, 25 packets of pasta and 100 rolls of bog roll in their trolley.

      • DrSmithy it’s now clear to me you live in a fantasy land if you think a few changes at Cole’s and Woolies would stop people acting like a bunch of tits.

        Far too optimistic that most people are not complete and utter morons. No matter how many safe guards or rules we put in place, dog just makes a better idiot each time.

        • DrSmithy it’s now clear to me you live in a fantasy land if you think a few changes at Cole’s and Woolies would stop people acting like a bunch of tits.

          It won’t.

          It may, however, reduce some of the consequences.

  3. Roads are gridlocked out of Brisbane as weaker types flee from a 3 day lockdown and probably take the virus with them. It is madness and never in my 5 years here has been living in an unremarkable rural town been so full of smugness. Lucky there are quite a few more popular spots in between here and the border.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      The business is still getting the same productivity, and has less overheads by way of rent, power, water, etc. Why should anyone have to accept a paycut?

          • Been like that since 2008 sadly. Doesn’t look to be improving anytime soon. Just more stimulus for those who already have plenty and less for those who are scraping by, so at least they can buy BTC. Haha.

          • So this is the new economik eh; “be thankful that you even have a job”.

            Dunno about “new”. It’s certainly been the situation for 10-15 years, and the objective for probably 20-30.

          • Agree Gavin since 2008 your bonus is that you still have a job. And be grateful. As per Ben-Hur … “row well and live” …. although even sustained high performance over many years is no guarantee of employment any more.


    Lolllll the “MAGA Militia”. What kind of army have you got when most of your casualties are from “medical emergencies?”. The Fat POS kind.

  5. For brief moment I heard Scummo saying something sensible about the virus and a lockdown.. might have been for Qld. Did not let him finish as I just can’t stand watching and listening to any Lib cnvt but made me think elections might be on the cards sooner than I thought.

  6. Drunk and drugged drivers all over southwest so the accident in Casula did not come as surprise to me. I am shocked such accidents are not daily occurrence here.

    ANd yeah, police only turns up when people get hurt of killed – to do the paperwork.

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Straya racist ??
    Perhaps too many South Americans….Arabs
    ….Africans …..and god forbid Russians have a place there ……..racist my ar$e …….

    “In June2020, the Chinese Ministry of Education warned students not to study in Australia due to the uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing problems surrounding racial prejudice. Liang said many Chinese students and their parents have to consider the pandemic and the problem of racism when choosing an overseas study destination.”

  8. “The decision devastated Georgia Turner, who arrived in Perth after a visit to the Sunshine Coast to introduce her baby daughter to her grandparents”

    Leaving aside how silly it is to be travelling while there’s already active clusters in two states, what a waste of money and time to just show your grandparents a baby. People are idiots.

    • Haywood JablomeMEMBER

      Is that the said “baby” standing beside her in the striped shorts using a mobile phone? They grow up so quickly these days.
      Wonder if he’s been weaned yet.

  9. Would you give this bloke a car for a test drive?

    I mean, if you are thinking you can sell a car to a bloke with tattooed fingers either you are doing it because you think he will pay cash and don’t care where it came from, in which case you deserve what you get if he doesn’t return from a test drive or you are dumb and can count it as a business lesson

  10. Working from home …

    One in four people could work from home permanently … UK Telegraph

    Lawyers put in 20 extra work days when working from home … Legal check

    Samsung’s profits soar by a QUARTER to $8billion in three months as working from home during coronavirus pandemic drives demand for technology … UK Daily Mail

    Fun Friday: The fastest-growing remote jobs of 2021 … HRD

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