Is this the end for El Trumpo?

Congress has just voted to impeach El Trumpo over the Capilo riot. Will Trump now face an impeachment trial? Not by Republicans in the next few days he won’t:

The trial will transpire in the senate so this precludes it from happening while Republicans are in control.

However, this is really just politicking. McConnell no doubt does not want the blood on his hands, as it were. When the Dems take control of the senate shortly the trial will go ahead and McConnell has already said that he supports it.

To impeach Trump successfully, the senate will need a supermajority of two-thirds meaning 17 Republican votes will be needed. 8-10 senate Republicans have already declared themselves willing so the chances are firm that the numbers will mount.

Why would more GOP senators choose to do it? First, because it is the right thing to do.

Second, if the vote is successful then El Trumpo can never run for office again. There may be some leaders and factions that see their own chance to run for president improved by having no Trump in 2024 so now is their chance.

Third, if the Republicans don’t seize this chance to rid themselves of El Trumpo  permanently then the odds rise of a structural split in the party as he interminably snipes from the sidelines in the lead up to another tilt at the leadership.

There is also the chance that criminal charges will be laid against the likes of Donald Trump Jnr and Rudi Guiliani, who were vociferous in the lead up to the riot, which would make it very difficult for them hold any future public office as well.

Add that The new Biden Administration is certain to carpet bomb Republican states with MMT stimulus and the odds are pretty good that we’ve seen the end of El Trumpo.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

    • There is going to be a third party by 2022. It will have voters from both sides and quite likely those who have never voted for either party, were never represented by them. Will be panic for Republicans and Dems in 22and 24.
      Then war with China etc. is likely. With Samantha Power driving giving hell for non Americans.

    • The swap cannot and will not be drained.
      The swamp is too big and too deep and too many from all sides of politics and big business have too much to gain from it.
      Only a total military takeover/dictatorship that would also shut down the mainstream media, entertainment industry and curb Wall Street could drain the swamp…. and then you just end up with a different type of master and tyrant.
      The swamp is a feature of the system, not a bug.

  1. DLS

    Impeachment happens in Congress, in fact it happened half an hour ago. The Senate then has a trial on the charge(s), which requires a 2/3 rd majority (17 GOP senate votes). Your article needs tidying up mate.

  2. I am trying to find the NPR article or the AP article that I read that explains when the senate reconvenes, they wont need to impeach him (trail the impeachment charges) because he wont be a sitting president, there is a separate provision in the constitution that can be brought to the senate that declares the president is unfit for office which can strip him of running again, and all his perks and only needs a simple majority to pass and not a super majority. Thus the second impeachment is really just building a case against him because it will eventually end up at the Supreme Court because there’s no precedent and it has never been tested.

  3. The benefit of having no principles other than self interest enables one to continuously reinvent oneself .

    Stay tuned for

    Trump News Network

    • Trump doesn’t have the money. Maybe the CCP and Putin will lend him the dole to destroy America.

      • The CCP is on record for money to the Biden’s for a start. Trump treated Russia worse than other presidentcy has done. The sanctions on Russia, the sanctions on businesses, the sanctions on companies working on the pipeline to Germany, the 21 deaths of diplomats the Russian choir dead in plane crash ….USA troops and proxies killed russians in Syria.

        • ‘The CCP is on record for money to the Biden’s for a start.’

          ‘On record’ means, the Trump team and Trump himself have made allegations, with the usual level of credibility.

    • Mr T rump is an act whore of the highest order.
      His puppet masters/agent/ handlers..whatever will assign dons next role as required.
      All props, staging (wife family house car chopper etc provided to suit the part. Maybe he’ll get a jail role like the old head of world finance DSK usurped by a wo man with dozer jaw. Great headlines..,cannot make this shy te up except ‘they’ do. The circus continues. I’m sure there’s a Simpson ep where el trumpo gets shot & same thing happened in house of cards. Of course could never just have a president / prime minister that could lead. Same script on world (wide) stage:))

      • I wouldn’t be surprised if El Trumpos handler is the Kush.. Chabad Lubavitch card carrying member. I saw someone post a simpsons screenshot of an episode where Marge and Homer are standing next to a very familiar horned protester in front of the Capitol building. Simpons strikes again….

    • Regardless of his perceived failings as a president (I hated his TV show too by the way) remember he never drew a presidential salary instead donated it to various causes plus he “built the wall”, met the North Koreans, got the Saudis and UAE to sign a peace treaty with Israel etc. I’m not a fan but he’s one of the rare presidents who never started or expanded on an existing conflict. As a thirteen time deployed ADF member I reluctantly appreciate that fact, although it’s not easy getting to know the missus a second time around….

      Trump wasn’t an answer, he was a protest to the corruption that is.

