Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Nassim Taleb annihilates Shitcoin

A sea of green across Asian stock markets today as we start the most volatile trading week of 2020. USD is retreating against some undollars with gold managing a small boost to $1884USD per ounce, but still well below its previously well supported $1900 level:

The Shanghai Composite is again stuck with a scratch session, up only 0.1% to 3225 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has surged 1% to 24365. Japanese stock markets are boisterous too, with the Nikkei 225 closing nearly 1.4% higher to 23295 points as the USDJPY pair begins to push on overhead resistance at the 104.70 level:

The ASX200 is also moving forward, up 0.4% to 5951 points as traders await the triple whammy of the US election, Melbourne Cup and the RBA meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile the Australian dollar is fast losing ground and is now dicing with the 70 handle going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up slightly with the four hourly chart of the S&P still showing an inability to get back above the 3300 point “bottom” as volatility gains momentum going into tomorrow’s shitstorm aka “election”:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet at first and then ramps up with the latest US ISM manufacturing PMI.

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  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    .That Jobkeeper, a fiasco. How would they work out if someone worked last year but got paid this year. How would they work out how many hours worked if the hourly rate changes with each job. How would they work out labour hours and materials lumped together.

      • sold out all my IGO, reduced SFR by 40% and WSA by 30%. Break even as I had profits on IGO and SFR. Expecting more falls so there will be better entry points. But still keep some SFR and all my gold miners in case I am wrong.

        Now waiting to see what RTR has to say about their Western Queen exploration – in trading halt atm. Hope I got this one right. Feels right but is it?

    • I keep an eye but it’s too expenssive atm – for me that is. Plus their MD is bit of a joke and their JV partner KCC is bit worse then the REE MD. Very unpreofesional with their announcements.

      May opt to stay out of it unless I smell they are about to hit something big at Trundle.

    • 24 hours to go,
      They should stop campaigning in the last 3 days
      Campaigning silence..
      What do you think of warning locals not to go to
      US of A while no international flights allowed anyway!


      Obama, what we gonna do?
      Inject him with the Wuhan flu.
      Hillary Clinton, what we gonna do?
      Lock her up like we used to do.
      Fauci don’t know his head from his ass. He must be smoking grass.
      I ain’t lying, it ain’t no jokes. Corona is a liberal hoax.
      Dr. Fauci, what we gonna do? Inject him with the Wuhan flu. WHO, what we gonna do? Chop ’em up like the Saudis do

    • Fauci is a man of science. Science is bad. Just like Global Warming and bush fires etc.. All I can say is Americans have the Government they deserve.

  2. I fully expect every each one of you to have MYQ app installed on your phones by tomorrow morning.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There you go, until right now I didn’t know what is was.

      How much money can my arse size make me?

  3. “Pauline Hanson blames lack of immigration for QLD election disaster” haha Betoota excellence 🙂

  4. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Voted on the weekend in the Qld election.
    Isn’t it nice that our elections (despite all the misleading rubbish that comes out of nearly every major political party re: advertising) doesn’t descend into an overt attempt to have as many votes cancelled out as possible prior to, and during, the count? At least we have the AEC (or state equivalent) to keep a lid on things and ensure there is no bullsh!t at the close of the ballot box at 6pm.

    • Americans sure as fvck don’t want a hike in their tax obligations as I understand it, so anything is possible! What would you rather, 4 more years of Trump or pay higher taxes……hmmmmm #dilemma

      • …. so that even more poor Americans cannot access/afford basic healthcare and food. Wonderful place for the working poor – black, white, yellow, tan.

        MAGA is great – for the top 1 %

      • That may be the case, but it’s Biden’s wishy-washy stance on law and order that matters more methinks.

        Trump would have the rioters run into the sea but Biden and Camel-ah have been much more friendly toward them during the BLM fuss.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          That’s the big one I’ve been wondering about as well. The BLM looting looks likes it has hit a nerve.

          Biden by all rights should sh!t it in, but it will be mightily ironic if the BLM movement kills his run.

          • Not really Swamp, but I was bored. And I’m bored of American politics. People have called Biden names and Trump names, so my why no Kamala? She shouldn’t be left out — that would be discrimination.

        • Trump would have the rioters run into the sea but Biden and Camel-ah have been much more friendly toward them during the BLM fuss.

          Must be that lefty authoritarianism you keep talking about.

