See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
There’s been big moves – outside of Bitcoin – in currency land today with the PBOC putting a big kick under the Yuan, strengthening it significantly against USD, moving the fix over 600 pips in a single day!
The PBOC shifted the fix from 6.5408 to 6.4760, with offshore trading sending it down below the 6.43 handle, not far off the 2017 low at 6.22 or so:
Meanwhile the roundtripping in Bitcoin “value” has been mindboggling in the last 24 hours, with the 10% plus gap up on the Monday open followed by a near complete pullback overnight and now a reflexive move back above $32000, helped by JP Morgan’s note on the “quantifiable intrinsic value” released today. The 30 minute chart seems to be following the usual technical rules, but volatility remains epic:
The Australian dollar has recovered half of its losses overnight, hovering just below the 77 handle after the positive December ANZ Jobs print. There’s still no stopping the Pacific Peso, still helped by a buoyant iron ore price:
- Macro Afternoon - January 20, 2021
- Macro Morning - January 20, 2021
- Macro Afternoon - January 19, 2021
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Macro Afternoon
Asian share markets are somewhat mixed and
When will the Australian dollar turn lower?
A couple of charts today show that there is a
Macro Morning
Two events changed risk appetite overnight with
Macro Afternoon
Asian share markets are no longer unsettled
Job ads…..mmmmm no. Dow losing 700 then gaining 300 – yes.
Bitcoin
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/03/bitcoin-bull-trap-snaps-shut/
Bitcoin as a truly unregulated market is an almost textbook example of that bubble graph in the article. It just doesn’t show that it continues to repeat over and over, although the mean line for BTC is increasing fairly rapidly as well compared with that.
Buy in the despair or revert to mean stages and sell hopefully in the delusion/denial stage, rinse and repeat. You just need to be willing to park your money for a few years with an understanding you could lose it all.
The greater short term volatility compared with other exchange rates probably reflects much lower trading volumes than the others, and will probably eventually smoothen out, although it would allow for epic day trading profits at the moment for someone so inclined.
“Actually, I think it is going to zero. ”
– David Llewellyn-Smith February 5, 2018
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/02/why-bitcoin-is-going-below-zero/
Give it another 18 months
TM, just like the housing crash…..
you guys sound like the worst kind of teenagers ( and young 20 yos)picking faults with the authorities specifics while not understanding that its just part of the bigger system working.
DLS makes many predictions and I welcome him doing that knowing he may get some wrong.
I still think it was a reasonable probability at the time; it was (still is) a threat to monetary sovereigns, hegemony, law and order, and financial markets to an extent and they could have regulated it out. Remember the British made using any other medium of exchange/currency treason; moving crypto somewhere into AML/CTF legislation wouldn’t be difficult.
The fact is regulators are too late now as institutional money has entered the market and plutocracy won’t allow it; whether that was the reason it wasn’t regulated out in the first place or it was something else is hard to say.
It is no more or less a threat to money sovereignity han gold or silver.
I’m failing to see where I said it was…
In its current form it is far less of a threat than even silver.
Volatility
Where do you think AUD tops out? I wanna buy some USD for future travel, but by the same token if everyone there is getting 2k checks, maybe I wait…
I’d like to know that too but I think the question is really where does the USD bottom? A lot of commentary about suggesting it’s a long way down from here.
Best guess is it tops with Iron Ore. If you want to hedge against debasement vs the USD you’re better off with a physical gold ETF or buy a small parcel of CROC on the NYE (ARCA).