It’s official: immigration has turned negative

The Federal Budget forecast net overseas migration (NOM) to turn negative for the first time since the Second World War, recording declines of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22, before recovering to 95,900 in 2022-23 and 201,100 in 2023-24:

The ABS’ quarterly population data provided the first evidence of this immigration collapse with NOM declining by 5,900 in the June quarter with NSW (-2,999), VIC (-1,852) and QLD (-1,014) all recording declines:

In rolling annual terms, NOM was 184,100 in the year to June 2020, down from 241,300 at the same time in 2019:

However, judging by the monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data, which is current to October, NOM will continue to fall heavily in the period ahead.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

      • When given a choice between
        1. picking berries or fixing blocked sewerage
        and
        2. investing in RE and renting it to temp and perm immigrants
        Regular Mick Skippy will not even blink.
        The sentiment will be the same when RE starts falling after FOMO mob buys houses this spring/summer…
        Most if not all want lesser immigration but when faced between sustainable immigration and falling paper-wealth in assets, the flip to the dark side is guaranteed.
        Immigration level is a tool to prop the RE, not the other way round. It will lower to sustainable level only after the RE speculation is drowned for good

    • Spin up some Adolphe Adam to bring some jocundity to your Yule-time proceedings.

      A heart rending version of Cantique de Noel perhaps.

  1. SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

    Travel restrictions are likely to persist longer than forecast, so there is more downside than upside to the forecasts 20/21 and 21/22. Covid silver linings.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Yep, can see another wave (Covid) as riding past Manly (which was pumping, near glass on independent banks) heaps of non distancing walkers, watchers, groups, etc.. Had a bit of trouble getting home even though the new gear synchronize was a joy to begin with. Trouble started when a step frame was spotted on a throw out which was promptly scabbed by the writer because the bonemans job yesterday needed a pulley change requiring such step to reach. Anyhow the way home was fraught with dangerous object dangling from the hand/bar. This was compounded by the forced testing out of the left shifter being hit, changing the front derailer in the most inopportune moments, especially up the last hill.
      After all that trouble, gave it to old cat to jump to food bowl which was permanently placed high out of reach of you know who, ( a thief dressed in black (RIP)

  2. The Australia that I grew up in and loved ,

    The Australia that my Dad possessed reverence for.

    The Australia that embraced our family after Portugal abandoned her colonial possessions overnight.

    No longer exists.

  3. reusachtigeMEMBER

    This is not good news. The more immigrants the better for everyone due to the wealth effect!

  4. In my view those forecasts are fairly conservative. Real number of departures will be much higher.

    • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

      Lines 10 and 11 of Emma Lazarus 1883 sonnet ‘The New Colossus’ upgraded for 21st century Australia

      “Give me your mediocre, your middle class*, Your marginally skilled masses yearning to remit currency”

      *mid to upper middle class in your unstable/corrupt country of origin preferred

        • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

          OK.
          Upper Class to buy teh houses.
          Middle Class to drive teh trucks and deliver teh food.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            This is really worth a listen. A compare and contrast of Indian and Chinese cultural tropes. An Indian journalist’s view of her time in China:

            https://art19.com/shows/sinica/episodes/dfd899f1-fd4d-47dd-88dc-61df09f2153c

            The thing that stood out, was the description of her Beijing landlord personally fixing the apartment’s plumbing, despite owning a number of apartment buildings and being very wealthy. She points out that it would be unthinkable for the same thing to happen in India.

          • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

            @Arthur. I listened to it while I worked. China and India are dramatically different from each other and they are both very different from Australia. That said, of the two, I feel we can identify many more shared values with India than with China.

          • That said, of the two, I feel we can identify many more shared values with India than with China.

            Certainly true from the example above. Can you imagine an Australian landlord voluntarily fixing anything at all in a rental, let alone personally ? 😀

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            It’s interesting. The Australia I grew up in (80s & 90s) had landlords that fixed their own plumbing, and there a still a few of them around. It was a matter of pride.

            Yet since Howard, and the rise of unearned property wealth (as in the opposite of owning a productive business or selling labor), the level of entitlement has grown unbounded.

            In many ways we were once stoic and self reliant, like the Beijing landlord, and now we have been overtaken by the opposite.

          • @Smithy.

            My recent experience saw the entitled boomer landlord refuse to fix flywire with holes in it, amongst myriad other issues. I’m sure it was a shock for her to have the tenancy ended 7 months early with full bond refund as a result.

    • Labor have already said immigration is the key to economic recovery post covid.

      Economic recovery for their people (union executives, big business, their personal property portfolios, post politics opportunity) that is.

      Remnant Labor voters should be seeking an alternative.

  5. Consider this little piece from the Politburu:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-22/public-health-messaging-crucial-uptake-coronavirus-vaccine/13003366

    Have questions about the COVID-19 vaccine? No, that doesn’t make you an antivaxxer
    “I think it’s OK to seek reasonable and evidence-based sources of information to answer those questions about the COVID vaccine,”
    “Informed choice is very important in this case,” she said.
    “In order for people to take the vaccine, you need to have the right information and be able to make that decision.”

    So, you can question vaccination rationally and that’s OK. Try questioning immigration in the same way and see how much airplay you get. Response from the Politburu:

    Have questions about immigration? No that doesn’t make you a r_cialist

    CENSOR’S NOTE: Whoever turned this in is to be sentenced to 6 months of ‘reeducation’. We do NOT write things like this at the ABC.

    I chose this as a simple contrasting topic to highlight the censors at their worst.

    But wait, there’s more!!

    Because no topic is safe from the ‘multicultural lens’ that fits over the Censorship Hall of Woke at Ultimo.

    So naturally in an article that has nothing to do with the that topic, we are reminded that again of the responsibility of the Australian taxpayer to make migrants feel OK about Government decisions in the country they voluntarily chose to come to.

    Dr Kaufman explained the deep-seated mistrust of governments within some multicultural communities and for that reason, well-known members of multicultural communities needed to be made vaccine ambassadors.

    What, so the ‘well known’ members will be stepping up and doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, or will they need to be paid hefty sums of taxpayer money? I know, shame on me – a trick question so early in the morning

    • You know your spot on.

      Im still waiting for the ABC to pay for me to go to the UK to visit my wifes family and do some interviews with the locals. I know grannies doesn’t have the same ethnic ring to it as a nonna but hey we can’t all be born abroad.

      • The good thing about English is you can find a commonly used British alternative for ‘granny’ such as the Italian sounding ‘nana’

        Either way, much of Sydney and Melbourne by 2050 will more closely resemble Bangalore and Islamabad.

      • The90kwbeastMEMBER

        Looks like you already have a hate comment on your petition!

        Also you should probably add SBS to that list but that’s a harder argument to form.

        • “A publicly funded ABC should not be socially or politically biased.

          It is not fair the ABC is funded by all of us, but only reflects the views of a small minority of Australians.

          Despite numerous reviews of the ABC, I find the ABC to be biased, and want it put to the people of Australia, via plebiscite, for it to either be reformed to more reflect all Australians, or be dismantled.”

          WHAT COULD BE MORE FAIR?

          bitbucket “Yeah, let’s give Sky and Rupert and all the RWNJ media a leg up by getting rid of the ABC!”

          haha. What kind of fool sees a petition asking for an impartial ABC, and writes that? If anything, a non-biased ABC would draw viewers/listeners away from sky etal. Exactly the same rationale has made Labor voters defect to LNP. Very well explained here https://tapri.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Big-Australia-finalV6.pdf

          These people are their own worst enemies. Not smart enough to add 2 and 2. The sad outcome is, they are helping LNP destroy our country.

          We are surrounded by privileged, dumb, lazy people, and the outcome will be dire.

        • Even though a comment that dumb would instill that the ABC is horrifically biased, and I had no problem with it, the comment’s deleted.

          Oh, the power. How’s the bias feel @bit bucket?

          Unfair?

      • LOL. The only comment you’ve drawn is someone worried the ABC is being taken over by the right.

        Which highlights how dumb your idea is. What simple, unambiguous, yes/no or pick-an-option question is this plebiscite going to ask ?

        • “LOL. The only comment you’ve drawn is someone worried the ABC is being taken over by the right.”

          That’s how blind you are.

          “I’m signing this because I pay taxes I don’t want my children to live in a Murdochracy.”

          That comment I believe, more refers to Australians running away from the extreme woke ABC, and ending up watching sky news. Exactly like Australians running away from Labor and ending up voting LNP.

          Either way, the ABC shouldn’t be biased by any measure, left or right. It should reflect the views of broad Australia.

          Are you arguing it shouldn’t?

          “What simple, unambiguous, yes/no or pick-an-option question is this plebiscite going to ask ?”

          How about, something like….”Are you happy with someone like Hamish McDonald earning over $300k a year to destroy your kids futures?”

          The left have lost their minds, and I’m going to fight to save Australia. Sign the petition.

          Big Australia environmental party? Big Australia workers party? You’re a dishonest person Smith.

          • That comment I believe, more refers to Australians running away from the extreme woke ABC, and ending up watching sky news.

            Yep. Sure. That’s the kind of reasoning I’d expect. 😀

            Either way, the ABC shouldn’t be biased by any measure, left or right. It should reflect the views of broad Australia.

            Why would you believe the “views of broad Australia” aren’t “biased” ?

            How about, something like….”Are you happy with someone like Hamish McDonald earning over $300k a year to destroy your kids futures?”

