Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

Stock markets are largely higher across Asia but there is some buying exhaustion setting in as the positive spin on the US election and vaccine news begins to wane despite the record high on the Dow Jones overnight. The USD continues to firm up against most of the majors with Bitcoin trying to pip above $19000 while gold remains at its new monthly lows, barely hovering above the $1800USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is falling fast going into the close, down about 1% to 3365 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index its still a case of treading water with a minor lift of 0.2% to 26648 points. Japanese stock markets continue to surge higher however with the Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 26296 points while the USDJPY pair has held on to its recent surge but continues to stall out here at the 104.50 mid level:

The ASX200 is having yet another very solid day, this time up 0.6% to the 6683 point level while the Australian dollar has reversed course this afternoon, heading back down to the low 73s against USD after attempting a new session high overnight:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are flat lining after being up mid session with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price a possible rollover here after the irrational exuberance of last night’s session:

The economic calendar is packed tonight with US durable goods orders, the latest 3Q GDP estimate, weekly initial jobless claims and some core CPI numbers for October.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Almost unbelievable, except it’s ingrained in the culture here as Gunna will attest.
      Ms Mersiades has balls of steel – puts the truth out there at whatever the personal cost.

    • How much more money Football Queensland got from the Federal government from he become CEO? He is worth every cent and more. It’s the ‘Game of Mates’, so ‘Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown’.

    • 🤦‍♂️
      On more serious note, we always buy Australian wine. We make more than good enough wine here and I see no reason why to buy foreign.
      But I am not buying into the “Sensible Patriot’s” nationalistic call that he is representing our best interests.
      He also tried to play (still playing) same card on the environment policy but he is realising it is not working. But he still drops the line that he represents Australia’s best interests despite analysts world over say renewable is now cheaper than coal and even gas (especially in our case). And we have all the free sun we want. We also have plenty of wind and tidal power if we really want more – not sure on economics of these but I am sure in near future will work out.
      I doubt it is working on China too as I am sure most (I know few here don’t agree with my view and that’s fine) are smart enough to know we did not have to go full hostile. Many of the issues we have with China we could have dealt with discreetly and prolong the period of “normal” relationship for few more years. This would have bought us time to move some of our exports to other markets and even be halfway through bringing some manufacturers back.
      I really see no reason but the desire to please Trump for going to the UN and asking them to investigate the origin of covid. As if only impacted. There is a good reason why EU is ignoring this and made it clear to US that if US wants to pick this fight US will have to start it.
      I am absolutely sure that many agri contracts we lost in China are now being picked by US farmers. Does anyone think Trump cares or perhaps Biden may change anything? Biden will be only too happy to take that business from us.
      Yes, we need to decouple – but even this good policy the Sensible Patriot found a way to stuff it up and cause unnecessary damage – pain.
      And no, I will not support that winery – I am sure they were happy to keep their mouths shut while their wine was flowing free into China. If their wine tastes good yes I will buy but will have nothing to do with their stand on China. I am sure I know where they stood on human rights while China was taking their wine.

      • I tend to agree with most of this. Australia losing agri contracts for doing US bidding only for US to gain a lot of that business is galling, the small consolation is that story you posted the other day, empty cotainers are worth more to Asia than containers full of US farm exports (obviously this won’t last forever but small consolation).

      • I agree with most of this too it could have all been handled in a smarter way. There was no reason to lead on the demand for COVID investigation – why not work with larger partners like EU/US etc which China can’t bully as easily?
        That said I support the farmer – yes he took Chinese money when they were able to sell there but he is now he is acknowledging the need to reduce his reliance on China. At least he has come to that realisation.
        Plenty of sellouts in industries heavily exposed to China still happy to sell out knowing what we know now and and lobbying for prostrating ourselves to China’s every demand.

        • Learning Mandarin

          I think you forget that China covered up this virus for months, demanded countries keep their borders open (China’s border now shut firmly tight of course to keep the virus out), China has never shared with the world how and where the virus started, they haven’t been transparent or forthcoming in encouraging any kind of investigation into the virus that could have helped save what will ultimately be millions of lives.

          • I think you should re-read what we are saying. Slowly.
            No one disputes that. But do you think only you and the Patriot worked that one out? You think US and EU haven’t noticed? It wasn’t for us to pull the trigger. Let US and EU do it and we can support them. We are now playing the role of useful 1d1ots and US farmers picking our contracts. Very savvy Mr Marketing.

