Why did the OneNation vote collapse to Labor in QLD?

Via Crikey:

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was decimated at the Queensland election, but it’s where those votes now sit that holds a clue for the federal campaigns of both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese.

Morrison knows Queensland helped hand him victory last time round, in the same way Anthony Albanese knows he must win back a swag of seats in the north if he’s to take the treasury benches.

Just consider this: there is not one Labor seat north of the Brisbane River to the tip of Cape York. It’s a sea of Morrison blue. At the moment.

But what happened on October 31 was not just an historic third term victory for Annastacia Palaszczuk and her Labor team. It also showcased the waning influence of Pauline Hanson in the state that made her famous.

At its zenith, One Nation boasted 11 seats in the legislative assembly, and recorded 23% of the vote.

Despite running 90 candidates this time around, it boasts only one MP, holding onto the seat of Mirani. More crucially, it copped a 7% swing against it across the state, raising real doubts about whether it can play any substantial party political role going forward.

But here’s the thing: while it’s readily labelled a right-wing party, that only tells half the story. One Nation supporters have shown no real monogamy in terms of voting allegiance. Some of its members want the conservatives to be more conservative, but just as many others believe big government — Labor and Liberal — has lost its way and One Nation has been the noisy chihuahua to nip at its heels.

Once upon a time, the party’s preferences favoured the conservative side of politics, but there are just as many examples — perhaps more — of that not being the case. And on October 31, Palaszczuk’s strong border stance brought One Nation voters back to the Labor fold.

That now means those votes are up for grabs federally, in a move that will almost certainly set the tone, some of the policies, and a chunk of the campaign strategy, for both federal parties.

Just consider these results. The electorate of Pumicestone (previously Caboolture) was owned by One Nation in 1998, but went into last month’s election with a marginal LNP buffer. When the dust settled, support for One Nation had plummeted more than 15%, with Labor picking up 10.6% on its way to victory.

Not far up the road, in Hervey Bay, where borders were just as significant an issue, One Nation voters came back to Labor too, helping to deliver a 10.5% bounce in the vote.

Meanwhile in Caloundra, the swing against One Nation was more than 16%, with Labor increasing it’s vote by 12.6%.

But this doesn’t mean things are rosy for Albanese. In north Queensland, and the seat of Hinchinbrook, the story was very different. The first preference swing against One Nation was almost 15%, but the big beneficiary was Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) MP Nick Dametto, whose vote jumped almost 21.6%.

The takeaway? One Nation voters will go home with the person they think will love them the most; the party that makes them feel “safe”. And despite Annastacia Palaszczuk securing their support this time around, there’s no guarantee they’ll be an easy dance partner at the federal level.

Despite the patronising tone, this is the most important piece for federal politics I have read in a year.

ON voters are not exercised by climate change as Joel Fitzgibbon and his Murdoch mates are currently suggesting. It is borders that matter to ON. State borders and, and even more so, national borders.

It’s globalisation in all of its forms that ON voters despise: immigration, progressives, free trade, foreign investment, you name it. ON voters want their country back and they will vote for whoever offers it to them.

As we’ve argued for years now, Labor should do so by slashing immigration in the national interest. That would be the end of ON in QLD and Labor would win power and be able to do whatever it liked with climate change.

At least, it might have done in the past. Given its China problem today that may no longer be enough.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Hanson wanted to open the state borders. That’s what wrecked her.

      Don’t expect it to be replicated federally unless Labor drop support for immigration.

      What DLS has said above is spot on. Labor should drop support for immigration, globalisation, get into government and address CC. Added bonus is the end of ON.

      The entire future of Australia rests with what Labor does. Labor voters can no longer pretend this isn’t Labor’s fault.

      • “The entire future of Australia rests with what Labor does”

        Ah, yes. That’s exactly what I said just before the very recent New Zealand elections, and Labour did get in; it would have done even on a FPP election (we have MMP); more than 50% of the total votes and seats, and now what? Sense and Salvation? Nope……. It looks like they are about to do nothing at all. Certainly nothing along the lines that DLS writes, and certainly nothing along the lines of correcting the massive social and economic damage cause by too much debt and the ludicrously high cost of putting a roof over what workers there are left here.
        Labo(u)r = Do nothing except plan to get reelected to do nothing again.

