Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Better hopes for a stimulus package from the US Congress is sending the USD down and risk up across Asia today, with strong moves locally as the iron ore price keeps heading to the moon. Bitcoin is holding just below the weekly highs at the $19400 level, while gold has found a small bid above the $1850USD per ounce level as its short term breakout floats a little higher:

The Shanghai Composite is up about 0.2% going into the close at 3356 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has tried to take back its previous losses, up nearly 0.8% at the 26422 point level. Japanese stock markets are having a quiet day due to some poor internal figures plus the stronger Yen, with the Nikkei 225 closing only 0.2% higher at 26735 points while the USDJPY pair is making good on its breakdown of former weekly support at the 103.70 level, heading straight towards the 103 handle:

The ASX200 is the best in the region, up a solid 0.8% to 6685 points, still just shy of the 6700 point level which maybe tossed aside soon if confidence gets another RBA QE kick, with the Australian dollar retracing slightly, still above the 75.50 cent level against USD – or is that a triple top bearish pattern I spot on the four hourly chart?

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are zoom higher on the prospect of a potential pre-Christmas stimulus package from Congress and is very news sensitive at the moment, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 ready to breach above the early week session high and potentially get back above the 3700 point level:

The economic calendar is a bit more lively tonight, with the latest US retail sales data but also a slew of flash PMIs across Europe and the US.

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Comments

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Bet they get a school named after them for building something that will fall down in ten years.

      Fry a horse though…

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          “Where the court imposes a fine, it may commit, or further commit, the contemnor to prison until the fine is paid.”

          It’s at the court’s discretion.

    • ahhh the Maco and the Albanian. Whay only $400k fine? If I have it my way Historic buildings will carry $1m minimum for destroying a historic building, plus legal costs and few additional fines for breaching building codes and some time behind bars.

    • Reminds me of the hatchet job Paspaley did on the Green Room. Survived the bombing of Darwin, numerous cyclones and drunken nights but not a developer.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I have posted multiple warnings over the past year about the ongoing viability of Xinja on this site.

      This is no surprise. Blaming Covid is cheeky though. They were in trouble well before Covid hit!!

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Their main problem was they only offered a ‘saving / deposit’ product which paid out a higher rate than the cash rate.

          They originally offered this high interest rate to attract customer funds quickly so they could then leverage that to offering loan and mortgage products (which would generate income for them and at least offset the cost of the saving deposits).

          This never happened and they were left paying out high interest with no income (expect from addition liquidity top ups from external investors). From news.com

          “At the beginning of 2020, Xinja advertised a lucrative 2.25 per cent savings rate on its deposit accounts that was initially retained after the Reserve Bank clipped the cash rate twice in March due to the lockdown.”

          Eventually they did slash the rate and put in some other caveats on their savings product, but that just drove more customers to move their funds out of Xinja. This was partly as they made a big deal back in March about not cutting their rates and how they were better than the other (greedy) banks by keeping the higher rate. Nothing like betraying your customers trust by doing the opposite a few months later!

          The writing was on the wall back in Feb 2020. Luckly few (if any) customers would be over the $250K ADI limit (due to the rules they had set up on the accounts).

    • She’ll be right mate!

      Customers’ money will be transferred to another banking account. The federal government guarantees up to $250,000 of someone’s funds if an institution collapses.

      That paragraph is the murkiest thing I’ve read in a while! I suppose we’ll find out how much of a shave unsecured creditors will get and how quickly ScoMo will re-announce the guarantee… he-he-he!

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Only certain circumstance will guarantee 250K not all banks as well. In any case garrantee laws very murky .

        • Of course I knew that. Why I quoted that paragraph was because the soothing sounds coming from the ‘journalist’ were almost hilarious! He’s hoping that no one else knows how dodgy the guarantee is… and he’s probably right too.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          The government guarantee is a defacto total fraud and the ACCC should make every ADI that refers to it on their website (including many quite prominently on their home pages etc) or otherwise, remove all reference to it and require them to also put an unequivocal warning on their website and otherwise, that deposits are effectively able to be bailed in if an ADI gets in to financial distress.

    • “And I think hosting APEC might well be the opportunity… but both parties will have to be willing to come together and concede in some areas where they are currently not seeing eye to eye.”

      I read that as NZ pushing Australia to bend the knee. Those traitors. Get rid of the trans tasman travel arrangement i say.

      • There’s no such thing anyway. At any rate their Commonwealth status would be stronger than some “trans tasman” yadda yadda. Anyway they can have Tasmania……

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The Kiwis refused to fight the Japs in WW2. The kept their troops in Europe fighting for Great Britain, despite Curtain and MacArthur’s request for them to return to fight in the Pacific. The Pakeha can never to be trusted.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      How long so you think Kayleigh McCrazy spends in front of the mirror each morning talking to herself, trying to believe that this is all a legitimate conspiracy?

