Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Another mixed day of trading in Asia with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions as confidence was lost on Wall Street overnight.  Bitcoin volatility remains relatively high, putting in another $2000 roundtrip expedition and currently on a downleg below the $31000 level while gold looks a bit toppy as it runs out of puff from its way overbought move overnight, currently just on the $1940USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is floating along, up only 0.3% or so to remain just above the 3500 point level, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is slipping, down 0.1% to 27437 points. Japanese stock markets are still falling in the wake of a stronger Yen, the Nikkei 225 losing another 0.35% to finish at 27162 points while the USDJPY pair was unable to hold on to its swing roundtrip move above the 103 handle as it again threatens key support at the December lows:

After gapping down at the open by over 0.5% the ASX200 eventually finished with a scratch session, closing only 0.1% lower at 6681 points while the Australian dollar was able to recover most of its losses from the night before on the back of the solid ANZ job ad figures, currently hovering just above the 77 handle as it remains supported at the mid 76 level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are relatively weak going into the European open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 hovering just below the 3700 point level after Wall Street lost its way overnight going into the Georgian elections:

The economic calendar includes the latest German unemployment figures, then the ISM Manufacturing print in the US.

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Comments

  1. why do righties downplay / and can’t manage covid?
    Not because they are “tough” (they tear up, panic and are helicoptered to hospital when they get it).
    It’s because they enjoy seeing people suffer.
    Lesson of 2020.

  2. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Who is interested in finding out about Crypto and DeFi blockchain products?

    I’m feeling generous at the moment so willing to send up to 10 people $20 USD in BSV equivalent, with the aim of getting genuine feedback around a DeFi exchange TDXP and the whole experience of integrated wallets:

    https://tdxp.app/market/BTC-USD

    All you have to do is open a MoneyButton Wallet and send me your base address, something like [email protected] (just reply below):

    https://www.moneybutton.com/register

    All you need to open a money button wallet is an email address.

    To work as an intergrated system you will need to adjust the security settings of your browser. I would recommend using an alternative other than your main. I would suggest Brave, which can be down loaded here:

    https://brave.com/

    This would probably of most interest to the crypto trader set or anyone who is curious as to what I’ve been yammering on about.

    If you are interested respond below, all I want is genuine feedback on the user experience.

    • The more I think about it the more I think blockchains and GST type taxes are a natural fit. Hopefully in the future there will be an international system in conjunction with taxing outputs at the point of production which will take all the guesswork out of taxing supra-national capital.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        The more I think about it the more I think blockchains and GST type taxes are a natural fit.

        As an aside to my original comment, yes I 100% agree with your beliefs in regards to where crypto is headed. The US Treasury OCC, which is the largest US banking regulator just released a paper providing guidance that allows US banks to use public blockchains and dollar stablecoins as a settlement infrastructure in the US financial system. The new interpretive letter establishes that banks can treat public chains as infrastructure similar to SWIFT, ACH and FedWire, and stablecoins like USDC as electronic stored value:

        While governments in other countries have built real-time payments systems, the United States has relied on our innovation sector to deliver real-time payments technologies. Some of those technologies are built and managed by bank consortia and some are based on independent node verification networks such as blockchains,” said Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian P. Brooks. “The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets recently articulated a strong framework for ushering in an era of stablecoin-based financial infrastructure, identifying important risks while allowing those risks to be managed in a technology-agnostic way. Our letter removes any legal uncertainty about the authority of banks to connect to blockchains as validator nodes and thereby transact stablecoin payments on behalf of customers who are increasingly demanding the speed, efficiency, interoperability, and low cost associated with these products.”

        https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2021/nr-occ-2021-2.html

        In my opinion the importance of this development cannot be understated – Blockchain technology WILL BE ADOPTED.

        The consequences of this are going to be far reaching – expect massive regulation in this space, at least until it is equalised with the existing financial system. The efficiencies that blockchain tech delivers are coveted – the crypto cowboy free for all is not.

