Aussie mortgage growth launches

The RBA has released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of November, which continued the strong rebound in mortgage growth.

A chart plotting the long-run time series is shown below:

Annual mortgage growth continues to trend higher, but remains low overall at just 3.4%.

However, quarterly mortgage growth has rebounded hard, climbing for three consecutive months:

As shown below, quarterly mortgage growth is being driven by owner-occupiers; although investors have also rebounded:

Another positive indicator for the Australian property market.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. Jumping jack flash

    Faster debt growth is clearly required if they’re going to save the economy.

    But all is not lost yet. If I’m correct, then over the next few months until March/April 2021 and maybe even a little bit after, we will see most of the ~36 billion of super withdrawals leveraged into new, gargantuan mortgages.

    Up to 40K of super money per household should be enough for many to unlock the correct amounts of debt. The problem for many isn’t the price of the debt, debt has never been cheaper. Personally I can obtain 40% more debt right now than what I could when I was earning 15% more wages than I earn today. The problem for many is the minimum 5% ponzi buy-in fee which can now be covered by the super release, and grant many new lucky people access to the debt they desperately need.

    And hopefully this is enough to restart the debt engine of the New Economy:
    If the debt grows at the correct rate a tidal wave of debt flows through the economy, then prices will be able to rise again, allowing wages to rise again, and then enabling more debt to be obtained without our economic masters needing to resort to more “funny business” like lowering rates even further, and/or actions that have the equivalent effect of that.

    Will the New Economy launch into another golden age of debt, or will the debt growth falter and the economy return to the slow melt recipe of wage theft and high immigration, until nothing but banks and the providers of essential goods and services remain?