  1. Soo, At least 3 self funded retiree’s I know are selling their Div shares & TD’s & buying houses. Risk reward is their thesis & they think it’s a common theme among their cohort. (TD’s I understood, Div Shares surprised me, but growth is their guess, I guess)

    • One would hope that growth comes with a huge Negative sign in front of it, but you and I both know it wont as our Pollies throw the kitchen sink at what’s coming our way and if nothing else it’ll be the housing sector that gets support.
      I don’t think most Aussies have even began to understand what happens if China completely decouples (except for Iron Ore) in the space of one year.
      It’s something that many MBers prayed for and its fast becoming our reality,
      what can one say …Enjoy!

      • Failed Baby BoomerMEMBER

        Yup, those columns look awfully slender, and I cannot see any fire insulation.
        In fact a reversing car might buckle one!

    • And this government has made so many friends internationally – good thing Trump got reelected 😂

    • Idea is to force China to drop the tariffs. Once that happens China will have two options:
      1. Let Aussie farmers sell to Chinese customers.
      2. Ban Aussie products and start trade war officially.
      But by the time this gets resolved China hopes to get Labour elected and make peece.

      • Or option 3 (which is 1000 times more likely)
        – Claim that our Barley for some reason fails some recently invented quality or biosecurity requirement.

        • They found some barnacles on the hull of the ships bringing it in… oh, and I hope they don’t test it for glyphosate residue….

      • Afraid all I see little old Australia “punching above its weight” and getting completely bitc# slapped back to reality

        • One way of learning all the lessons we’ve avoided for the past 40 years … all in one short year.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          China being China …straya being straya
          …….but no need for surrender …..just back to
          fencing wire ingenuity….and a closed mouth …….

          • Yep that’s where we are headed.
            but how will it end with so many Aussie addicted to the Dragon ride

    • I thought it could have been a bit of reputation management. Can’t have Strayan ag products known for being dumped. Who knows who else might decide to start a trade dispute with us?

      But yeah all it’ll do is to poke the angry bear

      • reputation management
        Hmmm I think we’re beyond that point
        when your biggest customer tells you to GFY
        I’m not sure you have many choices to repair your reputation
        Sticking with the 80’s song references, the Angles posed the question
        “Am I ever Gunna see your face again ”
        And as every Aussie of my generation knows the answer (retort, crowd refrain is)
        “No way Get F’ed F-off”

        • I’m fully aware China views us as the enemy now and that the relationship is fcked forseveral decades at least. I was referring to reputation management for other markets.

    • who cares, consumer confidence is as strong as it has been in the past 7 years.
      Low interest rates and Dan Andrews leadership are doing the trick.
      Journalism is in hysterics about all this china trade stuff, but its small beer compared to say consumption of fast food. How are China going to put a tariff on that?

      • Exactly
        völlig gegen die wand
        I know theres a Chines translation for this German but I can’t find it

    • Is it safe to assume that if iron ore won’t be targeted because of its strategic importance then the student/migration/colonisation trade also won’t be targeted. Safe to assume that if China make no moves on restricting their silent invasion then it is a silent invasion?

      • yea personally I see lots of similarities to the Japanese commercial occupation of Manchuria (South Manchuria Railway Zone)
        It was all fun until it wasn’t fun anymore, when suddenly these Japanese rediscovered their nationalism
        or were they forced by the circumstances to retreat to a nationalist position?
        Did it matter? Does it matter?
        Lots of similarities, that’s all I see

  2. NEW ZEALAND: WHAT IS THIS GOVERNMENT SAYING TO OPPORTUNITY DEPRIVED NEW ZEALANDERS ? …

    … IF YOU ARE NOT A PUBLIC SERVANT OR A PROPERTY SPECULATOR … MOVE TO ASPIRATIONAL AUSTRALIA …

    ANZ says homeowners may need to stomach price drop as Treasury expects prices to soar … Jenna Lynch … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/12/anz-says-homeowners-may-need-to-stomach-price-drop-as-treasury-expects-prices-to-soar.html

    The Kiwi dream of homeownership is getting further out of reach and the meteoric rise in house prices is set to continue. …

    … concluding …

    … (ANZ Bank Senior Economist Liz) Kendall says meaningful change is required from politicians.

    “People are going to have to change their expectations and we need to see a real political will from politicians to make the sort of meaningful policy changes that are necessary to see that happen.”

    It’s a shock of a call, but someone had to say it – house prices are rising at break-neck speed and there is no way that wages are keeping pace.

