Australian dollar falls as markets boom

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DXY was up Friday night:

The Australian dollar fell:

Gold eased, oil rose:

Metals are ripping. Copper is fast heading for record highs:

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There’s a new mining boom:

EM stocks are readying for record highs:

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Junk is fine:

Yields lifted:

Stocks flew:

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The US virus has broken out again though it has slowed

The economic damage is now obvious as the job recovery stalls:

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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade.

…In November, the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. The rate is down by 8.0 percentage points from its recent high in April but is 3.2 percentage points higher than it was in February. The number of unemployed persons, at 10.7 million, continued to trend down in November but is 4.9 million higher than in February.

…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 39,000, from +672,000 to +711,000, and the change for October was revised down by 28,000, from +638,000 to +610,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined was 11,000 more than previously reported.

There is nothing that market likes more though yields were a little upset that a new stimulus package is increasingly likely coming to the tune of $900bn. Jobs are fading:

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And wages growth is falling once you adjust for virus distortions:

It’s a terrible mess but the market is confidently looking across the valley to what is increasingly being seen, rightly in my view, as a rude profits boom ahead:

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The Australian dollar is going up!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.