Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

More green across Asian stock markets today as traders discount concerns leading into the most volatile trading week (and month?) of 2020. The latest RBA meeting had the policy wonks finally join the rest of the “civilized” central bank world as they fire up the printing presses and cut rates to historic lows. USD is retreating again with gold dicing with the $1900USD per ounce level but not yet quite above it during this swing trade:

The Shanghai Composite is finally breaking free, launching more than 1% higher to be at 3266 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is up over 2% to 24999 points exactly. Japanese stock markets are having yet another holiday while trading in Yen is muted, pulling the USDJPY pair back to its Monday morning start at the 104.70 level:

The ASX200 has also managed a near 2% gain on the back of the RBA QE printing press starting up, closing at 6066 points while the Australian dollar lost ground initially but has basically absorbed the rate cut and the QE machinations to still be well above the 70 handle going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up again with the four hourly chart of the S&P still showing a desire to maintain above the 3300 point “bottom” as volatility gains momentum going into the election – watch for a very eventful night:

The economic calendar only really has one event worth watching, but I’d rather watch a Lord of the Rings extended edition marathon than go through any of the election rubbish on the telly. Make Mordor Great Again?

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. but I’d rather watch a Lord of the Rings extended edition marathon than go through any of the election rubbish on the telly.

    You say it like the LoTR extended edition marathon is a bad thing.

    • I have forsaken the TAB. The only gambling I do now is the occasionally powerbally or oz lotto when it is crazy big!!

      Gambling is a scourge in Australia.

      • After always assuming that the nags were rigged I recently watched McMillions on Binge TV and have basically lost all faith in any gambling beyond Rock Paper Scissors . Only took me nearly 50 years to figure that out….

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Used to love racing. Saw the Caufield Cup 2nd placer break down today. Had to be put down.

      I’m kinda over it.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Gordonvale races many moons ago. Great day out usually, everyone our for a drink. Horse broke down just on the home straight bend but in front of the car park where there’s plenty of young boot esky drinkers. Screen comes out but you can hear the horse screaming from where I was up near the finish line.

          I swear that put hundreds of youngsters off racing that day.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            As long as you didn’t mention Monday’s lasagne they would have been back. Eventually.

            Booze plus gambling is a succubus of infinite proportions.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            That’s me though!

            I had a punt today on the race. Ones I picked came second and fourth. Thought I’d watch the race to see what sort of run they had and if I was dudded. Then I see the poor thing with its flapping leg and I felt bad.

            Bugger me, I’m an enabler. I really have to stop.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Not just you! Though.

            And no. You’re not an enabler. Not unless you *don’t* believe in the doctrine of personal responsibility.

            There’s nothing wrong with gambling, or alcohol or ‘medical’ mary jane or oxy. If used responsibly.

            I’m not forgoing the opportunity to purchase Macdonalds just because some looser has to spend my taxpayer dollars to get their stomach stapled as they have no self/impulse control capabilities. For example.

            The alternative to that is some Footlose-situated-happy-clapppy-Nirvana. Not happening. Thank God!

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Does some poor fatty struggling to breathe at Maccas have a better choice than some poor horse screaming behind the screen at Gordonvale because its broken a collarbone and ruptured something?

            That’s where I struggle.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Depends how often the fatty was saddled-up involuntarily and taken for a good ride in the hedges.

            I’m happy with either being put down if that’s what they want.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It’s more than OK. Especially if you have preferences plural. Then it’s a list! (lists are good)

      • When a horse breaks a leg does it always have to be put to sleep? Can’t the leg be put into a cast etc.? I’m genuinely not sure what happens. Is there a reason it’s a death sentence?

        • This may be an unpopular opinion but I don’t mind eating some horsemeat products. Still haven’t had fresh horse (apparently is good, keen to try) but have had many handmade horsemeat salamis. Pretty hard to get horsemeat in oz unless they’re getting rid of racehorses/brumbies

          • CanuckDownUnder

            I went to Hot Horse when I was in Ljubljana, thought it was pretty good. It’s weird how cultural these things are, people back in Canada get really offended when I tell them I eat kangaroo meat.

        • It’s a cost thing. The recovery is long and expensive and they never really are the same ever again.

          And they already have another 30 in the stables to push through.

          It’s a cost thing. The recovery is long and expensive and they never really are the same ever again.

          And they already have another 30 in the stables to push through.

          Put it this way, if your employer had the choice, as soon as you fell sick, you’d be shot and 3 veebrunts would be hired in your place to mop you up and dispose of your remains. Human Remains would see that was done expeditiously

          Yeah, it’s a horrible ‘sport’.