          • “We need a new machine made up of many parts, all nervous to keep their place.”
            This is exactly what the current parties are. Why do you think all the former politicians become so much more outspoken after leaving politics? Even daring to be mildly outspoken about the given narrative while within politics and you are gooooooooooooooone.

          • The90kwbeastMEMBER

            I think the pressure to survive means no-one wants to take any larger political risks and have it backfire. In other words Lab/Lib are really quite risk adverse in terms of the policies on offer. Shorten stuck his neck out, and look what happened to him.

            Better to just have a couple of main points of difference, that if you spin it right, doesn’t really achieve anything, but support the feels. Then align the rest of your policies to whatever the other guys are doing and hey presto, you have a ‘democracy’ but really both parties represent the same thing.

            Its the same issue in the corporate world, you would think it would be a bastion of capitalism, but at least in my company, middle management never want to stick their neck out and try something that could backfire and be attributed to them. So its just easier to roll with the least risk option that fixes something now regardless of long term detriment.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            “This is exactly what the current parties are”

            No. What the current parties are is corrupt.

            Independents who form voting alliances (a party) wouldn’t be voted in by a smart country.

            Replace them with the next Independent waiting for generous pay, pension and privilege.

            You spend a lot of energy defending the Labor party for someone who “doesn’t defend the Labor party”.

          • “Its the same issue in the corporate world, you would think it would be a bastion of capitalism, but at least in my company, middle management never want to stick their neck out and try something that could backfire and be attributed to them. So its just easier to roll with the least risk option that fixes something now regardless of long term detriment.”
            Capitalism only provides a profit motivation to the owners of the capital. A wage earner sees no benefit if they increase profitability of their company, so why take the risk when you don’t receive the benefit.

            And @totes
            “Replace them with the next Independent waiting for generous pay, pension and privilege.”
            The generous pay and privilege come from being within a party not parliament.
            An independent unlikely to hold a seat for decades doesn’t see much benefit, while also destroying their previous career.
            To obtain the pension they need long term preselection to a safe seat, something that simply doesn’t exist for an independent.

            Given your clear hatred of the ALP why aren’t you running for parliament against them with the added incentive of all the benefits you are talking about??????

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            “An independent unlikely to hold a seat for decades doesn’t see much benefit”

            Holdit foreverif they do the right thing.

            “Given your clear hatred of the ALP why aren’t you running for parliament against them with the added incentive of all the benefits you are talking about??????”

            Only an idiot would become a politician in Australia. Australians deserve to lose the country.

          • kierans777MEMBER

            >> Only an idiot would become a politician in Australia. Australians deserve to lose the country.
            > Sounds like you and people like you are the problem totes, not labor.

            Hear, hear. TotesBeWantingToWatchEverythingBurn

            I’m not defending the ALP, it’s cosiness with China, or it’s stupid obsession with Big Australia, but if you don’t want to be part of the solution then shut up, and get out of the way (the country boy in me would have said it a lot differently but my mum might read this one day 😂).

            Watching and rubbing your hands in righteous glee as the country turns into Elysium (the movie that is) is not a solution.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            kierans777

            Australia deserves what’s coming. That doesn’t mean I won’t fight to prevent it.

            You want to riot? I’ll be there with you.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        PH and ON should never have joined with the Coalition. They should have aimed to become the Opposition Party, by forcing LAB and the Coalition to work together, and exposing them both for what they are – sell outs to Australia and Australians.

          • kierans777MEMBER

            PH, like a lot of the country gets bamboozled by the bovine mature from the “better economic managers”. Or bought off.

            It was after I learned economics that I stopped voting Liberal (that and my then local member is a lying scumbag)

    • They have not had the balance of power.
      Thus they have not had the power to prize the most closely held conviction of the Greens/Labor/Liberal parties out of their hands… their bipartisan support for the policy of mass immigration, and through that the destruction of Australia as it was (is).

