Australian immigration turns sharply negative

On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released overseas arrivals and departures data for November, which revealed that immigration has turned sharply negative.

As shown in the next chart, long-term departures exceeded long-term arrivals by 19,270 in the 8 months to November 2020:

This has reduced annual long-term arrivals to only 93,410 in the year to November 2020, the lowest number since 1999:

The next chart shows how the monthly net long-term arrivals data shows a strong historical correlation with the ABS’ official quarterly net overseas migration (data), which is only current to June 2020:

Thus, Australia’s official immigration rate will soon tank.

Finally, the next chart shows that the falling immigration has been driven to a significant extent by collapsing international student arrivals:

This all aligns with the Federal Budget’s NOM forecast, which projected declines of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22:

 

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