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Whatever happens tomorrow: it’s been fun discussing and debating, and I hope that it’s a good clean game without any violence.
    #MakeQldGreatAgain

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Youse blokes are amateurs. Seriously, the big sign is when Gus Gould says that NSW are creating another dynasty.

          Guaranteed three series win to Qld.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Bledisloe. You know who I feel for? Gordon Bray. He lives and breathes the game. Over 400 games he’s called. And here he is in his 70s calling sh!t. He saw the highs of the 70s and 80s, the glory of the pumpkin jumper(still got one), the captains Shaw, Loane, Ella, Slack, Farr-Jones, Eales and the impossibly named Stirling Mortlock. Stirling Mortlock!

            Poor old Gordon is one of the Gods, and he wants to cry.

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        Just what are people doing when they move to Qld, in terms of employment? I’ve never exactly known Qld for its thriving employment market. Are people taking early retirements & moving there?

        • Good question. Sunny coast is going berserk. Anyone is selling what they like, rental hard to get. But other than a few biggish road projects, I can’t see any jobs boom. Who knows, it’s just happening!
          My parents just sold outside Cairns, in 5 weeks. It’s an area that can take 12 mths to get a sale, low & slow turnover etc. I’ve lived through plenty of downturns there, and it dies. Jobkeeper and interest rates I’m guessing but who knows.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Living off their savings. Hope is big. I know a couple of manufacturing mobs around Oxley and Rocklea that are being door knocked every day by desperados. Punters are trying to run their own businesses but without the old mates’ connections are struggling. Then you’ve got the partners who can’t pick up the 20-30 hours part time.

          Those couple of hundred gorillas they’ve ‘saved’ by moving north are soon eaten up.

          • There is a time, a place and a certain kind of person who can do that. These people aren’t that, neither is Queensland the place, nor is this the right time to do it.

            I suppose, their only merit is that they’re like manure, they may improve the place well enough for those whose time has come to make a difference.

  3. Expect the RBA to concentrate on 2026’s and 2027’s the AGB’s with the biggest coupons, they always do. They can have my 2033’s as soon as they go under 1% yield quote…….too much risk of this train wreck falling over that far out.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    When it comes to gambling on an individual scale, Aussies’ currently lead the way. In 2014, Australians gambled over $916 per person, with Singaporeans coming a close second on $891.16. Singapore only recently legalized casino gambling, and the per-head spend isn’t a surprise.

    Despite being the home of Las Vegas, Americans are a distant third on $505.44 per capita, with Ireland and its liberal approach to gambling next on $490.39. The UK, with legal land-based and online gambling, and boasting one of the world’s premier licensing jurisdictions, sits way back on $377.83.

    https://www.casino.org/features/gambling-statistics/

    Australia first, Singapore second. Smells like money laundering.

    https://www.casino.org/features/gambling-statistics/

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Not sure about Singapore, but in Australia the poker machines is more than double the amount gambled through the casino. Money launders through the poker machines is too time consuming.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    When it comes to gambling on an individual scale, Aussies’ currently lead the way. In 2014, Australians gambled over $916 per person, with Singaporeans coming a close second on $891.16. Singapore only recently legalized casino gambling, and the per-head spend isn’t a surprise.

    Despite being the home of Las Vegas, Americans are a distant third on $505.44 per capita, with Ireland and its liberal approach to gambling next on $490.39. The UK, with legal land-based and online gambling, and boasting one of the world’s premier licensing jurisdictions, sits way back on $377.83.

    Australia first, Singapore second. Smells like money laundering.

    Edit: can’t post the link ‘cause macro-bot.

    • Yeah Ireland has Paddy Power and they are parasites all over the country with agencies all over and lots of IT jobs always advertising for talent. I suspect people don’t stay working there for long.

  6. – It was for me already in 2016 clear that the US had become a banana republic. No matter who wins, the US will become a banana republic on steriods.

    • There is a lot of good things about the US but it’s been hijacked by vested interests and fake news and misinformation. Australia is not immune to similar influence. We’ve seen China creeping in to our country with their own propaganda too.

    • Isnt a banana republic a single commodity export economy with third world characteristics?
      I can see how australia fits the bill somewhat with Iron ore, the USA still has a diversified economy.

    • 788 Multiple foreign currencies could be used but rum was also widely accepted.
      1814 Holy Dollar and Dump (derived from Spanish Dollars) introduced in NSW.
      1825 Australia started using the Sterling Standard and British coins were minted in Australia.
      1910 The Australian Pound was introduced (initially fixed to the Pound Sterling).
      1966 The Australian Dollar (using a decimal system) replaced the Pound.
      1967 The AUD is pegged to the USD at A$1 = $US1.12.
      1983 The AUD becomes a floated currency.
      1984 One dollar coin is introduced.
      1988 Two dollar coin is introduced.
      1988 Australia develops and starts using the world’s first polymer banknotes.
      2006 One and two cent coins removed from circulation.