        At a minimum I would expect stable coins to be subject to the same criteria as the old US Money Market Funds, which were closely monitored, regulated in order to ensure that they ‘never break the buck’. They will be audited and be strictly limited in what they will be able to hold as collateral. Imho these stable coins will then also be shortly followed by CBDC issued onto them as well.

        It is also, imho, the end of Tether. That company is the most toxic feature in Crypto and the main reason why over 20 attempts at creating a Bitcoin ETF being knocked back due to it operating in ‘a manipulated market’.

        It simply WILL NOT be allowed to exist in the future state and imho its days are number in double digits.

    • on hold with Commsec International but I already looking at TDXP from the link you provided.
      If I have any questions, how do I reach out?
      Also, any view on XRP?

      oh.. also, bought some Ocean Protocol. Very, very few.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Yay! Finally some interest – it is 1:14pm I just sent you $50 since there were no other takers.

          It should arrive in your wallet instantly.

          Then once it has arrived, check out the TDXP App from the above link. Login is in the top right corner – you simply log in by selecting the MoneyButton tab (you have to remain logged in to your MoneyButton wallet while doing so).

          Have a play around and see if you can put any bets on… depending on your browser settings you may need to adjust your security for MoneyButton and TDXP. If so just refer to the Twetch link.

          Let me know how you go.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          You may need to provide KYC before you trade – which I did with a photo of me holding my drivers licence. I’m not sure, I did the KYC before I put on a trade. I try to be very straight up the line when I use these things, but I have a bit more crypto than $50, so you may not need to bother.

          Have a play around – it is a DeFi product, which means it is a little different to a regular exchange. In this case the liquidity is provided by stakeholders. People stake some BSV to a liquidity pool and individual traders then trade against it. You can read up about that on the liquidity section. Basically stakeholders underwrite trading pools, after the pool ends surpluses are distributed.

          The daily return for my investment in the liquidity pool so far has varied between 10c and 92c, so it is quite volatile. However annualising the daily compounding return it comes in at 14%. I’m still only testing it out myself – but while I’ve been yammering on about the potential of blockchain tech for a while, this is the first time that I’ve actually had an application worth the time to look at and provide as an example.

          From a trading perspective the spreads appear a little wide to me atm, but as the liquidity pool grows those spreads should tighten.

          I’m not sure if all the price data is encoded to the BSV blockchain, so the prices of BTC, Gold, or even Tesla if you want to take a punt on that, may be being encoded onto the BSV blockchain or they may not. Eventually the goal is to have that data streamed onto the blockchain and these DeFi products interact with it there, rather than through the TDXP servers (if they do actually externally source it). Regardless your trade, which is essentially a smart contract, then completes and the full results are encoded onto the blockchain so you can verify..

          If you make a bundle using *20 leverage on TDXP feel free to send that original $50 back to my MoneyButton Address:
          [email protected]

          However, if you enjoy the product and experience I’d much prefer it if you passed it on and help someone else into understanding what blockchain, intergrated wallets and smart contracts are all about.

          Cheers

  3. King Kane has taken the number one spot and scored his second double of the summer.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/new-zealand-v-pakistan-2020-21-1233950/new-zealand-vs-pakistan-2nd-test-1233963/match-report-3

    NZ on a greentop in England for the Test championship final will be good. The Lords groundkeepers might even favour the Kiwis over Australia or India. All the bowling attacks look strong but I’d have to favour the NZ batting line up right now.

  4. GunnamattaMEMBER

    For anyone with time to sit through a reasonable presentation/podcast

    Someone put me onto this Zeihan dude on the weekend and he has put this up on youtube within the last few weeks

    It covers a lot of issues worth thinking about. His style may irritate a few but it isnt bad coverage

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LgO-W-JGjM

    ‘Geopoliticist Peter Zeihan looks at the economic trends for the dairy industry and his predictions for the future the Wednesday, December 9, 2020’

    Circa 25.50

    ‘Of the world’s top twenty consumption led systems only Australia is not facing a health collapse, and Australia is under lockdown, so it really doesnt matter from an economic point of view. Consumption led economies of the world are all off line, and they are desperately bringing their manufacturing needs in house for reasons of health national security, populism and jobs. Which means that if you are an export led system you have nobody to sell to. And this is going to last for at least the rest of this calendar year. I’m sorry, the next calendar year. And in the case of the developing world into 2022.

