Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Will Bitcoin destroy the US dollar?

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Asian stocks are in full flight as the selling gains traction following the fallout from the UK lockout and the European lockdowns as the Congress stimulus package (let them eat cake basically) underwhelms. Bitcoin is levitating just under the $23000 level while gold has tried to regain its previous heights after the big roundtrip last night, currently at the $1878USD per ounce level as momentum remains nominally positive going into the London session:

The Shanghai Composite is falling going into the close, currently down 0.4% at 3407 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off a little further, down nearly 0.5% to 26163. Japanese stock markets are falling even more sharply, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% lower to 26509 points while the USDJPY pair is also trying to hold a steady course after its own roundtrip overnight, still struggling to get back to the mid 103 level, remaining in its medium term downtrend:

The ASX200 however was the worse off, down over 1% to 6599 points, not just keeping well clear of the 6700 point level but also dropping through the psychological key level of 6600 points. The Australian dollar was able to hold on this morning and through the November retail sales print, but is fading fast in the afternoon, getting back  below the 76 handle as the four hourly chart looks like going into full retracement back to the previous 74 cent support level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are almost there themselves, nearing full retracement mode, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing another smackdown here as it proves unable to clear the important 3700 resistance level decisively. Watch for a potential break below the 3650 level tonight and possibly further:

The economic calendar includes German and US consumer confidence plus the US final 3Q GDP print.

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    • Go to the local golf course Boom – heaven for dogs (and kids) at the moment with courses closed. We went again today and had the whole course to ourselves – plenty of dams and hills for the dog to wear himself out – had to call him out of one bunker though.
      Very few masks down at Manly Beach today and not a lot of social distancing either.

      • Wochenendlesung Bitter

        If you’d thought ahead, you could have taken a bucket and spade and just left him there in the sand to play all day quite happily.

        Edit: oh, you meant the dog.
        Edit: same, same.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        C3PO
        Yep saw Manly first hand.
        boomengineeringMEMBER
        December 22, 2020 at 7:03 am
        Yep, can see another wave (Covid) as riding past Manly (which was pumping, near glass on independent banks) heaps of non distancing walkers, watchers, groups, etc.. Had a bit of trouble getting home even though the new gear synchronize was a joy to begin with. Trouble started when a step frame was spotted on a throw out which was promptly scabbed by the writer because the bonemans job yesterday needed a pulley change requiring such step to reach. Anyhow the way home was fraught with dangerous object dangling from the hand/bar. This was compounded by the forced testing out of the left shifter being hit, changing the front derailer in the most inopportune moments, especially up the last hill.
        After all that trouble, gave it to old cat to jump to food bowl which was permanently placed high out of reach of you know who, ( a thief dressed in black (RIP)

        REPLY

    • I took a mates Pittie for a walk recently. The reaction with him was totally different to when I walked my Foxie X JRussell. Plenty of space 🙂

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Bogan out for a run in the morning. Old junker pulls up, older lady driving, son in passenger seat with a stubby.

          Hey mate, you see a stray dog running around?
          No. Just came from down that way and saw nothing so head up towards the park
          Cheers, we’ll head up
          You’re just up this street here eh
          Yeah
          What type of dog? I’ll catch it if I see it
          Little brown one…Red-nosed Pittie. Name’s Bella
          Right

          Mother and son drive off in search.
          Bogan considers.
          Bogan frightened.
          Bogan runs home to get Lovey to inform the neighbourhood on Facebook to stay home.

          • I picked up a stray one once, wasn’t sure of me but was happy enough to do the circuit with my little one & settled in. Found the owners a few k’s later – Addled Ice heads…. Wrong type for that dog.

        • Lol, I don’t think they’re the only ones that need sleeping pills. Blue Heelers at top of my “Never Trust” list. The “American Staffie’s” nature is less possessive than real Staffies. And so long as they’ve been bought up right (as with all dogs) they’re ok. Unfortunately these kind of dogs are usually owned by the wrong types compensating for something, those owners lack self control let alone controlling a potential weapon, which really brings them undone. In saying that, I’d definitely hate to be on the wrong side of one. When they whip around, it’s like they’ve got an extra vertebrae in their backs – catches your attention……

      • Wochenendlesung Bitter

        The first thing I thought of as the likely rationale was Ermo’s seatless bicycle. Sadly.