  4. Nah. I think it unlikely that Trump would meekly walk away from the commercial opportunities and ego-enhancement of his supporter base. The Republicans seem to be heading for an acrimonious divorce with him…..so prepare for the birth of the MAGA Party, with nominal leader Eric Trump. The deplorables can keep their existing baseball caps.

  5. If it gets to a Congressional trial and Republicans vote against Trump, regardless of who is sitting in the Oval Office, then ‘his’ supporters will rip what’s left of the Republican Party apart. (NB: Biden will likely do similar to the Democrats!)
    Think “America First” as a good name for the new party home of the disenfranchised. The only question to be answered in due course will be “How many Democrats that may also become disillusioned will also join that movement?”.
    Just as life ain’t returning to the normal we knew pre-Covis19, neither is USA politics pre-Trump.

      • Quite probably.
        Trump was the start of an alternative to the status quo. They didn’t like that – so we have what we see about us today.
        But if they reckon they can stamp out what Trump has started, I’ll suggest they are more deluded that they think he is.

      • Bannon’s got a good few years left in him.
        A much more crystalized ideological vision – and the ability to explain it.

        Just got to work on dumbing the language down and rousing people.

        Watch him.

  6. Nearly half of all votes went to Trump…. yet anyone who shows the slightest support dor him in anyway is deranged. Says quite a lot about people these days. Especially on this site.

    • Reus's largeMEMBER

      +1000, they call his supporters delusional but can’t see past their own delusional hate for him, either way he was the only thing that was standing in the way of the new world order and the great reset, people need to open their eyes to the bigger picture.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        To a big percentage of those 75 million Republican voters, who the GOP candidate is largely irrelevant.
        That Trump is a total fktard and embarrassment is completely besides the point to a majority of tribal voters.

    • Did they? or did half the vote go to the republican party of which El Trumpo was the candidate.

      I know the difference here is subtle, but people often vote for the party they have always voted for, regardless of the qualities of the leader. When 50% of the population has been convinced the democrats are corrupt, they vote republican… and vice versa…

      We see this in Australian politics all the time.

      What would be interesting would be if they did the election again now and see what the outcome was. The Georgia Senate elections didnt go the way they expected and I would suspect the voting numbers would be even higher than before but less Trump. A lot of republicans are pro democracy and see the tantrums and related behaviour as anti democratic.

      As for him running again in 2024, I doubt thats going to happen, he has the IRS case, the multiple cases in NY as well as a number of others being worked on. He is facing a fairly lengthy fight in multiple arenas just to stay out of Jail.

    • FPTP forces them to vote strategically. How do we know they wouldn’t have voted for Kanye if they thought he had the numbers…?

  7. “two-thirds meaning 17 Republican votes ”
    Never gonna happen, Trump did very well in many states.The Dems will be keeping Trump alive (again GOP interest)

    40% of the GOP voters still want Trump in 2024 (the next possible candidate would be Pence with 18% LOL), after 4 years of Dems idiotic wokeness/Big Tech overreach (and probably war oversea) & against unpopular Harris, Trump could be back in charge LOL

    • I read someplace that Trump brought more votes than any one ever before from his party.
      Trump can become martyr if wokesters continue.
      The worst they can do to Trump is to let him fizzle and slowly fatigue him. But the wokesters don’t have a mental span past the goldfish standard so…

      Edit:
      LOL, I see Jason mentioned the same right below

  8. Seems crazy to make a martyr of him this way.

    For someone with his ego, surely the most powerful thing you can do to him is reduce him to irrelevancy by ignoring him.

    • Was going to say something very similar. Impeachment makes a martyr out of him and he remains newsworthy, which is what he wants. He also keeps his supporters who will believe that the establishment conspired to get rid of their hero. Donald lost and he’s about to exit stage left. Just let go into obscurity.

    • Agree. Plus they are antagonising his supporters and provoking them into even worse protests. I would have thought it best to simply shut him down and make him go quietly.

    • That would would seem to be the better strategy, but as I comment before, it assumes those pursuing it are driven by calculated logic, directed towards to largest net benefit for their constituents and the country. So, you’re already laughing by now right? Then all that’s left to say is that the halls of US politics are full of vindictive, egocentric narcissists every bit a deplorable as Trump (though a hell of a lot more experienced and nuanced in their execution). One must start any analysis of their potential actions from that starting point.

    • Why not both? Legally do what needs to be done and then just ignore the chap. If he has done something illegal, then he should face the consequences. Otherwise it’s another bit of white collar crime that is excused. And if it is excused once then it emboldens others to think that it can be done again.

      • Yes, both, but the law also provides for impeachment by the House (likely) and removal from office by the Senate (unlikely). These too should be pursued on principle and as the Constitution intended. American democracy is alive and bruised.