          • The first point I will remember for the rest of my time on this earth.Open your borders Australia, let us in…..Whilst knowing.
            Not to be forgotten…Ever

      • Is this part of “there will be so much winning you will be tired of winning”? Asking for a friend.

        • Learning Mandarin

          Trump would have romped home without a once in a century pandemic that Biden won’t handle any differently (in fact he was demanding US borders stay open until late March).

          Economy hadn’t been stronger in years and is even doing relatively well now, unemployment was at a 60 year low, stock market at all time highs pre and post COVID, proven correct to be tough on China, first President in decades to not initiate war, historic agreements made between Israel and Muslim countries.

          Still came close to winning despite a global pandemic Trump is being disproportionately blamed for (lockdowns are a state matter as we’ll see when Biden doesn’t lockdown and the virus came from China).

          • Woulda, coulda shoulda…. still a loser.
            Just like Biden or Sanders would have won against Trump in ’16 but they put up Hillary. Or Hillary could have won if Comey didn’t announce the nothingburger investigations into her emails a week before the election. Results are results.

          • Learning Mandarin

            The western media has been gaslighting the public since he ran as the Republican nominee. It’s quite incredible that he came so close to winning when 9/10 articles written about him are hysterical and negative (despite incredible results in terms of jobs, economy, stock market, trade, world peace).

          • Pfffffft.

            Capital L, Loser.

            No doubt a month ago you were posting under another username telling us how Trump was gonna walk it in etc etc

          • Learning Mandarin

            Trump is a man of peace has criticised Bush and Obama endlessly for initiating silly wars around the world.

            A lot to play out of the coming months and years when systematic voter fraud is proven.

          • Yeah but he would have never got to where he was without the free media he received through his gaslighting. Can’t have it both ways.

          • Learning Mandarin

            Trump won with a Twitter account.

            Everyone mocked the idea of a candidate and then the President tweeting everyday, wasn’t becoming of the President.

            Now every pollie does it.

            Trump the trailblazer.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            The difference being that those other politicians don’t regularly tweet content proving they are out of touch with reality (or just like lieing, a lot).

            And yeah, Trump was the first Politician to tweet stuff. Right…

          • Learning Mandarin

            I get it you don’t agree with him the same way I can’t agree with leftist politics.

            By any objective measure Trump was an incredible success.

            He was the first to use it as his primary tool for communicating with the masses. Now every pollie around the world does it.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Now *that* is accurate. Edit: except for the success bit.

            But he was (probably) also the first President of *anywhere* to fire senior, adult, staff members of his team AND government positions via social media of any form.

            Dude, you really don’t want to hang your hat on Trump’s presidency based on his use of kofefee. Sorry, I mean twitter.

  1. Had to cut some risk and ended up selling SBM at a loss. not happy as I am sure Au will be much much higher in 6 months from now but I have to manage my risk exposure.

      • sold as I think it may fall again. Ni and Cu jumped too early and may fall again. Plus WSA is having production problems that may last until they open the new mine.
        Still hold SFR as this is more long term investment for me. So is NCM and if ALK finds high grade zones at Boda will be longer timeline play. Well, GOR too as they have proper greenfield exploration ground which means massive potential to find more of the same.
        That is how I think today. 😎

    • Sorry for the late reply but you asked how the wife was some days ago …. hows the end scene of the movie Liquid Sky make you feel … chortle …

        • Of course you don’t get it EP … you need to watch the entire movie then put it into the context of the period it came out and if that is too hard read a bio on it.

          Great cult sci fi movie up there with A Boy and His Dog or say THX1138.

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Interesting how the word Populism has its origins in an, almost agrarian socialists, left wing political movement in the United States.
    The closest thing America ever had to a British or Australian style Labour party according to Thomas Frank.
    Yet today our establishment media uses the term to denote pandering to deplorable, Working Class “right wingers” and as a slur against democracy.

    When watching a documentary on WW2 Tom gets annoyed when the narrator describes Hitler as a “populist”
    What!,…It was the populists that finished that guy!
    This is my favourite clip of the week.

    • Franks is very good and comprehensive. The terms populist, even democracy, etc are not absolute, they are shaped by national social histories. The problem is that terms are used in anachronistically, and no doubt Franks, as a historian, was irritated by that usage for Hitler, which is wrong.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Are you saying Frank’s position is Wrong.
        Or are you agreeing with him that Hitler was Not a populist?