      Given the major cross party support for mass immigration the only way it will be through an anti-immigration party winning the majority of seats, or a change of heart of one of the existing parties (perhaps a Trump like take over of a party from within).
      Thus the logic in continuing to first preference parties like One Nation, to keep awareness amongst the parties that there would be political capital to make from adopting a harder immigration stand.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        There have been times Hanson could have blocked legislation in the senate and didn’t.

        She has had the opportunity to put immigration firmly on the table.

        • kierans777MEMBER

          Indeed. But sadly old Pauline always frames the immigration debate in racist terms and thus instantly any rational discussion on the subject has all the political oxygen burned away.

          • greedypuppyMEMBER

            she has the media skill of a deranged lunatic …on a good day-the few times i’ve heard her explain her back tracking or view of the world I’m forced to believe that perhaps free education has done more harm than good

  1. “It is borders that matter to ON. State borders and, and even more so, national borders.”

    Yep. If the federal Labor mob don’t clock that then they’re more stupid than they look.

    • Federal Labor behave in a manner that seems profoundly stupid, and it’s easy to think they’re just very dim bulbs. I often wonder though, what percentage of their apparent idiocy is just idiocy, and how much is caused by corruption? For example, do they favour mass Chinese immigration because they’re stupid/woke (but I repeat myself) or is it because they’re owned by the CCP?

      • Fair point and I do wonder the same. I like to think ‘dim’, only because it’s far less sinister than the wilful sale of the country to bad elements. If it’s the latter we should all be seriously concerned and one can only hope that justice is served on those traitors.

      • The federal ALP benches are made up of careerist hacks and pretty much all of their remaining ‘safe seats’ have been ‘branch stacked’. No careerist Labor MP is going to go against the Big Australia, pro immigration narrative as it would mean immediate de-selection. Hanson is a fraud who exposed herself as a Murdoch lackey in calling for QLD to re-open its borders. Hopefully Katter’s party can politically terminate One Nation.

  2. I guess, once the immigration is supercharged again thanks to vaccines and pro-china trade/influence policies re-implemented thanks to Oz losing US support (after Biden election), ON will be back.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Look at the Labor MPs. Sons & daughters of former MPs, or middle class people who have risen from working and middle class families through a University education, usually in Law or Education.

    They belong to the class of people who have gained the most from globalism, and they are many miles from working class the Labor party formerly represented.

    • Maybe the labor party claimed to represent them, but it was never made up of them. Working class people don’t tend to end up in parliament, even in the so called workers party for various reasons.

  4. “ON voters want their country back and they will vote for whoever offers it to them.” And what if no one offers it?
    Quite frankly I am getting sick of asking nicely. I am getting to the point where I wont wait for a party to offer it as a voting platform, but instead fall in behind someone who proposes that we take it back by force.
    It’s not the internet that is radicalizing people, it is the state sponsored invasion of our countries. How Orwellian have things gotten when the Overton window has shifted so far to the left that opposing an elite decreed government sponsored and run invasion makes you “far right”.

      • Australia’s Overton Window is firmly planted on the centre right as both the LNP and ALP worship ‘free markets’, not socialism or anything approaching it.

        The ‘immigrant invasion’ you refer to is a neoliberal, centre right policy designed to drive down the cost of labour and increase the wealth of landowners.

  5. Caboolture was always labor but last time their candidate was a thief
    Caloundra full of retirees who want closed borders, ditto Hervey bay
    Central qld trust state labor with coal unlike the feds.
    Rest of the state think they managed covid ok
    No much rocket science involved

  6. ON votes collapsed because Annastacia Pałaszczuk made a deal on Adani which was much much smaller then the original one proposed. Pragmatic to keep FNQ in the circle.

    I wish I stayed in SE QLD after I was stood down, but I took the first opportunity to come back o Melbourne. WA/SA/QLD local governments are ahead of the curve then VIC/NSW.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Economic power can pollute the debate, it can infiltrate parties and individuals, MSM, fund campaigns etc etc etc, but voters decide who wins. It’s as simple as that.

      • Actually voters get to pick between a very small selection of people who have been pre selected by the faceless people in the shadows. They are the people who choose who runs the country.

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