The Federal Budget forecast net overseas migration (NOM) to turn negative for the first time since the Second World War, recording declines of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22, before recovering to 95,900 in 2022-23 and 201,100 in 2023-24:
The ABS’ quarterly population data provided the first evidence of this immigration collapse with NOM declining by 5,900 in the June quarter with NSW (-2,999), VIC (-1,852) and QLD (-1,014) all recording declines:
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In rolling annual terms, NOM was 184,100 in the year to June 2020, down from 241,300 at the same time in 2019:
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However, judging by the monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data, which is current to October, NOM will continue to fall heavily in the period ahead.
