Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

A small rebound in risk appetites here in Asia today despite the mixed messages overnight with most stock markets rising on the chances that more stimulus from the US Congress may actually be on the way (Mad King aside not signing it). Bitcoin is relatively steady below the $19000 level again, while gold has put on more gains above the $1800USD per ounce level following its swing long trade higher, now at $1833 but well off its pre-breakdown highs:

The Shanghai Composite is the only stock market really struggling, down 0.2% to 3442 points while its a much brighter day in  Hong Kong with the Hang Seng Index advancing nearly 0.7% to 26713 points. Japanese stock markets are still going nowhere with the Nikkei 225 barely moving at 26809 points while the USDJPY pair has come back from its near two week high, retracing to the mid 104’s again:

The ASX200 has broken above the 6600 point level, up 0.4% to 6615 points while the Australian dollar is valiantly trying to break back above the 74 handle and its recent session high, but remains somewhat overstretched:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are coming back slightly with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a small gain to the 3660 points level as this market looks overstretched and already pricing in any stimulus coming from Congress:

The economic calendar continues tonight with US initial weekly jobless claims and the non-manufacturing ISM print for November.

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Comments

  1. NEW ZEALAND’s LATEST IPSOS ISSUES POLL: HOUSING LEAPS TO TOP CONCERN … AGAIN …

    … Housing major concern rockets to 53% ( by far worst since 1st poll Feb 2018 !!! ) of New Zealanders … 16% of Australians …

    … Watch the ‘affordability gap’ widen dramatically in Australia’s favour … and aspirational young New Zealander’s flee there in droves …

    The Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor … November 2020 (pdf)

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/12th_ipsos_new_zealand_issues_monitor_nov_2020.pdf

    … and housing hyperinflation sets in … as the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand October Report released mid-November illustrates …

    REINZ Report … Month of October 2020

    https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

    Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 19.8% from $605,000 in October 2019 to a new record median high of $725,000 in October 2020; and up from $689,000 in September this year (a 5.2% lift) according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

      • And very up on Totes, I can’t believe someone can honestly post this stuff, yet it all appears to be genuinely posted and not trolling. So much autofellation:

        “I’ve achieved a whole heap in my life”
        “Whatever I end up doing politically will be considered and devastatingly effective”
        “I am a life long proven achiever”

        So far, in the short time I’ve been on MB Totes has had 3 different names, had 3 failed ideas to “save Australia” but talked a whole lot about it and actually done nothing and the ideas only failed because Totes “decided against it”.

    • There’s an aspect to the deteriorating relationship that I think a lot of people are missing, but they’d only understand it if they’d lived in China. I may post something about it at some stage if I feel like sticking my head above the parapet, but basically the relationship is done for in the short to medium term and there is nothing to do done or said to reverse it (even capitulating and giving the CCP everything they’ve said they want will not save the relationship and would be a disaster of unimaginable proportions). The CCP is obviously trying to destroy as much goodwill that the Chinese people have towards Australia as possible; this has gone beyond anything they’ve done before and is hugely material. We’re being turned into an enemy (which is saying something because we were not one of the evil western countries who caused China’s century of shame). Our dmbfck elites need to wrap their head around this reality now and quit bleating in public. What most people also don’t realise about this is that the CCP has no choice in this matter, their own people, specifically the urban Chinese middle class, have backed them into a corner and forced them into this course of action wrt to Australia. Anyway that is the bare bones of my take of this. It was all horribly foreseeable and inevitable and I at least invested accordingly (so no I did not go long Chinese middle class buying Aussie products stocks cos you never knew when it was going to implode, just that it would at some stage).

      • “What most people also don’t realise about this is that the CCP has no choice in this matter, their own people, specifically the urban Chinese middle class, have backed them into a corner and forced them into this course of action wrt to Australia”

        Why?

      • I’m looking forward to hearing any and all,opinions you might provide.

        Why do you think China hasn’t yet pressured Chinese students to reject Australia if we are being cast as the official enemy of the people ?

      • Shades of MessinaMEMBER

        Would love to read your musings some time PC.

        Perceptions from people who have spent time on the ground are always so much more insightful than those who speculate from afar.

      • I’ve seen comments on Chinese forums (using google translate) indicating that they think we are trivial non entities who deserved to be crushed for our insolence, that Australia belongs to them and that we haven’t realised it yet….is that the sort of thing you’re talking about?

          • Didn’t keep the links… should have. Experiment for yourself using chrome’s built in translation tools to render chinese sites in english. Search with Baidu and use the google translate website to turn your english into chinese. Copy and paste the chinese into Baidu (or google just for fun). I guarantee you’ll find something interesting if you look.