          • It’s all going down hill fast, bols. That’s what happens when years of economic and monetary mismanagement start to hurt a critical mass of real people. Centrist politics is dead for the foreseeable future.

    • Direct quotes from the Age article ….
      ‘Polls and commentators are forecasting a Biden win but Australians in their thousands have still backed Trump at $2.50 to stay in the White House.’
      ‘“92 per cent of turnover has been on Donald Trump, and Sportsbet stands to lose more than $10 million if Trump wins,” Sportsbet chief executive Barni Evans said.’
      Not sure when they pay out though. Could be waiting for some time.

    • If Trump wins, America is more fecked than I thought. After all Trump has done. I cannot see how he will be given another term. But deep down in my gut I’m worried he will win. I would put money on it, but I’m not a gambler.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      The man can’t sleep. Paralysed by the fear of 2021 and the only number outstripping Covid cases are court appearances he has to make.

    • And she says baby
      It’s three a.m. I must be lonely
      Oh, when she says baby
      Well I can’t help but be scared of it all sometimes
      And the rain’s gonna wash away I believe this

      • Printing money to pay one’s bills is a form of default but the subtlety of that may be lost on a few lurkers here.

        Batnick’s second chart on that Twitter feed says it all, but a few will still refuse to see the truth.

        I’ll just add that both France and Germany have defaulted in this way in the past – but I’m sure it couldn’t possibly happen again 😉

        • both hard and soft money eras have occurs across vast time and space and neither has survived corruption … your point again?

          • Corruption? I thought we were talking about ‘default’?

            Or perhaps they’re the same thing? Give me a sec while I check my dictionary …

          • Corruption of contracts and the judicial system that enforces them proceed just about every currency or money form implosion – its just plain old history. War debt implosion under hard currency systems is a feature and not a bug, same with trade shocks for both soft and hard.

            Most hard currency systems are based on moralizing money as a means to harden contracts, yet it always ends up consolidated to those with the power to dictate laws and their administration. Really don’t see much difference in soft or hard as administered by corporatist neoliberal philosophy, seems one needs to deal with the latter before the former.

            PS albeit see response to mig below, big changes in the wind right now, huge hash-out with short and long term ramifications.

    • MMT is only applicable to developed nations w/ sovereign issuance.

      It is not a description of how emerging nation markets FX works due to international trade flow dynamics not to mention a cornucopia of other political factors – IMF et al BS.

        • Huh – ????

          China is an autonomous monetary sovereign with a seat at the SDR [Sovereign Debt Resolution] table, can’t get more MMT than that.

          Before covid things were in the works, but with the way covid is working out it seems things will be rolled out faster along with changes that reflect the new environment E.g. big paradigm shift.

  5. If Trump wins the election, will the posts saying that he did be deleted? Or will the deletions stop?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      A better question would be, if Trump looses, will we have to acknowledge Hillary as being the President for the last 4-years?

    • Dude, the real issue is more like this…if Trumpollini watch simmering Nationalism explode…

      Everything you’re mentioning is chump change by comparison…

        • Well there’s no shortage of them so I guess your problem must be the usual conservative view that ‘if everyone doesn’t agree with me I’m being oppressed’ ?

        • Trump is going to “win” Hawkiss…aka he’ll steal it. You have to be Blind Freddy to not see this coming. Furthermore, I don’t have any faith that Americans can save their democracy. Its a kleptocracy now, through and through. The experiment is over.
          I’ll be shocked if he loses. Not shocked if he loses the popular vote though.

          • Cough … representative republic … see Citizens United and stocked SCOTUS … democracy chortle …


    In an interview in the Chinese government mouthpiece, the Global Times, China Market Research Group founder Shaun Rein said COVID-19 spread globally because of the “failed policies stemming from Europe, the US and Australia”

    No doubt this fool came up with this whilst enjoying his decoy bowl of pangolin soup.

    Time to put a covid reparations tax on all exports to the Nazi china empire. Change the name of every the china embassy street to Covid 19 way.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Wonder if we will import the white flags
      from China that “business “ will be running up shortly

      They really are putting on the squeeze.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        It’s not difficult for a regular hard-baller to see how weak, desperate and stupid Scummo is.

        We’re f#cked.

        • The Scrotum should not have yelled at the China people.
          They do not like “WHAT THE BL00DY ARE YOU DOING !!!!!” yelled at them.
          He still thinks he’s in advertising.