    Which means this is it. It’s over. Most coutnries will never return to where they were in calendar year 2019, and the export led systems that were hoping to make the adjustment before 2022, when the bottom falls out. They have lost all the time. Globalisation is done.

      • I hope so too, I am happy to pay more for goods if it supports local Aussies. Although I’m a fan of the Japanese too. Since they care about their craft.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Indeed, remember when we were horribly racialist and wouldn’t buy inferior imported goods? We would buy quality imported goods, but only if there wasn’t a quality locally manufactured option.

          Now garages are full of inferior imported goods and the mediocre imported car is in the driveway,

      • A lot of “globalisation” was really just an invented excuse used by the first generation of professional unionists and Keating to justify garbage policies.
        Why are my wages being cut? globalisation
        Why are my savings being stolen by finance types? globalisatiom
        why is my boss paying no tax? globalisation

        wasn’t the country impacted by “globalisation” under imperial preference?

        I remember a heap of debates along those lines. With people who knew every single subtlety when it came to the history wars and the urgent need to become a republic.
        Then you ask why labour had to hand 10% of GDP to capital under a notionally Labor government? globalisation.
        Zero analysis,required because its all down to some subjective noun

    • Donald Rumsfeld

      Australia, US and many others have seen an explosion in imports from China – their local industries have collapsed, but people are shopping online (from China) like crazy.

      Soooo – yeah, nah, but thanks.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Dont tell me. That is pure Weeaproinah, Arkins Creek, La Nina Heads you are smoking, yeah?

        Try the Mushrooms while you are at it mate.

        A big plate full with an ice cold Murphy will get you there brother.

        …..and just imagine a chunk of those online sales coming back home …

      • We can start by blocking Alibaba, if the CCP can block Facebook and what not, we can do the same and block all their E-commerce outlets. We could also stop Chinese seller’s listing on EvilBay. Job done.

  5. Few twitter links in these arvo comments, decided to read some (don’t usually bother with the social media links), far out, what a cesspool of knobs that place is, from all points of the spectrum

    Edit: the stories are interesting but scroll down the slightest bit and the crud starts. I’ve been accused by a few here of being a/posting brain farts but I think I’m nowhere near twitter level lol

  6. NEW ZEALAND: Skyrocketing house prices: ‘Outright unaffordability’ predicted in late 2021

    There’s no end in sight to the relentless rise of house prices, with new CoreLogic data painting gloomy picture for first home buyers.

    Action needed to halt rocketing house prices – CoreLogic … Miriam Bell … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/123874073/action-needed-to-halt-rocketing-house-prices–corelogic

    There’s no end in sight to the relentless rise of house prices, with new CoreLogic data showing near-record growth nationwide in December – and that has prompted renewed calls for action. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    David Chaston points out that the new 39% income tax rate won’t work as intended. It will just re-incentivise the housing distortion, sad because the real answer has been in plain sight for a decade … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108539/david-chaston-points-out-new-39-income-tax-rate-wont-work-intended-it-will-just-re

    … extract …

    … The solution is “Christchurch”… (actually Greater Christchurch … led and ‘saved’ by the adjoining smaller and therefore functional territorial authorities of Waimakariri and Selwyn … refer ‘consent rate per 1000 population per annum’ history via Statistics NZ Monthly Building Consents data … note Dale Smith comment on article thread incorporating this important link https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/46-year-high-for-new-home-consents . Access detailed ‘consents rate per 1000 population per annum’ data via link at bottom of page) … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    REINZ – Oct 2020 Residential Property Data

    https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

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