On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released overseas arrivals and departures data for November, which revealed that immigration has turned sharply negative.
As shown in the next chart, long-term departures exceeded long-term arrivals by 19,270 in the 8 months to November 2020:
This has reduced annual long-term arrivals to only 93,410 in the year to November 2020, the lowest number since 1999:
The next chart shows how the monthly net long-term arrivals data shows a strong historical correlation with the ABS’ official quarterly net overseas migration (data), which is only current to June 2020:
Thus, Australia’s official immigration rate will soon tank.
Finally, the next chart shows that the falling immigration has been driven to a significant extent by collapsing international student arrivals:
This all aligns with the Federal Budget’s NOM forecast, which projected declines of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22: