Trump polling surges as he readies coup

He’s on a roll nationally:

Especially in the battleground states:

Trump’s crucial wins in Florida and Pennsylvania have tightened:


Betting is unmoved:

Probably sensibly.

But if you’re looking for a clean result then El Trumpo will disappoint, at Axios:

President Trump has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he’s “ahead,” according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That’s even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

The latest: Speaking to reporters on Sunday evening, Trump denied that he would declare victory prematurely, before adding, “I think it’s a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it’s a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over.”

  • He continued: “I think it’s terrible that we can’t know the results of an election the night of the election. … We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers.”
  • “We don’t want to have Pennsylvania, where you have a political governor, a very partisan guy. … We don’t want to be in a position where he’s allowed, every day, to watch ballots come in. See if we can only find 10,000 more ballots.”

Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

  • For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

But there was another court win for the Dems, at Bloomie:

A federal judge rejected a bid by Republican activists to invalidate 127,000 votes in the most populous county in Texas.

“For lack of a nicer way of saying it, I ain’t buying it,” U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen said at a hearing Monday in Houston, rejecting the request by the Republicans because they lacked standing to bring the case to begin with.

The hearing in federal court took place one day after the state’s Supreme Court denied the effort to reject votes that were cast using drive-through voting in the county.

Get set for much more of this as the coup is unleashed.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. There must be an army of people in the US who will vote for Trump that are not willing to voice their support because they’re genuinely embarrassed by having to vote for him, for whatever reason. This shouldn’t be surprising given he’s a miserable human, and in this sick (literally) post-truth world, many people will not be honest when questioned or during discussions with others, as their own moral standards mirror that of their leaders.

    • @Geordie you have it backwards. Leaders reflect the people, and yes they are all flawed. We know that.
      As you point out – in a post-truth society – that’s why calling out Trump to some standard falls on deaf ears. Plus the obvious, why call out only Trump, but not call out 47 year career swampy pollie Biden. Or HR Clinton. It is just hypocrisy.
      Especially after how cleanskins (as of now) McCain and Romney were treated as candidates in 2008 and 2012.

      • No, I do not have it backwards. The old saying “A fish rots from the head” hits the nail on the head. It is one really rotten head. By discussing Trump and the potential for a greater turn out for him I’m not lending support for any other candidate; it’s just an observation regarding the very divisive leader that is Trump.

        The two-party gig the US has going on is toxic for the nation, its people and for democracy globally. You only need one failed-but-once-great democratic state for theocracies and dictatorships worldwide to no have a reason to yell, “See! It’s fundamentally flawed and we cannot trust them or any other like them!” and we go off down a very dark hole.

        I don’t want to see a world war – ever – and I don’t want my grandkids to, either. Yes, that is how far I think this has the possibility to go, and quickly.

        • Short memory. US was very divided in 2016 following Obama’s leadership which made racial divisions ahead of 2012 re-election. The MSM’s debased endorsement of Obama’s allegations and his mistrust of police was a key driver that led to ordinary folks in flyover states voting in Trump as a disruptor.
          Your fish analogy is nice but doesnt hold up. Individuals make up the society – not the other way round. Top down is an authoritarian ideal.
          Also I’d say post truth means rotting at both ends – brain and heart. No reason. No values.
          Also glad you dont want to see war, and presume this means people should not be harmed whoever they vote for. I take it you support the right of people to disagree and enjoy free speech.

    • That goes both ways, there are possibly a lot of people in republican strong holds that are to scared to admit publicly they will be voting democrat…

      • Fair call, but typically more extreme the position the less willing people are to be honest about it. Thus, I feel it more likely that this will benefit Trump than Biden.

    • C Diminished Chord

      For 2,000 years people have been fearing for their life to speak out about science, heliocentric galaxy and the delusion that is Judeo-Christian religiosity. To this day you will can be beheaded for Islamophobia as the “progressive”left calls it in the most secular of European countries – France.

      People are regularly being shot, cities burned by rabid leftists – Cisco fired ANYONE who questioned the left wings critical race theory “change management” Zoom sessions.

      Trump has ended wars, ended Democrats open border policy with the Cartel controlled southern nations, repatriating middle class jobs and work from China and demanding an end to the extreme racist politics of critical race theory in US curriculum and state institutions.

      Of course you hate him. Of course people are silent. Instead of dismantling the entire heritage of western enlightenment and all of modernity in favour of the emotive, feel good vibes of Islam and all the conquored nations of history – he is instead saying the most vile thing anyone could ever say to a leftist – “all lives matter” – which as it turns out was a 4chan joke to prove just how incredibly racist the left was.

      And it worked life an absolute charm.

      You have no idea what you are even talking about – none.

  2. rob barrattMEMBER

    And it’s Narcolepsy leading by a short head from Narcissist coming strongly on the far right. Meanwhile, the course is becoming flooded by a huge downpour of lawyers threatening the result. Antifa-post betting has strongly favored Narcolepsy, a Ukraine-trained horse with no previous form.
    It’s going to be an explosive finish Ladies & Gentlemen!

  3. Just when you’re about to resubscribe the otherwise excellent MB pumps out a headline like this.

    Think I’ll reassess after the election…..unless the boys are still indulging in TDS.

  4. My prediction is Trump will win Florida but loses Pennsylvania. As the law does not allow for votes to be counted until election day in Pennsylvania, so expect a lawsuit to stop vote counting on November 4th.

    The nightmare scenario for the US is the two candidates only differ by a few hundred votes. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court have ruled that ballots postmarked by election day but received up to 3 days later should be counted. If the US Supreme Court ignore common sense and overturn this to achieve a Trump victory, the Democrats will not ‘go gentle into that good night’ like in Bush vs Gore. Expect all out civil war.

    • I’m totally expecting Flo Rida to go for Trump . North Carolina and possibly even Georgia have a better chance of going for the Dems. Keep in mind that North Carolina has a Dem governor there already so reduces the chance for any funny business.

      Biden wins either North Carolina or Georgia – its pretty much game over for Trumpy.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Think a lot of “quiet Americans “will hold their nose and vote trump . If only to smash the China (pun )
    They know the country is in trouble so what the hell ..
    This might be closer than the polls are saying

    • Biden also has Lady Gogog and a bunch of other celebrity cretins campaigning for him.

      Meanwhile, the Investor’s Business Daily national tracking poll on Friday found Trump winning the national Hispanic vote with 50 percent.

      • The Hispanics are not too socialist, not fan of gangs and they know that along with whites and asians, they would be at the receiving end of the Dems ‘ Mad identity politic.

  6. “There must be an army of people in the US who will vote for Trump that are not willing to voice their support because they’re genuinely embarrassed by having to vote for him, for whatever reason. ”

    There are a few reasons:

    1. Culturally Americans have always been shy when it comes to talk of who they vote for.
    2. They don’t want to be harassed or fired at work or doxxed for “holding the wrong viewpoint”

    The reality is that this blog is talking about a coup by Trump, like he is some type of authoritarian. Who are the real authoritarians? Trump, or the media in the Dems pockets who are actively censoring articles (Twitter, Glenn Greenwald at the Intercepts etc.). Or the Dems who encourage people to harass/cancel/doxx others for not agreeing with their political viewpoint. It isn’t Trump telling people they aren’t black, or “reminding” people they are if they vote for him. Look at how the so called media and “black community” treat any public figure who happens to be black that says they support Trump. Then they call Republicans and Trump racists?

    • Cambridge Analytica was dirty. The Dems are also fighting dirty with the censorship. News flash – they’re both evil.

    • Buildings across the US are being boarded up due to fears of violence and rioting on election night. And no, they’re not worried about Trump supporters.

        • They are happy enough with the status quo – of course largely law-abiding…

          But…take away what a Nationalist thought they had, or give them more of what they want – ah, there’s the rub…

          • Houston is almost split in the middle. It is getting a very Democrat flavour as the mobile flee LA, San Fran etc. and bring their polcieis to these cities. The VAST majority of rioting and looting are Dem run cities by Democratic alliance members, BLM and Antifa. As are places like Baltimore, Chicago and Philadelphia, where there is alot of black on black crime, and plenty of talk of systemic racism, yet the mayors, city council members, police chiefs etc. are mostly black.

            This tweet from Larry Elder sums it up with respect to Freddie Gray death in Baltimore:

            POTUS: black
            U.S. AG: black
            Baltimore Mayor: black
            City Council: mostly black
            PD Head: black
            Asst PD Head: black
            St. Atty: black
            3 of 6 cops charged: black
            Judge who 2x ruled not guilty: black

            The people who control the actual “system” are all Dem or black, yet it is systemically racist? It is the same in Minneapolis.

          • Great. Vast majority it is but not all. And we know that this looting is generally happening in denser, urban cities which also lean Democrat. They also happen to be the party not in power, which is no coincidence.

      • And no, they’re not worried about Trump supporters.

        I imagine they’re worried about rioters.

      • We should also tell the truth about which party raised funds to bail out rioters in cities like Seattle and Portland. Was it the Republicans?

    • The Primary Model has worked for 25/27 elections. It is predicting a 91% chance of a Trump win (in a landslide as the base case).
      The Democracy Institute predicted Trump 2016 and Brexit. They are predicting a Trump landslide win.
      Trafalgar is also predicting a Trump landslide win. They correctly predicted Trump winning the rust-belt states in 2016.
      Relying on fake polls and fake news media (as MB does) leads to wrong conclusions.
      A Trump win makes sense for anyone who understands what is happening in the U.S.

    • China and Russia must be absolutely loving it – an increasingly lame, self-focused USA is exactly what their dreams are made of….they just to…do almost nothing…

      What if we put the football team in charge of….the USA?

      Trumpollini for Class President!

  7. Unsubstantiated rumours circulating as fact :

    1/ Biden is way in front – Polls ….lol.
    2/ Democrats are more likely to absentee vote. -The same modelling used by the polls…
    3/ Only the GOP would host civil unrest . – Ten years of Tea Party protests and not a hint of violence, four years of DTS and thousands injured , billions in damages and a destabilised society.
    4/ Only the GOP would stage a coup . – Biden’s campaign manager just tweeted that Trump declaring on election night will be refused REGARDLESS of circumstances.

    • 4 – Makes complete sense given Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania wouldn’t have finished counting by then. They are only able to start counting their early votes on election day! Why would anyone concede when votes have not been counted?

  8. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Tomorrow is going to be a flaming bag of crap inside a waste bin inside a dumpster fire inside a burnt-out van inside a nuclear reactor.
    I’ll be watching like a moth.

  9. Of the 16 americans , who are in my social circle or work colleagues, 13 Trump supporters, 3 Biden , heavily skewed white male , of the A.A s 1 trump, 1 biden only 2 mexican /american both trump supporters.

  10. What I love so much about Trump is all the people I distrust the most for myriad of other reasons hate him so much.

        • To your many earlier points about the lack of differences between Lib-Lab, democracy here and the US is an illusion. Elections are theatre designed to distract us from the complete failure of the political classes to represent the prols – at all.

    • Idk. I imagine it is nice simple world they live in where US Presidential election is a one-sided judgment on the incumbent’s personality, his historic indiscretions and very public expression of his frustrations.
      Makes no sense for the leader of US. But the simplicity of it is nice.

  11. MB readerMEMBER

    What’s that academic, who correctly predicted the outcome in 2016 on the basis of social media content, now predicting? Or are we going to ignore him or her?

    • You might be thinking about Mark Blyth. I’ve been trying to find out what his thoughts are but haven’t been able to find anything definitive. In 2019 he was discussing Trump’s advantage with supporters who will definitely vote. This meant that Trump did not need to lead in the polls because a larger proportion of those who said they supported him would show up boost his numbers.

      2020, and all of its unusualness with COVID-19 and the response to the disproportionately high deaths of African American’s due to police violence, has appeared to engage more of the American population. It is expected that a far higher proportion of the population will vote in this election. Which party this ends up benefiting will be found out afterwards.

      Yesterday someone linked to a poll that had Trump getting up in swing state. The poll was done by the Trafalgar Group. They actually attempt to model the Shy Trump Voter into their results. At the last election they were better than other polling companies but were still not statistically fantastic.

      This being a comments section, I’ll throw in my 2c. I’ve no idea who will win. I still think that Biden will get up yet would not be surprised if Trump wins again. Given the difficulty in finding clear and simple reporting on the election and the candidates, and all of the other noise around the issue it isn’t something that I’ve put too much thought into.

      Regardless of the result one hopes that those that support the winner don’t gloat and those that support the loser are gracious. That goes for the parties and the candidates as well. Neither party, nor the majority of the media, should be proud of this election cycle. The worry is that the worst of America seems to seep into your politics and media and no population deserves to be treated the way the American people have been treated by these institutions.

      edit: Blyth, and other academics from the Watson Institute, comment on the election here.
      Blyth doesn’t make a prediction. I also can’t spot one on Twitter. He does discuss the role that voter suppression and legal bodies could play.

  12. Would be very easy to have voting by blockchain and voter social security number. Stop all corruption of votes.

    • Assuming all nodes in The network are owned by the government, then it’s useless.
      If you control all nodes, you can rewrite the history of the Merkel tree by getting >50% of nodes to show that history.

      Decentralization is the blockchain superpower. Centralising that with complete government ownership of nodes just makes it a really expensive database.

    • This.

      The future of democracy (after the coming breakdown) will be crypto identity and voting. It will enable more frequent participation in the democratic process. Expect to vote in many and frequent referendums and on policy issues.

      We’ll need a few politicians heads on pikes before this happens though. The elites won’t give up power quietly.

      • Chances of there being any democracy at all after the coming breakdown are slim to none.

        People on the side of democracy haven’t exactly been “winning” for the last few decades, y’know.

        • I live in hope but fear we’ll be ankle deep in blood at some point – esp. if climate change proves to be as threatening as presently predicted. Widespread hunger brings on violence and war very quickly.

    • Would be very easy to have voting by blockchain and voter social security number. Stop all corruption of votes.

      Tying someone’s vote to their SSN would be a Very Bad Idea. Anonymity is a cornerstone of democracy.

  13. That clip reel of Biden gaffes that Trump showed is jaw dropping.

    I just think Trump is going to win