    • Impeaching him keeps him relevant & newsworthy which is the whole point. Muppets watching endless net flux & msm watching each professionally crafted scene on tv or device from comfort of architectural designed lounge or trailer park take their programmed side (blue red purple) parroting the script with breathtaking enthusiasm. The $how MUST go on.

      • He’s only relevant for a few more days. It is important that he be impeached in the meantime. GOP will desert him after that, given the Biden stimulus to fill the void, and he won’t be able to mobilise enough of the Q rabble to threaten GOP establishment. He has no hope as a third party.

  9. kierans777MEMBER

    When Trump was elected, I made a bet with an old work colleague that when the Republicans got sick of Trump’s antics and division they’d turn on him and he’d get booted out. I thought time was running out for me to win that bet, but maybe now I will 🤔

  10. When in combat, assuming that the enemy will do what suits you is a huge mistake. The Dems are bloviating about unity and healing and appear to assume that all those Trump supporters will heed their advice and simply roll over, and the Obama era status quo will resume. It’s not gonna happen, particularly as they engage in the process of making Trump a martyr.

    If the last 4 years of American politics seemed contentious and tumultuous, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

  11. Nope. He or his family or the hangers on will be back in some form, diminished or no.
    Democrats need to grow spines, and that starts with impeachment (And censures and electoral reform etc), but the focus needs to be making the GOP irrelevant by actually addressing about half of their electorates real concerns that are actual small l-labor issues (employment, house prices, education, healthcare) instead of getting bogged down in wokeness/ID politics and the usual pandering to corporate America.
    I would contend that there’s a greater chance of the Democrats splitting than there is the spineless GOP……since the Dem’s are still at their core a center-right party, shifting that massive circus into something resembling European social democrats maybe too big a task for such a diverse country.
    This will be their greatest challenge in the next two years, not the resurrection of Trumpism. That turd will always float to the top regardless of the amount of flushing.

    • So all it requires is one of the parties to completely reform themselves….. it’s all there on the table right? I don’t think anyone in this forum disagrees, so why is it not so?

      Wokeness is easy, wokeness is always acceptable (current zeitgeist), wokeness generates effort free attention, wokeness grants one effort free virtue (who needs to do actual charity work anymore, just repost a few activist messages or telegraph your faux outrage on social media). There are now countless individuals across the developed world whom have build their political careers on that platform alone (none to different then those that built one one simply being anti someone or something).

      At then end of the day, the other issues you mentioned take work, a need to understand occasionally complex issues and history, the ability to compromise and to communicate across divides, it’s hard work! Thus while the easy route is available, those in or seeking power will avail themselves of it.

      • The other issues are also often at odds with the desires of those that fund and control the political parties. They know on which side their bread is buttered.

      • Woke folk ..what a joke. Up to their necks in their own BS. Two sides of same coin.
        ’ Awake Asleep ..derogatory labels for plebs brainwashed successfully to believe their vote/voice can effect ‘change’ about any issue presented to them that require ‘change’ when in fact they are presented with the changes that will come into effect regardless…immy grate ion, $exism, femini$m, MGTOW, rain bow families, family of origin, addiction, mental health, Whyte men are evil, climbmate change..just say CC, T RAN$ issues, vuxxination,ray cismm, homelessness, unemployed, jobseeker scum, aussies that won’t do low jobs, they”re stealing our jerbs, hospital staff as hero’s,, everyone is potentially violent and aggressive behaviour (speaking up/out) won’t be tolerated in public spaces -hospitals- surgeries- banks – Centrelink, FVIO cos I feel scared etc socio – political sorcery via education (cradle to the grave) tv, de vices, zoom, sin enema, literature, blah blah blah:)$)$)$)

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Darn BB you beat me to my post lol. I was going to add that its too difficult to drum up outrage over lack of action on housing or education, and you can’t get people cancelled for failing to act on housing or education. Everyone these days is drunk on the intoxicating power of being able to act like tyrants, drumming up outrage and getting people cancelled, that they will never relinquish this power. Its all they have in their sad, small lives. If anything, expect it to be magnified and applied to everything, to the point of ridiculousness and beyond.

    • Nice post, thanks. Fascinating stuff and a real reminder of the difference between the public perception of ‘point and shoot’ jarheads and the reality of just how much time & intellect can (and is frequently) applied to the art of war.

    • Damn right! The professional soldiers and law enforcement are pissed off that their democracy is under siege by a fukwit Q rabble and thirty round rapid blowhards.

  12. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I’m starting to get intensely bored with all the Trump hysteria from both sides.
    He’s Gunna be out the door in a weeks time and all his antics after that can occupy the vacuous Celebrity pages instead of being “news”
    Thank Christ for that!
    Next!

