Why is your ABC pushing China agent of influence, Geoff Raby?

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Former ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, is a registered agent of foreign influence for Yancoal, a Chinese state-owned enterprise:

Yet, this morning, Dr Raby appeared at the ABC without reference to this compromising fact as he told Fran Kelly that:

  • we are inextricably bound to China;
  • China is no existential threat to Australia, and ironically…
  • China has no soft power capacity as Mr Raby croons on its behalf.
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Geoff Raby may be inextrincably bound to China but Australia is NOT. The vast majority of Australian exports to China are commodities. If China stops buying Aussie commodities then it must buy them elsewhere. That swing in demand opens new deficits in supply elsewhere that Australia can fill.

That is, Australian commodities will get shipped regardless of whether China buys them or not, so long as its demand does not exit the global economy. This process is already underway in such markets as barley and coal. There is an adjustment process but it is quite manageable, and the Australian economy can weather much lower Chinese exports without lasting harm.

Moreover, this indicates that Australia has a lot more wriggle room in dealing with China than Mr Raby makes out. Even to the point of choosing to entirely decouple if we so wish.

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It is unacceptable bias in the national broadcaster that Mr Raby is interviewed on such a crucial topic without his own interests being made plain to listeners, nor there being any countervailing view.

I have put myself forward to Fran Kelly as just that and await a response. The correspondence is below:

To whom it may concern,

My name is David Llewellyn-Smith. I am an economist at MacroBusiness and write about Chinese relations every day. I am also Chief Strategist at Nucleus Wealth, an independent fund manager.

Previously, I was the founding publisher and global economy editor at The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. And an economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, ABC and Business Spectator, as well as co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Professor Ross Garnaut plus editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

This morning Fran Kelly interviewed Geoff Raby on the state of China/Australia relations. The interview never mentioned that Mr Raby is a registered agent of foreign influence for Yancoal, a major Chinese state-owned enterprise: https://transparency.ag.gov.au/Registrants/Details/fb03987a-5144-e911-8120-0050569d2348

Nor did it mention that Geoff Raby Associates works for just about everyone engaged in Chinese commerce: http://www.geoffraby.com/customers/index.html

These are important facts that influence how listeners should perceive Mr Raby’s views. He has financial interests in the debate that colour his pedigree as former ambassador.

Mr Raby contends that Australia and China are inexorably and inevitably intertwined economically. This is bad geopolitics and weak economics.

The vast majority of Australian exports to China are commodities. If China stops buying Aussie commodities then it must buy them elsewhere. That swing in demand opens new deficits in supply elsewhere that Australia can fill.

That is, Australian commodities will get shipped regardless of whether China buys them or not, so long as its demand does not exit the global economy. This process is already underway in such markets as barley and coal. There is an adjustment period but it is quite manageable for the Australian economy to weather considerably lower Chinese exports.

Moreover, this indicates that Australia has a lot more wriggle room in dealing with China than Mr Raby makes out. Even to the point of choosing to entirely decouple if we so wish.

I would like to put myself forward for an interview with Fran Kelly to rebut the views of Mr Raby.

Please respond urgently. Thanks and regards,

David

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.