Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Asian stocks are regaining after their stumble yesterday, and despite the threatened veto by almost-former President Trump to stop the just-passed US stimulus package, S&P futures are on the mend as risk markets re-balance from that catalyst.  Bitcoin continues to rebuff the $24000 resistance level while gold has failed to gain any traction, heading back down to its intraweek lows just above the $1860USD per ounce level as momentum heads into the negative danger zone:

The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% or just below the 3400 point level going into the close, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is up over 0.5% to 26270. Japanese stock markets are putting in a mild session, with the Nikkei 225 still stuck in a sideways trend and closing 0.3% higher to 26259 points. Meanwhile the USDJPY pair has been unable to cross above short term resistance at the 103.80 level, still in its own medium term downtrend as the short term uptrend begins to rolls over:

The ASX200 was able to flip back into the positive zone, up nearly 0.5% to 6649 points, still below the previous 6700 point level but looking a bit steadier. The Australian dollar was able to rebound very slightly this morning with a small bounce back up to the mid 75 level but the four hourly chart is still suggesting a rollover back to the previous weekly support level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are struggling to regain their mid-session composure due to the Trump dump, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still showing increased volatility as we head into the Christmas break. The market remains unable to clear the important 3700 resistance level so I’m still watching for a potential break below the 3650 level:

The economic calendar includes US durable goods orders for November and the latest core inflation data plus weekly initial jobless claims and Michigan consumer sentiment.

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Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Making & designing mill vice for bonemans CNC today. Milling the vee then milling horizontal jaws teeth in the vee. Already done the criss cross jaws

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      When that song came out I was almost 11 years old and in love for the first time with this pretty little Blond haired Tom boy in my class called Peta.
      I would ride my bike over to the block of units she lived in and loudly call out her name, repeatedly, until she came down to see me.
      I would then impress her with a variety of stunts performed on my BMX bike before spending the rest of the afternoon talking, laughing and hanging out in the park across the road together.
      Life felt like it was as good as it could get,….I had found My Girl.
      I had found happiness!
      Until the day I spotted Troy Moynihan stroking the back of Peta’s calf during a class documentary viewing.
      Half the class was sitting on the floor and the other half at their desks.
      Peta was at her desk with Troy boy sitting in front of her stroking away for the whole video!
      I felt so betrayed!
      How could she let him! touch her after she had been so impressed with all my stunts and visits.
      They started “going” together and I was heart broken and forgotten.
      That crappy Rick Springfield pop song sounded like it was written for me and my rejection at the time even though my nemesis was a Troy and not a Jessy (odd boys name BTW)
      I copied that song on to a tape (off “Rock of the 80s 2SM” I think) and listened to it repeatedly with sorrow in my heart,…Untill I became keen on this other Sheila in me class anyway.

      Still, I never hear that song without thinking about her.

    • Why do I get this feeling that cases in NSW will mysteriously go back up after Christmas ? Boris just got caught out doing this exact same nonsense and the NHS hospitals are filling fast now. Of course it is a much smaller base of cases but it is a certainty that the new variant will escape hotel quarantine in Sydney with their track record…..at least Singapore is trying to protect us.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The contrast between Andrews and Gladys is stark. There was a degree of frankness with Sutton in particular, that is lacking in the NSW pressers. The absence turns the dial on the BS detector.

    • Check out the body language of the woman standing behind the bin chicken – I think she is the chief scientist (or sumfing). Goes from a steady gaze and planted feet to looking at the ground and shuffling her feet. Not what you call as having a poker face.

  1. OCEAN FREIGHT COSTS …

    The Real Cost Of Ocean Freight Out Of Asia Is Hitting “Unbelievable” Heights … Mike Wackett of The Loadstar / Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-cost-ocean-freight-out-asia-hitting-unbelievable-heights

    Notwithstanding further rate spikes this week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is still understating the prices shippers are paying carriers, according to a senior analyst. “It should be noted that the market is at a point where the SCFI is, in some cases, significantly underestimating actual rates paid,” said SeaIntelligence’s Lars Jensen.

    However, the SCFI’s comprehensive index, reading 2,411.82, is 167% higher than a year ago, reflecting huge spot rate increases across all export trades from Asia. For example, rates to the South American east coast are recorded at some 200% higher than 12 months ago, while intra-Asia spots are 450% more expensive. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Some interesting stuff, trying to find the article Niko posted a few weeks back regarding Asia taking in massive numbers of empty containers so they could service exports and not taking inbound goods as empties more valuable. Trying to link it all together….(maybe it can’t be, just triggered my memory).

  2. Wistful Ermo laments a childish
    Escapism
    I drown in the sorrow of my disgust.
    Every long term ex girlfriend married
    The very next guy that came along.
    Seven out of seven is uncanny
    Why did they even touch me?

  3. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    When do we find out who the elites are that failed to isolate in their mansions properly, and wrecked Sydney’s Christmas?

    What was Hazzard hiding when he berated the health department?

    When will Gladys, Hazzard and Morrison resign?

    So many questions, no answers.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      *Ring Ring*

      Yeah
      Barnaby. It’s Reinhart
      *Barnaby sits up*
      Yes Gina.
      Reinhart
      Okay. Yes Reinhart
      Miss Reinhart.
      Sorry. Miss Reinhart
      Be quiet you fool

      Listen, too much anti-profit…umm, anti-China talk
      I know right. Why, just th…
      Be quiet you fool

      Do something about it. Refloat the boat. Something like that. Just shut the preacher up.
      Preacher?
      Morrison you fool!!
      Yes ma’am
      Reinhart
      Yes Reinhart
      Miss Reinhart. Remember, I own you Barnaby
      Joyce
      Shut up Barnaby

    • The Nats will never have to worry about meeting carbon reduction targets; the cvnts will lay waste to Australia long before then.