      LMMAO ….

  7. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    somebody has probably already linked this
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/banking/commonwealth-bank-places-freeze-on-forced-sales-for-virus-impacted-customers/news-story/0b907eef518a7f15892eba954b336277

    Commonwealth Bank will freeze forced sales for customers who have defaulted on their loan repayments due to financial ramifications sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

    The country’s largest retail bank has initiated a moratorium on forced sales until September 2021, for customers which have accessed COVID-19 loan deferral schemes and are still unable to resume normal payments.

    • Probably trying to send a signal to those looking to buy but think they should hold off in anticipation of a bunch of mortgagee sales – that is, don’t wait, buy now.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      “This means any customer making full mortgage repayments in the 12 months prior to entering a home loan deferral will be able to remain in their home until September 2021, even if they are now struggling to get back to making repayments, where they agree to work with us.”

      Eh, seems fair enough I suppose. I don’t want to see the almighty guillotine swing down on people in these circumstances; at least the bank has put a timeframe on it to give them a year to sort it and, if not, then we’ll talk. Some of them might sell on their own terms in the next 6 months if things are bleak. The alternate I guess is be pushed… but it might be a lot different in a year.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          I ditched my card for that reason. Well, that and I’m not flying anywhere so the FF program is worthless. I applied for another one but they haven’t bothered to return my calls. Eh, their loss.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      F’berg slipped & said the RBA was doing a good job supporting Mortgagers. The bird on the ABC said he meant to say Mortgagees. Yeah, right.

  8. The Traveling Wilbur

    There better be a US election article for comment getting posted soon… Pleeeeeeeeeease….

    (sooner this is all over the better)

  9. looks like Futures and commodities are pricing Joe to win and the green new deal to kick in from tomorrow on. Without any stimulus agreed.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Probably everywhere but definitely BBC world. Maybe the old Parliamentary News Network on am?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Ta, okay, I’ll expand the question.

        Is there anywhere I can listen to heads explode on the wireless tomorrow? And from when…10, 11?

        • lol.. every station. But best to watch TV such as 7, 9, 10 or if you have CNN or MSNBC (Rachel Maddow) even better. To watch Rachel cringe while reporting Trump vitory will be priceless.
          Man, if he really wins.. But I think it will be hard for Trump to win this one. Looks like it’s done deal. Futures don’t price Trump victory.. so far. But then again I remember what happened in 2016 when someone was signing front cover magazines – Madam President. 😂

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            They’re probably collectors items now.
            …must have been surreal in the 48hrs pre/post vote with all these polls and all these people telling you you’re going to be the first female president and then you have to sit and watch in horror as state by state, dagger by dagger, your dream is extinguished.
            And particularly to the alternate candidate.

          • Trump will win the elec college and lose the popular vote. It’s been heading down this road since the DEM picked Biden. You would thing they learnt there lesson after Hillary. Wonder what the odds are for Tulis in 2024.

          • I got 50 bucks down on trump at $3.0. noticed today he’s come in to 2.66 and put another 50 on. I honestly can’t see Trump losing. i gotta get out more I guess.

      • Id recommend Raw FM. Shite thumpa thumpa music but nothing but shite thumpa thumpa music. Whether you listen in or not to continuous updates will not change the outcome, which likely wont be known straight away anyway.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      The way straya is going when there will be freshly minted Citizens sitting on the roof of the trains no need for air conditioning

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      A billion person factory with a handful of owners they’d want to have at least that

      They’re like the fckn borg fckn

      • the ratio between super rich and the unwashed is same everywhere. Last time I checked, in Merica, the 1% hold more wealth than rest of the unwashed masses.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      It’s not 2016 when every single celeb in the world was cheerleading for hilldawg, she grew up in Penn. Trump is trying to make it just like 2016 but its not

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      It’s late in the 4th quarter. One team is up 5 goals; we just don’t know which one. The sloppy handball will be inconsequential in the final analysis.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I’ve been a member of that team that went through the season undefeated and lost the grand final.

        Never forget it.

  10. happy valleyMEMBER

    And wouldn’t the senior managements of Straya’s “unquestionably strong” (LOL) banks be having orgasms tonight and severe cases of RBA tongue rash? Free money and heaps of it to lend and Josh telling them to lend irresponsibly. Yippee.