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            I felt myself getting annoyed reading that Skip but was unsure why until I read the next linked article titled,

            “Great Recession unemployment fed left-wing populism; unauthorized immigration flows feed right-wing populism”


            It says

            “There has not been any empirical studies before on the different drivers between left- and right-wing populism at the individual level. A better understanding of what it is that feeds populism can be a great help to policy makers that want to manage the impact of it.”

            What a lot of elitist drivel.
            Technocratic policy makers, with a right to rule mentality, wanting to “manage the impact” of what?
            Isn’t it Democracy itself that they are really wanting to manage when talking about managing the problem of Populism?
            Why don’t they just cut the BS, man up and state what they are really opposed to.
            They (the users of said term) are opposed to Democratic control of the decision making process and the will of the majority.
            The use the term “Populism” to denigrate ideas, positions and opinions based on them being,…what?,…popular among the plebs!
            How revoltingly undemocratic.
            FK those #FakeLeft cnts at the Guardian
            Stooges of the Plutocratic establishment just as much as those Murdoch pr!cks.

          • I think you miss the point EP … populism is largely a term that refers to the flock of some – narrow – interest which gets swept away.

            Sorta like your deal with the term technocrats.

    • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

      Never fear niko, this is an opportunity. For me the fundamentals remain. Much focus on vaccines and expectations of a recovery. Well that’s great but Gold was ramping pre COVID for a reason. I’ve been waiting for an entry point since March and while I went two weeks early I’m still happy buying here.

      • I am thinking same but I do have very large exposure. So I thought to reduce risk just in case I am wrong. If gold turns around as we are sure it will I am still set to make a small fortune.

        • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

          I understand. Sounds like a good plan. A few weeks ago I asked you about mep and adn. I ended up buying them and they have done quite well. Pulled back today. All the best. I enjoy your posts.

        • And its a result that is baked in because people will seek safety and a better standard of living until the process invariably produces the result they were leaving for … commented for years on this from Calif to Colorado or the East – Midwest to Arizona.

          The only thing that has changed over the decades is the speed of events along with the volume of people during that time. Kinda why its nuts to frame the whole thing in romantic notions of the proverbial village and call it economics.

          All of this is brought to you by the free market = progress w/a side of uplift neoliberal bots and their proud sponsors …

          PS The thing about the wetbacks is the good trades people are hens teeth and have good employment prospects at home, hence the ones that do come to Qld will be the rejects, but employers won’t care because of cheaper labour costs in the near term with expectations of driving the whole labour market down in the medium term E.g. make money too day and run away … boom and bust …

          Who picks up the pieces when its all over – again – ????

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Does this mean only one state provided brand and size range will be available?

      I think Harry prefers the extra large, extra heavy flow, applicator Style of tampon.
      Will they still be available and be free,…for men?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        All I can add is that I did manage to wangle a work trip to Scotland once. Beautiful country wonderful scenery majestic lochs.

        The place is full of just really lucky cunnts.

  3. Soooo Matthias would have caught covid on commercial flights

    But captains of industry (IATA) have rubbished Qantas’ no jab no fly (bob marley wept) because bankruptcy

    Why couldn’t vibble vobbles zoomed this

  4. Banana ManMEMBER

    Virus psyco here; just wondering if you can prove lockdowns work and it wouldn’t have run itself out? My people are a strong people…. Meh, you want science, give me evidence.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      If you understood science at any level, you literally wouldn’t have asked that question. Trolling this late at night, you must find something more constructive to do. Why not raise the general future IQ of the population and go have a quiet [email protected] somewhere you wont get arrested again.

      That said: watch what happens in the US next week, and then a month after Thanksgiving. Donald’s last gift to the people of the US.


        • The Traveling Wilbur

          And if he did, in 2021, once he was in the office of President, and had the standing (but no authority) to ask the states to do just that, would that make a difference to anything that’s about to happen in 2020 under Trump’s Presidency, champ?

          Keep the asinine questions coming please, it’s that kind of week.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I acknowledge that you can point over there 👉 as much as you want and that it won’t change any of the stupid that’s already been espoused.

            And, like anyone else, including you, I have no idea what Biden will do in 2021. Still doesn’t have squat to do with 2020 and Trump and the original question, champ. Want to try moving the goalposts again?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Implying I made statements I didn’t.
            Raising new topics as you can’t defend your own earlier statements.
            Go troll someone else, I have better things to do with my life than decry failed one-term Presidents more than is absolutely necessary.