Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Outside local markets its been a tepid end to the trading week with most Asian stock markets looking to close with minor losses going into tonight’s US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is relatively steady at  the $19400 level, while gold has put on more gains, slowly climbing higher to be at $1841 as it struggles to get back to pre-breakdown support at $1860USD per ounce:

The Shanghai Composite is struggling, down 0.4% to 3431 points while in  Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off by nearly 0.2% to 26686 points. Japanese stock markets are still going nowhere with the Nikkei 225 selling off into the close, down 0.3% to 26724 points while the USDJPY pair is struggling to stabilise after its whalloping overnight, currently still below the 104 handle:

The ASX200 continues its advance well above the 6600 point level, up 0.4% to 6642 points while the Australian dollar has retraced slightly from its own overnight advance, but still well above the 74 handle remaining somewhat overstretched:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are quite flat going into the last session of the week with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing some stability after last nights relatively volatile moves:

The economic calendar concludes the week with the most important event of the month – US unemployment aka non-farm payrolls (NFP).

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

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  1. Landlord just accepted our off-market offer on the house. Paid pretty much near the top of their asking range, but repayments are cheaper than rent and mortgage is less than 3x gross income so we’re in a good position. 4/2/2 on 800sqm.

    House up the road in same estate got advertised Wednesday for $50K more than what I’m paying. 3/2/2 on 685sqm. Open tomorrow. Rang out of curiosity and asked if they’d already had an offer – sure enough, yep – pre-open offer at asking price. Nuts. If that’s any indication, our house would have gone for way more than asking if it went to market, so pretty happy with the result.

    • MAGA must be working for the Democrats. Working hard to undermine all the Supreme Court rigging that McConnell has put many years building.
      I don’t know the point where the Republicans cut Trump loose to save themselves … and whether it’s too late for them to do so.
      Trump reminds me of a mob boss … but most mob bosses lose their power in jail, e.g. Capone.
      As for the Supreme Court … expanding it from 9 to 11 would be a temptation, but I think Biden would be wise to leave it alone, as doing anything there encourages the Republicans to get out and vote in 2022. If there is a push to take away rights, then that will bring the Dems out in 2022.
      He needs to be seen to lead the nation in dealing with the pandemic, and deliver working jobs into the US and improve the economy. It’s not long until mid-terms really, so he has to focus really hard on the few things he can get done in that time..

      • If that really is what it is stated to be why aren’t the most bestest lawyers in the whole wide world submitting it as the irrefutable evidence that the most vetted and fact checked of sites , zerohedge, has published?

        Or perhaps, and hear me out here, ZH posted it as click bait to work up their audience so that they would post it elsewhere to attract more eyeballs to their site in order to improve their revenue.

        It’s a tough one. And I ain’t the sharpest sandwich in the lunch box, but I’m going to go with my clickbait theory.

    • If democrats get the senate copper will be selling for $6 p/Oz and gold will be selling for $4k USD p/Oz.

  2. “Rather than seizing thieves and punishing their crimes, it would be better to make the world a place where people did not go hungry or cold. A man without stable means is a man whose heart is unstable. People steal from extremity. There will be no end to crime while the world is not governed well, and men suffer from cold and starvation. It is cruel to make people suffer and drive them to break the law, then treat the poor creatures as criminals.

    As for how to improve people’s lives, there can be no doubt that it would benefit those below if people in high positions were to cease their luxurious and wasteful ways and instead were kind and tender to the people, and encouraged agriculture. The true criminal must be defined as a man who commits a crime though he is as decently fed and clothed as others.”

    Yoshida Kenkō, Essays in Idleness.
    Published 1330.

      • Par for the course really, it’s the core problem of settling for lower paying secure jobs.

        I’m just sad because this is the first job I’ve had in a long time where I can basically do it all myself and haven’t really been upset at all because it’s so easy despite how useless everyone else is (very rare for me not to be upset at work lol). It took some exceptional stupidity to set me off and it all came from people earning nearly double my wage. Such is life.

        Thanks for the thoughts though, they are appreciated.

        • Get a sign for your desk that says (in large, friendly letters) “Go Away!” on one side and “Fckk Off!” on the other.
          Display whichever side suits your mood on those occasions where you have work to do and don’t want to get involved in others’ stupidity.
          (yes, I made one many moons ago when I was contracting at a NSW gov’t department. Used infrequently, I found it most efficacious).

          • @TTW, for “desk”, read “workbench”, “excavator”, “hoist”, “cockpit”, “tractor cab”, “paddock” or whatever contributory work environment you deem appropriate. The principle is the same – tell the idiots to fckoff before they get in your face. Much less likely to land you in gaol than pointing out that the tractor you’re driving may not be fast, but it goes faster than the idiot can run…

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        There’s some tenuous link between Sweden’s COVID approach, death rate, and “I told you so” incoming, I’m sure.