    • + 1 But alas it won’t be going any time soon, too many clicks to be generated and far too much distraction to be milked from it (especially if your entire political or media identity was ‘im anti trump’.) Even the prior chief of CNN suggest that he has no idea what the network would become or could become post Trump.

      Imagine being in the US and enduring this for the last 5 years, I spent 3 weeks there last year during the 1st impeachment, with more time in airports than I care to remember. But what I do remember is literally 24/7 partisan media. I don’t think the average loud mouth here in AU really understands what that means and how it impacts people. 24 hours a day running some form of hysteria with each network picking a side, a constant stream of absiltly irrelevant talk heads and the occasional political shill wanting a sound bite, morning shows, late night shows, front page of every paper, every comedian starts a set with Trump this or that. CNN had a monopoly on airport news (now thankfully gone) and thus every terminal was like something out a movie, you could not walk anywhere in any major US airport terminal without ‘IMPEACH NOW’ scrolling across the screen. It really was largely inescapable for anyone that isn’t disconnected from the world.

      Absolutely zero surprise the public is as polarised as they are and I can’ see anything changing post Trump’s exit.

  13. The real question on everyone’s lips is if Trump was ‘el Trumpo’ what will be name for the the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Msm/big tech/antifa alliance? Big brother doesn’t sound very PC.

  14. Ailart SuaMEMBER

    “Is this the end for El Trumpo?”

    The real issue is not Trump: the issue is the primitive Constitution and electoral system that began failing the majority just over 40 years ago. It’s semi-democratic at best and has been well and truly ‘hijacked’ by elite donors. At least Trump appeared not to be a ‘donor’s puppet’.

      • Ailart SuaMEMBER

        Don’t know what your ‘nope’ refers to. A dysfunctional, donor-hijacked system that was throwing out so much bad leadership for so long was always going to result in the election of someone like Trump. The people were desperate for anything that appeared different from the ineptness of the past 40 years of US presidents.

        • The people were desperate for anything that appeared different from the ineptness of the past 40 years of US presidents.

          Not that desperate. More of them voted for Hillary, after all.

          • Ailart SuaMEMBER

            They were desperate middle-classes who’d had their quality of life wrecked by people like Clinton via the influences of elite donors. Of course many of those Trump voters soon realised that the ‘Trump dream’ had turned into a ‘Trump nightmare’. IMO, unless changes are made to the Constitution and electoral system, the quality of life for the majority of citizens will continue to deteriorate. The first change is to completely ban political donations and have elections funded with new issued currency – at zero cost to the taxpayer.

  15. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Trump will remain President for the next 4 years.

    This site has been overwhelmed by progressive left groupthink to the point it’s almost unreadable. Are there any posters remaining here that respect Trump and what he has done and will continue to do in leading the world?

    Hope you are all wearing your slave masks when you post to keep you all safe and passive.

    • “Trump will remain President for the next 4 years.”

      I’m guessing you will be wagering $50k on that? You will get mighty odds.

      • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

        Ginger, the election was fraudulent, with substantial evidence of so. Courts and legislatures failed to correct this, showing systemic failure of US institutions and deep and widespread corruption. The only remaining option to save the US republic is the military. I believe they will back Trump and act before the 20th. We’ll see.
        Evidence includes the current impeachment farce, rushed through without investigation, showing panic by democrats of whats coming. The coordinated censoring of Trump across social media platforms. State of Emergency declared in Washington DC.
        If everybody was just picking out their outfits for an inaguration next week you wouldn’t see the sort of tension and political conflict currently occurring.

    • Thanks for the response. You’re rusted-on support clouds your judgement in the face of compelling evidence to the contrary of just about everything you wrote. So, the military are going to identify and act on ‘evidence’ that every court has determined to be false. Really? That would be grand conspiracy for which there is, again, no evidence. Look, even GOP are calling Trump’s conduct ;unconscionable’. Regardless of what respect we should afford Trump for the good that he has done you should also be disinterested enough to acknowledge his flaws and, frankly, outrageous behaviour as President. It is a just outcome that he be impeached. As a person, he is an egotistical narcissist that should never be granted the right of office. 

  16. Re Trump:

    Even if the Republicans impeach him and prevent him ever holding office again, can they prevent him establishing or financing a new political party?

    Given Citizens’ United, it seems unlikely the Supreme Court would allow that.

    Until he dies, Trump might be a conservative third force – like the DLP in Australia – whose net effect will be to split the Republican vote and keep them out of office.

    Re Senate:

    Also, if the Democrats create two new Democrats States (Outer DC and Puerto Rico) they may control the Senate for decades.

    Re Supreme Court:

    Get ready for a new Judicial Procedures Reform Bill:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937

    This time the conservative judges are much younger.