Credit Suisse: Australian dollar tumble may deepen

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

JPM: Australian dollar overbought

Some technicals from Credit Suisse:

The market has reversed sharply from the key .7816 April 2018 high AUDUSD saw a sharp fall in early trading today back to the 13-day exponential average, currently at .7690, which ideally continues to hold to see the market shift into a high-level range, before the uptrend eventually resumes. However, we acknowledge that the risk of a deeper pullback remains high (see below), in particular as daily MACD momentum is breaking lower, and we therefore stay on a cautious footing. With the core uptrend remaining intact at present though and with a large “head and shoulders” base still in place, we see resistance initially at.7731, then .7799. Removal of here would open the door to another test of the pivotal April 2018 high at .7816, where we would expect to see initial sellers at first to maintain a new range. Beneath .7690 would instead confirm a deeper correction lower, with support seen initially at .7661, then more importantly at.7643, below which would trigger a small top. Beyond here would see a fall back to.7603/.7599, where an initial hold is expected. Further near-term sideways trading is expected at this stage below the key .7816 resistance.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. pfh007.comMEMBER

    76 cents?

    We better raise rates to provide support to the pacific peso by attracting lots of unproductive capital inflows.

    Middle Australia love their cheap imported cars !!!

    It has been quite liberating allowing local car production to shut down.

    Now we can focus on what really matters.

    A strong dollar and low cost imported goodies from those who are silly enough to continue to produce things.

    • Its all this money printing going on. Bonds are starting to rise. I suspect if they rise too high, you might get your interest rate rise.
      https://gyazo.com/d1e0f2d95016878a138246058fd48d82?token=61df6248f0881b817f1090298d029e0c

      Im a little cautious about all of this. I think I wont be convinced things are improving until House Prices begin to fall. If all we see is huge amounts of money printing pouring into house prices, then all we have is a donkey chasing a carrot. Completely pointless. The wealthier we become, the more expensive things become. Its all completely pointless, I think.

      Guess we will find out but Im not entirely convinced that social society can adapt as quickly as Governments can print money. We just destroyed 20 years of young life and now we just pretend all our problems have gone away. Have they?

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