DXY firmed last night:
Australian dollar eased:
EMs are outpacing AUD:
Metals up:
Miners up:
EM up:
Junk up:
Treasuries bid:
Stocks mixed:
Westpac has the wrap:
Event Wrap
US fiscal stimulus: Congress continues to prepare stimulus plans, with efforts coalescing around McConnell’s USD900bn deal, and with government funding now approaching a potential deadline on 11 December (possibly extended to 18 December).
Brexit talks: UK PM Johnson held a call with EC President von der Leyen, as British officials warned that trade talks could collapse unless negotiators make rapid progress. The two started talking at 5pm Brussels time, but are yet to release details of their conversation.
German industrial production in October reflected recent strength in factory orders and retail sales, rising +3.2%m/m (est. +1.6%m/m), with the annual decline at -3.0%y/y (est. -4.6%y/y, prior revised from -7.3%y/y to -6.7%y/y).
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose from -10.0 to -2.7 (est. -7.8).
Event Outlook
Australia: The NAB business survey is sitting around pre-COVID levels ahead of the November update; the confidence rebound seen in the October survey was driven by Victoria’s reopening.
Euro Area: The ZEW survey of expectations has been pushed lower in recent months by concerns around the growth profile, but the December release will be supported by positive vaccine news. The final estimate of Q3 GDP will likely remain unchanged (market f/c: 12.6%).
US: Consumer credit is expected to remain around $16.1bn in October as auto-loan and credit-card debt lead the recovery. Finally, November NFIB small business optimism is set to remain in limbo until the picture around the vaccine, the spread of COVID, and the stimulus package becomes clearer (market f/c: 102.5).
Europe is beating the virus:
The US has flattened the curve but it has more work to do:
Hence the latter is still slowing:
But there is this for next year:
And we got this too:
So, more Australian dollar upside with volatility!