      • Wochenendlesung Bitter

        Oooooooh! Someone’s not being a very naughty boy this evening. Please tell me you are at least giving it away though?

  1. American citizens are thrilled to know their Senate included $453m for Ukraine in the stimulus package.

    • Just like ours are extatic at the idea of $50,000 in tax rebates to any non-citizen buying a new property in WA… oh wait, ours don’t know shoot outside The Block reruns and Masked Singer

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I think you’ll find all good people are supportive of any investment in boosting house prices!

  2. $900bn for 3 months. And then another $900bn.. unless Dem win Georgia in which case they’ll do $7tn.

    • Disagree because historically the Republicans don’t care about deficits, when in control, and play a game with Dems who fret over it when Republicans or they are in power.

      Rumsfeld …. eh – ?????

      • what is your point skipp?
        It’s irrelevant if Rep historically like or dislike deficits. Main point is if Dems win Georgia it will be lot easier for them to get any stimulus over the line.

        • But but but, Rummy! Ergo Cargill, Monsanto, CFR, Chicago Boys, Plazza Accord, Rome Club, AET, Mount Pellarin, institute of New Economic – you know the drill.

        • That’s neat. I wonder if we can organise an event with Martin North and Nathan Birch. On Mr. Birch, I was chatting with a friend and things turned money. He works at a mine and was telling me that he has a bit of the golden handcuffs problem. Not too great, yet he isn’t handing in his resignation tomorrow. However he is adverse to housing. He asked me “Have you heard of Nathan Birch? Everyone at the mine has multiple IPs and talk about this guy endlessly.” I never doubted the veracity of Mr Bogan’s tales of the mines yet it was good to have some independent verification. I did pass on some Mr North to my friend as he’s never had the pleasure of witnessing a sermon from the great man.

  3. Checkmate Australia

    New strain of the virus in South Africa that targets the young.

    We should ban all flights from the UK as well.

    • When a dozen or so countries have already banned the UK it seems beyond insane that we are still permitting it …

      • Well actually, all those countries don’t have any quarantine like us, so that is their response. Pretty sure we’ll be OK….

      • Wochenendlesung Bitter

        Normally you’re so nonchalant about CV19 flare-ups. You worried about future ’supply-chain’ issues with this one?

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          Yes. Yes I am. I’m not too fussed about wrinkly old people but if it gets any of my beautiful nubiles I’ll be peeved. Hey I may even worry about myself too but I’m fit and strapping and no other disease has knocked me around before so I’ll be aok.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Along with the great work Scomo has done for our nation over the last year or so I think NSW is about to prove the superiority of Liberal Nationalist governments!

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Yeah it’s ridiculous.

      I have some friends whose kids play in the Premier Academy League for more wealthy soccer families and they have been told that if your kids played between 10am and midday on the 13th you have to get tested and isolate for 14 days regardless. But there’s 12 fields at the grounds it’s played at and that was ages ago.

      Also only a couple of Northern Beaches teams out of about 50. So it’s a shot gun blast into the air. Needless to say they have decided to be covid tester dodgers! Good on them!

      • Wochenendlesung Bitter

        You can be assured this is down to all the Dewish health professionals on the advisory committee.

  5. 9yo daughter just going to sleep.

    “Tomorrow is the last day you are spending on YouTube”.

    “Yeah, you guys always say that, but I still go on YouTube.”

    *sigh*

  6. I just had an offer accepted on a (cheap) house in Perth. It’s so cheap it’d be positively geared from day 1 if I rented it out. And that’s with plenty of work to do on it. I’m thinking of a fixed rate mortgage for 5 years (longest I’ve found so far). I can’t imagine rates getting much lower than this. I’d really appreciate your opinions.

