The ABS has released preliminary retail sales for December, which fell sharply from November and missed analysts’ expectations:
Key statistics
The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 4.2% (-$1,329.9m) from November 2020 to December 2020.
In seasonally adjusted terms, Australian turnover rose 9.4% in December 2020 compared with December 2019.
Following the November rise, all industries except for Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services fell.
Household goods retailing led the falls (-9%), following the Black Friday sales, and new product releases, that boosted turnover in November.
Similarly, Other retailing, Department stores, and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, saw falls after reporting large rises in November.
Food retailing fell 2%, with sales across the Food industry down in Victoria and New South Wales in line with restrictions on Christmas gatherings.
Victoria led the falls by state, down 7% after a 22% rise in November. New South Wales saw a fall of 5%, with localised trading restrictions imposed in parts of Sydney impacting turnover.
In seasonally adjusted current price terms, the preliminary estimate shows the December quarter rose 2.4%. This follows a rise of 7.0% in the September quarter. Quarterly volume estimates will be included in the final release on 5 February 2021.
Economists tipped only a 1.5% monthly decline in retail sales.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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