            Right. So, unsurprisingly, nothing useful.

            The whole exercise is, as usual, you projecting your beliefs onto everyone else.

          • “Why would you believe the “views of broad Australia” aren’t “biased” ?”

            That’s a circular question/argument. The views of broad Australia aren’t biased compared to the views of broad Australia now are they smithy?

            I am measuring the bias of the ABC to the views of broad Australia, and I can see an enormous, humongous gap. Confirmed by so so so so many people, some here, MSM comments section, radio, and in all demographics I know.

            Put it to a plebiscite and see. What are you scared of?

            “The whole exercise is, as usual, you projecting your beliefs onto everyone else”

            Not at all. If it gets the signatures, I’ll run with it.

            I can almost smell the bitterness in your prose. You’re upset broad Australia are rejecting your woke BS. Even my lefty wife said yesterday, woke has peaked, people are over it. Greens, Labor and the ABC are finished IMO. Maybe not the Greens so much, but without Labor they’ve got no power to hurt us as much, and it will of course lead to opposition to big Australia from new parties and Independents.

          • That’s a circular question/argument. The views of broad Australia aren’t biased compared to the views of broad Australia now are they smithy?

            LOL. Just sublime.

            Hopefully I don’t need to highlight historical examples of why this sort of lack of “bias” might not produce desirable outcomes.

            I am measuring the bias of the ABC to the views of broad Australia […]

            No.

            You are measuring the “bias” of the ABC against your views and projecting them onto “broad Australia” (whatever the fvck “broad Australia” is supposed to be).

            Confirmed by so so so so many people, some here, MSM comments section, radio, and in all demographics I know.

            Pro tip: “all demographics I know” is not an objective or statistically valid sample. Neither are hilariously self-selective sources like “MSM comments sections” or “radio”.

            Put it to a plebiscite and see. What are you scared of?

            LOL. I’m actually aware of what a plebiscite does (nothing binding and nothing that can’t be discovered from a properly structured poll) and the kinds of questions they need to ask (very simple and direct with unambiguous, clearly actionable and useful yes/no or pick-an-option answers).

            I am quite confident you won’t be able to come up with anything that comes even close to that.

            (In case it’s not obvious, “Should the ABC be unbiased?” is not a good question.)

          • “LOL. Just sublime.”

            You want to measure bias some other way? Who could have guessed when it doesn’t fit your views, it must be wrong. You are the epitome of the leftists Australia has begun to entirely reject.

            “Should the ABC be unbiased?”

            Hey, that’s a good question. I’ll use that.

            ““all demographics I know””

            ….that’s what makes a plebiscite such a great idea. No bias, just reflecting the views of the people paying for it.

          • Hey, that’s a good question. I’ll use that.

            It’s a terrible question.

            Two people could both honestly and genuinely answer “yes” with completely opposite ideas of both the “problem” and the “solution” in their heads.

            Consequently, the results would be useless.

  6. Arthur Schopenhauer

    A full lane of parking is being taken out of Heidelberg Road for separated bike lanes. Politically impossible before Covid.

  7. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    I was at a work diner last night and got talking to a guy who works at the dept of immigration, approving 457 visas. He said Chinese applications have fallen off a cliff and they are hoping the post-COVID gap will be filled by Indians, Iranians, South Africans.

    • The90kwbeastMEMBER

      Hopefully the guy you were talking to runs out of work entirely and can be redeployed to approving visas that aren’t primarily used to screw over Australians.

    • Damn, the problem is they think there is a gap that needs filling, even with such high un/underemployment!
      The only gap that needs filling is the productivity gap!
      (Sure a little immigration can help this but certainly not the excessive immigration of low skilled from those countries, or any other)

    • Have you got a Fk off we’re full (y sick) sticker on your Tickfordly Tweaked Maloo ute Chris?
      That’d be funny as.

      In the Norther Rivers we’re more Bris than Syd anyway. I even wish we had no daylight savings, FFS. Just move the clocks forward 30 mins from AEST and leave them there. The cows, curtains and school kids will survive.

    • I wish. I’m a middle aged dad with two kids and a big dog, ergo I have a sh%tbox.
      And yeah the daylight savings suck because I have to get attuned to Melbourne time, plus London and US when they swap and change (and its never the same week!)

      • Lift your gaze, old boy!

        A sick Ranger Avalanche with tinter windows and Mickey Thompsons AND the stickers. Don’t forget the Southern Cross, co-opted into jingoistic misadventure.

  8. I’d like the propose three cheers for COVID-19, for turning this little titbit statistic in the right direction.

    Sure it took the worst global pandemic in the history of mankind to effect change, but change in the case is what most Aussies want.

    #ThanksCOVID
    #LazyGrowth no more! Jingle bells