Victorian ALP roars ahead of Liberal empty chair

16 weeks of hard lockdown and 800 COVID-19 deaths has done little to dampen Victorian voters’ love for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Australian Labor Party (ALP), which has soared ahead in the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll:

ALP two-party support has jumped 7% to 58.5% after the end of Victoria’s nearly four-month lockdown compared to the L-NP on 41.5% according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday and on Monday.

The Roy Morgan survey also found 71% of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, up 12% since mid-October while 29% disapprove, down 12%.

ALP primary support jumps, L-NP support slumps

Primary support for the ALP is now at 45%, up 5% points from four weeks ago and well ahead of the L-NP on 34.5%, down 5.5% points.

Support for the Greens is up slightly to 11% (up 2% points) while support for Other Parties is down 0.5% to 5.5%. A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 1% point.

ALP holds massive two-party preferred lead in Melbourne and amongst women

The ending of the lockdown has seen the ALP’s lead strengthen significantly among key demographic groups since mid-October with Melburnians now supporting the ALP 62% (up 8.5%) cf. L-NP (38%, down 8.5%).

Country Victorians have also swung behind the Andrews Government with the ALP on 52% (up 5.5%) compared to the L-NP on 48% (down 5.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Women have swung strongly in favour of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 62.5% (up 9.5%) cf. L-NP 37.5% (down 9.5%). Men are also now in support of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support for the ALP 54% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 4%).

Women and young people give highest marks for Premier Andrews’ handling of his job

Nearly three-quarters of women (74%) approve of the Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job as Premier, up 11% points from mid-October, compared to 69% (up 14%) of men.

Approval for the Premier’s handling of his job as Premier is correlated to age with younger people giving the Premier the highest job approval. However, the biggest increases in job approval compared to mid-October are from older Victorians. Now over three-quarters of people aged under 35 (78%, up 5%) approve compared to 71% (up 9%) aged 35-49, 69% (up 14%) aged 50-64 and 64% (up 22%) of those aged 65+ years old.

A large and increasing majority of 82% (up 11%) of ALP supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens supporters (90%, unchanged), now approve of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job.

A sizeable minority of L-NP supporters, 40% (up 9%) now approve of the Premier’s handling of his job and two-thirds of supporters of Independents/Others 67% (up 8%).

This says more about the uselessness of the Victorian L-NP. Liberal leader Michael O’Brien is both inept and largely unknown. Is there any talent within the party? Or will Victoria effectively remain a one-party state?

Unconventional Economist

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