    • “I can’t imagine rates getting much lower than this. ”

      Words that could have been spoken any time over the last 7 or 8 years. Variable rates are more likely to reflect your rental income over time.

    • Pinata economics is what is needed.
      Because it serves 2 goals. 1. weakens the Pinata & 2. releases wealth hoarded by the Pinata.
      In contrast to MMT which does neither.

      • MMT is not an economic policy …. duh …. its just a description … for considering economic policy …

        Some suggest a social democratic means to arrive at said economic policy … then some wingnuts ascribe all sorts things to MMT that it is not … is that reflective of MMT or the wing nuts – ????

        • So why was Kelton suggesting concrete policy proposals, advising (muddying the waters) Bernie etc.?

          “My wealthy friend doesn’t want to pay for your child care. He doesn’t want to help pay off your student loans. And he sure as heck doesn’t want to shell out the big bucks for a multi-trillion-dollar Green New Deal”

          Oh yeah lets not upset our “wealthy friends”

          “The problem is that every politician is confronted with the question, “How are you going to pay for it?” What these journalists are really asking is, ‘Who’s going to pay for it?’”

          “The question is designed to stop any meaningful policy debate by dividing us up, and get us fighting over where the money is going to come from”

          Lets not “divide people up”

          You’d be hoping it isn’t policy because it sure as hell isn’t a description of capitalism in 2020.

          • when did we ever have true capitalism and was it ever possible?
            Almost every single market and claim to private property was created by state intervention / including and usually force.

          • FFS stop conflating MMT with policy suggestions, I’m PKE and forward social democracy but that does not change MMT. My advocacy for a JG rather than hyper inflation hysteria structural un under employment oligarchical stocking stuffer does not change MMT.

            Your grievance is using taxes to pay for national stuff, not mine, not MMT, Pigovian taxes is another thing.

          • “FFS stop conflating MMT with policy suggestions”

            All I did was quoted Kelton and pointed out her policy roles.

            “The question is designed to stop any meaningful policy debate by dividing us up”

            Here is a not too subtle critique of this MMT “descriptive” fantasy:

            People are already divided up.

          • ***Sigh***

            MMT does not have any inherent ideological baggage which dictates flows, orthodox did not even have a functional model, but deemed how flows should be allocated anyway – so please show where MMT has this human agency. Best bit is the gold bugs wobbling on about how it would stop the same result when historically, as you point out, through the conquistadors – just the opposite happens.

            All MMT does it accurately inform the framework for debate about policy, rather than contorted antiquarian social musings informed by the creators captains picks. I mean just look at the U.S. covid package …..

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I think this whole “Pinata” thing is a disgustingly insensitive form of Cultural appropriation.
        Has anyone asked the Mexicans if they are OK with all this talk?
        What’s next?
        A fancy dress MB Christmas party where everyone comes in Black face and Native American head dress to beat some pinata open with an Aboriginal woomera!
        I can barely contain my outrage!

    • I think people are cottoning on that just by making the wealthy poorer – even if the wealth is just destroyed and not distributed to the masses – means society is better off.
      eg. smashing the Pinata and flushing the contents means everyone has a better party vs not smashing the pinata.

      • I think people are cottoning on that you are nothing but a pathetic loser and a coward.
        A loser because you are not wealthy. So here you are whingeing because in your deluded sick mind if a self-important self-proclaimed ‘smart’ man like yourself that dabbles in ‘serious economics’ isn’t wealthy, than nobody should.
        A coward because instead of for once using those atrophied microscopic testicles of yours and having the guts to take the wealth away from other people by yourself, you’d rather hide behind the skirt of your beloved nanny government to do the dirty work for you.

        • The Government is just a reflection of orthodox economics, neoliberalism insured that paradigm, so banging on about Government lets the actual miscreants off the hook.

          BTW Corporatism was not a left wing anything pogrom.

        • Why is it the “aspirational” outer suburb food court class can’t see that some can have a perspective contrary to their own circumstance?