    • You now when lobster fishermen groups were unable to ship lobster to the Nazi china because flights were grounded due to the Nazi china epidemic they declined to sell the catches into the local market instead suspended operations. Why is that. You’d think for once locals could enjoy lobsters harvested here. But no.

      • Thank you for saying this!!! When I heard the lobster rep on abc radio this morning having a whinge I was blowing up at the radio, people in cars around me were a bit shocked lol

      • They’re not the only ones protecting local prices. That sacred cow, the wine industry, dumps huge quantities of wine in Europe and the US in order to protect prices domestically. I remember buying Penfolds Grange (as part of a Penfolds package) for very little in London in the early noughties. Other Aussie wines were often a third (or less) of the price they sell for here.

        But the wine industry story gets worse. Straya imposes a Wine Equalisation Tax on foreign imports – works out at 50%! This ensures that foreign wines sold here are substantially more expensive than they would otherwise be and this too protects local producers from margin pressure. In fact, it’s all that ensures many operators can turn a profit.

        So, all up, us local consumers get reamed by the gubbermint protecting certain industries i.e. corporate welfare.

          • Definitely. That’s my point — you can either ‘dump’ product in another country and hopefully get a few bucks in return or you literally take the product to the dump (or destroy it). Same outcome i.e. artificially limited supply.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        There is only one market for big fresh rock lobster : the Chinese. Will the local pay over $1000 AUD for a lobster? That’s how much a lobster dish cost in a Chinese restaurant in China.

    • I think a lot of ships need a lot of safety inspections at Port Hedland. Cyclone season approaching, can’t be too careful. Could take months for iron ore to get to China. Years even.

    • Only a matter of time before iron ore is hit and Twiggy has to publicly declare which country he’s a part of. My guess it isn’t EZFKA.

      McGowan better have an ace up his sleeve when that happens (read: ponzi) because WA will be in a world of trouble when iron ore is hit.

  7. The top 10 of the recent 2020 AFR rich list is literally 95% property and mining. Cannon-Brookes/Farqhuar the only exception. Pratt doesn’t really count IMO because most of his stuff is done overseas. All the problems with this country tie back to this crowd.

    • Thanks for doing the count.
      It’s a pity the AFR does not have a Top 100 of Australian innovators and real job-creaters, not rent-seekers
      But, we are a “lucky” country.

      • In my younger days we told a joke that went like this:

        Q: What’s the shortest book in the world?
        A: The book of Italian war heroes!

        A good alternative would be:
        Q: What’s the shortest book in the world?
        A: The book of wealthy Strayan inventors and innovators!

  8. Trumpollini’s Blackshirts running people off highways now?

    I’ve been saying for years now: the USA is dangerously pre-fascist.

    The election isn’t about this and that – the soul of US democracy is at stake.

    • They lost the plot over there..borat exposed them..
      Makes one wonder if he dose the movie here would Scomo or any other politician do like Rudy Giuliani??

    • Country is doomed. Has been for some time, but I think things fundamentally shifted after 9/11. Entering Iraq again, then the 08 bubble and bail out. More and more inequality etc.. distrust of Politicians, Media etc.. then social media is being used by foreign entities and influence what people think and believe.

      I can’t see how this election goes smoothly. I’ll be shocked if Trump gracefully concedes defeat. He will play dirty ..

    • I’ve been saying for years now: the USA is dangerously pre-fascist.

      Arguably has been well and truly on the path since all the anti-terrorism laws in the wake of 9/11.

      Check out the latest Last Week Tonight’s section on AG Bill Barr.

        • Sorry I get it through channel Bittorrent. Not sure who broadcasts it locally – probably Foxtel ?

          The TL;DR version is Barr thinks the President should basically be able to do whatever he wants.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Agree about 9/11 being the Big Bang moment in the plan to usher in the 4th Reich
        The TwinTowers was the precurser to the rise of the Fascist state

  9. It is late in the day, but the corelogic numbers are showing green shoots everywhere on the annual numbers, however, if Melbourne doesn’t get its act together soon, it will go negative on 13th November. Watch this space!

  10. Just read the commemts on US virus article. Wtf?! We’re just starting into the Northen Hemisphere second wave with hospitals starting to buckle under the case loads and I’m still fckn reading “just the flu”. That’s some dedicated trolling or you people are fckd in the head….