        • I’ve just eaten way too much pasta. My body isn’t sending anything up to brain right now. If it does come it better be laid out in a clear manner with evidence that supports the claims. Like I’m a person interested in learning something yet isn’t interested in solving bad covid 19 conspiracy koans.

      • “viruses can cross oceans”

        funny thing is even the Swedes now admit they screwed up.

        Now the year is drawing to a close I wonder if the virus psychos are pondering their analytical mistakes to be ready to tackle the problems of 2021.

        • Just hoping we lockdown next year and forever more as literally just the flu (the actual just the flu, not COVID) hardly killed any geriatrics this year in Australia. Humanity says we should lockdown forever more. Else you be the virus psycho if you disagree.

          • If lockdown would kill off our “normal” strains of influenza I would agree but due to the avian reservoir we’re doomed to “normal” flu forever*

            *until climate change kills all avian life

          • @ [email protected], given a huge fckoff meteorite failed to kill the avians 65 million years ago, I suspect our slow motion train wreck attempt at destroying the planet’s ecosystems may fail at killing them all too.
            So our successor species will be dealing with #realflu too…

      • Orange chardonnay 2019 and MUSEUM RESERVE SYRAH VERTICAL 6-PACK – as 2019 Orabge Syrah is sold out.

        • Glad to be of assistance. I’m also glad that I can use all that fancy number learning from primary school. The refined taste in wines developed at around fourteen. The development of the frontal lobe ceased at approximately the same time. There were a few years before comments sections where I roamed free. A dark time filled with people and life. Now that I know that it is all a façade that shall crumble when the truth is set free I sit and wait. Well, I lie down and wait. And watch something while browsing the web. And occasionally post comments online. But that is beside the point. For what a bright and glorious future awaits we, the self anointed chosen ones. And surely that’s something worth kind of getting almost 6 hours of sleep a night for. Anyway, don’t divide by 0. Well you can. You just won’t get a defined number. It’s both nothing and everything. Well, nothing is nothing. Because nothing is infinite. It’s an infinite void. Just don’t think about it too much at three in the morning in between wandering what that guy you kind of liked but was a bit too strange to ever be friends with at school is doing now. What do his YouTube holes look like? New idea. Imagine being able to swap YouTube algorithms with people. It’d be a fun adventure into the horror of pointlessness of others. That’s pretty neat. That’s my one idea for 2020 burned. I better not have another one before December 31st otherwise next year will be idea free. Those years are really, really dull.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yes. They are.
            But, thankfully, life/time/hardwork/opportunity/luck/circumstance means they can now be filled with a variety of Australian reds of varying quality. At least until a quantitatively useful thought turns up, randomly and unannounced.

            Additionally, the same passage of time seems to have made life much less excruciating for the younger cohort. At least that’s what my HR division and JJJ would have us believe. There’s some solace/kudos to be taken from that for those a bit older/wiser than those delicate souls.

    • It’s the only way.
      We have to drink our way out of this trade debacle with China.
      Well done.

  3. Evening all

    Trust we are all back from Dan’s and getting into our Friday night specials. I succumbed to the GlenDronach, which is kind of stupid since the garbage takeaway I am eating does not befit it.

    Predicted time to passing out = 180 minutes.

    • You can argue that tech stocks are in a bubble, but stocks related to consumer spending are priced at depression levels still.

  4. Something about how successful we’ve been containing this virus really rankles China.

    They were furious that we closed our borders to China when we did. They were almost insisting we open ourselves up to infections as they spent two months lying about the extent of it.

    The plan was to destroy our economy with this virus, we were supposed to be ravaged like the rest of the west of western world (apart from NZ of course).

    We handled it better than China in the end. No welding people in apartments, no covering up the real numbers, all very transparent.

    We outsmarted them every step of the way.

    • That’s a good point. They are denied the opportunity to spruik the centralised/dictatorship model as the ideal governing model during a pandemic. What they miscalculated is that Australia is a democratic nanny state.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Not every step, but they are sh.tty that unlike most the rest of the western world, Straya did not get sufficiently annihilated financially etc by the virus?


    Dear fking lord … another that cares nothing about how China treats Australia as long as their cash keeps arriving.

    “It’s clear as day that that’s where we need to be working: how to mend the relationship [with China],” Mr Osborne said.
    He contends poor diplomacy on Australia’s part has led to these punishments from China.
    The word ‘sorry’ would be good. I don’t think it’s going to come out. But saying sorry would be a very, very useful way to change the direction.”

    No way should we be apologising for anything

    D’Arenberg Wines…………..

    • The loss of China means a 20-30% cut to sales; staff cuts; and grape and bottle price reductions as product bound for China is returned home likely flooding the market.

      D’Arenberg wines have been trading at a 30-40% premium for the last few years anyway, hope they didn’t blow it all on a giant cube. Much better value elsewhere in the McLaren Vale.