    Almost as shocking is that a bank put their neck out to tell Kiwis something no politician has had the guts to say. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Access earlier related MB posts …

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/12/links-16-december-2020/#comment-4046853 … and … https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/12/anz-whacks-property-investors/#comment-4046855

  3. Supposedly…
    Ghost Zoom student :joy:
    Google translation of the post
    6:08 “X Almighty Pudding” and the final paper on time? ? ? 〈Return to the main text of Weibo Ten Follow 12-10 00:31 from Weibo weibo.com There was a Chinese student in my class this year, and he died in a car accident in mid-November. The school’s academic affairs office notified the teacher and also sent an email within the school. I was really sad for a long time because we had emails and she often came to my Zoom class (without the camera). However, what happened after that was beyond everyone’s expectations. After the student passed away, he continued to hand in homework, do quizzes, and send emails to all teachers. She handed in my final paper for this course last Monday. I handed in a few extra credits this week. In fact, I probably know what’s going on in my heart, but I didn’t take any action. But the other teachers in our department were terrified. So this matter has been made to the dean of our college, and now the school management knows about it. Then I received an email today, asking me to assist in the investigation and sort out a list of online course hosting websites. . I just learned that in just a few months during the epidemic, this kind of online course hosting industry chain has developed extremely well. One-stop service, as long as the school website account password is given to them, they can guarantee B and A. I don’t know how things will develop this time, but I am in a very complicated mood now. . . After a few moments, I discovered that it was the industry chain of “online course hosting”

  4. Now I know why skippy and stewie love Keynes he was eugenics man lol this has been discounted so many times anyone heard of environmental conditioning this has to be done by the age of 12 who could knowed lol

    • PKE silly and do study the American Eugenics movement, you would be surprised, especially the environmental bit … redwoods say thanks …

    • Mate of mine has used his as evidence on a few road-rage incidents, quite successfully I might add.

      Oh, and a statistically significant proportion of Ford Ranger vehicles are driven by complete and utter wänkërs who should not be allowed to draw breath.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I am sickened by the extreme virus spread that is happening in Sydney. Lock. Us. Down. now ok bloke!!!

    • oh dear.
      I was hoping to read about exports and instead got the whole MMT diatribe.
      Loans precede deposits (007 confusion), government expenditure precedes taxation blah blah blah.

      What *(as always) is totally absent is…. prices.
      Do MMTers realize they are describing a market economy?
      It’s always x leads to y which leads to z. rather than price n solves for x,y & z simultaneously.

      Anyway can you post the article about exports rather than the sci-fi banking one?

      • Depends on what price its denoted in aka seller normally sets the conditions which then becomes a question of what Philip points too. Yet none of that changes that Gov can provision itself whilst supporting basic social goods, but I have bigger issues like how neoliberalism has gutted the U.S. health system in the name of market efficiencies so price could be had for the usual suspects. You also seem to have over looked the comment section and the various conversations which proceed your complaints concerns.

        I shared Philips view back then and even more so now the Tories are burning the village to save it thingy …. shezzz price comes after everything else ….

        • I thought MMT’s starting point was that the permanent condition of capitalism is inadequate demand?

          “but I have bigger issues like how neoliberalism has gutted the U.S. health system in the name of market efficiencies so price could be had for the usual suspects”

          tax havens, Art Laffer, Donald Rumsfeld.

          • This should suffice in answering your tax/price question.

            Samuel Conner
            December 15, 2020 at 8:50 am

            I think that MMT proponents generally regard taxation to be a “later resort”. The overall price level within the economy, within the JG concept, would be controlled (or strongly influenced, at least) by the level at which the JG wage would be set, much as the overall interest rate level is set by the policy rate chosen by the central bank. And this will work because labor is the principal cost component (among the 3 components of land rent, labor and profit) of most goods and services.

            One can certainly object that demand-pull inflation is still possible if large numbers of people develop a strong desire for some scarce resource (or if overconsumption of an abundant resource causes it to become scarce). I don’t think that taxation is needed to curb this kind of inflation — the rising price level itself will curb consumption in this case and thus be self-limiting. Taxation would not have been an appropriate response to the oil-shock price inflation of the ’70s, for example.

            JG controls (to the extant that this mechanism does work, which is not perfectly) the price level by setting a floor on the wage level while providing employment to everyone who wants employment. This mechanism does work (though imperfectly, I concede) because labor is the principal component (of the 3 components land rent, labor, and profit) of the cost of most goods and services.

            I know that you don’t like this government-specified wage-floor feature of the JG, but it needs to be noticed that the JG wage is a policy tool, and could be indexed to overall productivity, which would avoid the divergence — to the detriment of most workers — in median compensation from productivity that has occurred in recent decades.

            JG proponents regard the JG as a superior automatic stabilizer to current approaches to dealing with the consequences of involuntary unemployment. Their arguments look persuasive to me.

            Perhaps there is a perfect solution out there, but it seems to me that JG is more potentially implementable than alternatives.

            Skip here … considering how structural un-under employment has worked … especially from a political football aspect. Demand as you know it is a distribution problem, get the idea you just tax away the MacCrazzy imbalance, but as you know and note those tax havens and Delaware LLC’s thingy make it problematic. Not that the political environment is a poisoned well and it takes heaps more time for any benefit to kick in …