• Exports of goods in December 2020 increased $4,901m (16%) to $34,927m
• Imports of goods in December 2020 decreased $2,521m (-9%) to $25,971m
• For December there is a goods trade surplus of $8,956m (original, current price, merchandise trade basis)
This publication presents preliminary data on Australia’s international trade in goods on an original, current price, merchandise trade basis. These data are subject to revision as more complete and accurate information becomes available. See Methodology for more details.
Exports
International trade in goods – exports summary (a)
Oct 2019
Nov 2019
Dec 2019
Oct 2020
Nov 2020
Dec 2020
Nov 2020 – Dec 2020
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
%
$m YoY
% YoY
Total goods
31,444
31,800
34,067
30,102
30,026
34,927
4,901
16
860
3
Rural goods
3,882
3,963
4,345
3,177
3,241
4,482
1,241
38
137
3
Non-Rural (b)
25,536
25,935
27,555
24,939
23,909
27,647
3,738
16
92
0
Non-monetary gold (c )
2,026
1,902
2,167
1,987
2,876
2,799
-77
-3
632
29
– nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
a. Caution should be used when interpreting preliminary estimates as they may be different to the final published estimates, and are subject to revision.
b. For all time periods, confidentialised export items are included in Non-rural goods, whether or not this reflects their true nature.
c. Includes Gold coin.
Exports key movements
Exports of goods in December 2020 increased from the revised November 2020 estimate of $30,026m by $4,901m (16%) to $34,927m.
Iron ore has driven the increase in metalliferous ores, it accounted for 82% of the total value and was up $2,165m to $12,510m. The increase in iron ore has been a result of both quantity, up 11% in December on November and strong prices, which has resulted in record values in December for iron ore and consequentially metalliferous ores.
December exports of cereals was the largest on record. The increase in cereals was driven by wheat, up $604m (423%) and barley, up $182m (254%) with 42% of December’s barley export headed for Saudi Arabia ($106m). Favourable growing conditions in Australia, coupled with less favourable conditions in other wheat growing regions such as Russia (the world’s largest wheat exporter), has driven demand for Australian wheat to record highs.
Australia’s three largest export destinations for coal all recorded large increases in December including: Japan, up $236m (27%), India, up $272m (38%), and South Korea, up $148m (48%).
Year-on-year
December 2020 exports are $860m (3%) higher than December 2019, driven by:
• metalliferous ores, up $3,603m (31%)
• cereals, up $689m (137%)
• non-monetary gold (excluding gold coin), up $612m (30%)
Offsetting the year-on-year increases were gas, down $1,519m (-35%) and coal, down $1,126m (-23%).
Exports for the 2020 calendar year were 7% lower overall than 2019.
Top five export destinations
Key country movements:
• China increased $2,312m (21%)
• Japan increased $864m (24%)
• United States of America increased $678m (58%)
• India increased $339m (35%)
• South Korea decreased $317m (-14%)
Increased exports to Japan were led by metalliferous ores up $298m (44%), predominantly iron ore, and coal up $236m (27%). The increase to coal exports were driven by thermal coal, up $130m (25%), and hard coking coal up, $108m (54%).
The United States of America and India displaced the United Kingdom and Singapore from the top five export destinations. Non-monetary gold drove the increase to the USA, up $646m (306%) and the increase to India was driven by coal, up $272m (38%) which was predominantly hard coking coal, up $268m (62%).
Exports to China
Driving the increase to Australia’s largest trading partner, China:
• metalliferous ores, up $2,094m (25%)
• cereals, up $248m (681%)
The increase in metalliferous ores to China was driven by iron ore, up $1,951m (25%) to $9,865m, accounting for 79% of Australian iron ore exports in December. The increase is driven by a rebound in quantity from November (up 15%) and strong prices. On average, China paid 9% more per tonne in December for Australian iron ore than in November.
Exports of wheat to China reached $250m, after nil exports since August 2020. This represented one third of the total wheat exported from Australia in December and 88% of the total cereal exports to China and is the largest monthly wheat export on record to any single destination country.
Imports
International trade in goods – imports summary (a)
Oct 2019
Nov 2019
Dec 2019
Oct 2020
Nov 2020
Dec 2020
Nov – Dec 2020
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
%
$m YoY
% YoY
Total goods
28,680
25,940
26,008
25,543
28,492
25,971
-2,521
-9
-37
-0
Capital goods (b)
7,008
6,524
7,136
6,411
8,623
6,984
-1,639
-19
-152
-2
Consumption goods
9,657
8,538
7,864
9,623
9,823
9,384
-439
-4
1,520
19
Intermediate & other goods
11,545
10,398
10,630
9,034
9,520
9,023
-497
-5
-1,607
-15
Non-monetary gold
469
480
378
475
526
580
54
10
202
53
– nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
a. Caution should be used when interpreting preliminary estimates as they may be different to the final published estimates, and are subject to revision.
b. For all time periods, confidentialised import items are included in Capital goods, whether or not this reflects their true nature
Nearly all of those export gains are related to China’s suicidal trade war on its own commodity supply chain. Even those to other Asian nations, which have seen price rises in the same commodities for the same reasons.
That’s what happens when sensible policy process is displaced by the prejudices of the dictator.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