  4. And if I hadn’t blown this whole
    Thing down years ago
    I might not be alone
    Tomorrow we tram around this town
    With our masks only half down
    And let the cops chase around

  5. Can you hear them
    They’re talking about us
    Telling lies
    Well that’s no surprise
    Can you see them
    See right through them
    Morrisons tards
    Well that’s no surprise

  6. When I’m awake
    And Im just so strung out
    I’m not even high as a kite
    I’m just ropable af

  7. NEW ZEALAND’S HYPERINFLATING HOUSING CIRCUS …

    The value of residential real estate sold in Auckland jumps in 2020 and almost equals the value in the rest of the country, REINZ sales data shows. Tight supply and high demand feature almost everywhere … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108518/value-residential-real-estate-sold-auckland-jumps-2020-and-almost-equals-value-rest

    The annual review of New Zealand’s residential property market in 2020 has shown a 24.7% increase in overall spend from $48.7b for the 11 months ending November 2019 compared $60.8b for the 11 months ending November 2020, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

    In Auckland, the increase is even higher, with a 40.8% increase from $20.8b for the 11 months ending November 2020, to $29.2b for the 11 months ending November 2020 – an additional $8.4b.

    Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “The 2020 property market has performed in a way that we may not have expected just 11 months ago. The results have been influenced by a number of key themes including: … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Kiwis splash out $12b more in house buying frenzy this year … Catherine Harris … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/123799660/kiwis-splash-out-12b-more-in-house-buying-frenzy-this-year

    • NEW ZEALAND: 2021 … JACINDA ARDERN’S GOVERNMENT DESERVED LOOMING YEAR IN HOUSING HELL …

      … No wonder the latest IPSOS Issues Monitors find that ‘housing’ is a major concern of 53% (highest on record) of New Zealanders (up from 37% in the previous quarter) … 16% of Australians … 14% of the British …

      … New Zealand has by far and away the worst housing crisis at a national level within the English – speaking world (Demographia Housing Affordability Surveys) … and by far and away the highest homelessness rate in the OECD (latest ANZ Bank Economics Unit Report) …

      Residents express hopelessness as houses in poverty-hit Ōtara sell for $1m … Jordan Bond … Radio New Zealand

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/433354/residents-express-hopelessness-as-houses-in-poverty-hit-otara-sell-for-1m
      .
      .
      … Wow … a Wellington example … Poor Porirua has the most hyperinflated residential rents …

      ‘Desperation’ for homes driving rent prices up in small-town New Zealand … Vita Molyneux … Newshub

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/12/desperation-for-homes-driving-rent-prices-up-in-small-town-new-zealand.html

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        So many words written about NZ ( and Australian) housing inflation ……when the solution is in plain sight
        ….aggressive policies to stop speculation in shelter
        ….but the banks and people’s savings and super are so embedded in this sh1t and there is no way out now ….
        ….so yada yada yada …..drone on drone on
        Inflation is hidden in houses and it’s the only place left to store any value to money

        We know how we got here ….not sure if anyone knows the way out

  8. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    4 elites from the project, interviewed Hazzard and not a word about the elites that wrecked Christmas for Sydney.

    Elites looking after elites looking after elites.

      • SweeperMEMBER
        December 23, 2020 at 9:01 am
        Why is it the “aspirational” outer suburb food court class can’t see that some can have a perspective contrary to their own circumstance?

        • Wochenendlesung Bitter

          That’s one of Sweeper’s comments I hadn’t seen before. For the record, if you live in Queensland and like to eat a variety of good food, there are times you actively have to seek out a foodcourt you know well, every now and again.

          • Food court.

            *sigh*

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJyEF1sncUM

            Food Court
            ************
            Frenzal Rhomb
            Then you said
            Meet me at the food court at 10am
            Or there abouts you weren’t quite sure
            Savages are closing in
            I grit my teeth

            And I’ll be waiting
            Watching the fights
            Caused by all the
            MDMA leeching away
            And I’ll be waiting
            Fluorescent lights
            Thinking about all of the things that we’ve done right

            In the place
            The city and the suburbs meet
            It won’t be long
            ‘Til there’s some sh!t going down
            I belong
            Everywhere that you are found

            And I’ll be waiting
            Watching the fights
            Caused by all the
            MDMA leeching away
            And I’ll be waiting
            Fluorescent…

  9. Wochenendlesung Bitter

    So what did we get our significant other(s) for Christmas this year? World peace? An anonymous Greens membership? A highrise garden?

  10. $111,000 fines flagged for Facebook comments under cyber bullying crackdown
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/morrison-government-proposed-new-online-safety-reforms-to-tackle-adult-cyber-abuse/news-story/b51ff68d3cf981fd6ee91759628962df

    This is only just the beginning. People with anything to say will be ignored ( like Macrobusiness has been for years ) and anyone who does speak up, will be fined.

    Government will have complete control to excercise whatever corruptions it wishes, without citizen response.

    Tiny steps. Just little steps. Little steps each day towards the path of Communism. You’ll be wishing for suicide before long because it’ll be the easier alternative then what the Government has planned.

    Being Australian doesnt mean much anymore. Your only valuable if your Chinese. Your seeing it already because you know, the Chinese have money ( or some other BS excuse ).

    The young will be murdered off so Australia can be conquered.

  11. Here on this mountaintop, oh-oh-oh
    I got some wild, wild life
    I got some news to tell you, oh-oh
    About some wild, wild life
    Here come the doctor in charge, oh-oh-oh
    She’s got some wild, wild life
    Ain’t that the way you like it, oh-oh?
    Living wild, wild life