Vaccine impact on US Hospitalizations
Hospital utilization has been a key factor driving reopening sentiment.COVID-19has proven to be most deadly to vulnerable populations when adequate medical care is not available. Campaigns to “flatten the curve” in March/April had the stated goal of reducing the potential for the pandemic to overwhelm the hospital system. The rise in hospitalizations in recent weeks has increased discussions of whether additional restrictions/closures are appropriate and has coincided with sideways trading in stocks levered to the reopening of the economy over the past nine trading days. In the next few weeks, we believe a rapid decline in hospitalizations driven by the first phase of the vaccine distribution has the potential to be a key inflection point in investor sentiment on the reopening of the economy. Reduced hospitalizations are likely to lead to reduced COVID-19 deaths, which will boost sentiment even more broadly.
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