Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Kayaking in the Cook Islands, 2019: Photo by H. Becker

The higher than expected PMI prints in China today and sending stock markets in the Middle Kingdom higher while other bourses across Asia are in retracement mode despite the solid lead from Wall Street from Friday. Bitcoin is bouncing back harder, now well above $18000, while the weaker USD is still not helping gold at all, knocking it back to another new low, barely off the $1770USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is the odd one out, pushing more than 1% higher before its long lunchbreak to be well over 3400 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is down 0.7% to 26466 points. Japanese stock markets are also struggling as the weight of a stronger Yen bears (sic) down some more, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.7% to 26464 points while the USDJPY pair has continued its downtrend, still well below the 104 handle and possibly back to the mid November lows:

The ASX200 is the worst in the region, closing 1.2% lower to be well below the 6600 point level with resource companies and Qantas hit hard, while the Australian dollar briefly had a peakaboo above the 74 cent level but is pulling back ever so slightly before the London open, almost breaking its August high:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down 0.5% or more with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a potential retracement of the mid-week gains from last week back towards the key psychological 3600 point level:

The economic calendar starts the week with German inflation and US pending home sales.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. ALK had lot of support today in contrast to rest of the gold stocks (except for NCM but NCM pumps lot of Cu too). At closing almost 10m shares settled to bring the daily volume to almost 15m. This is very high daily volume.

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    So I’ve had a fun couple of weeks trying to get my head around cryptocurrency trading – closed up today after a wild ride late last week to watch it recover most of my losses.
    I think I get the appeal for the young folk who are all #YOLO with their money, but I still don’t really understand what I am buying into at this point.
    Anyway I say this as someone who has crossed some Rubicon of financial knowledge but I bet I’ll be wading into the market again in a week when I am otherwise suitably bored with life and need a screen to F5 hundreds of times a day.

  3. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Scott Morrison demands apology from China over ‘repugnant’ fake tweet showing Australian soldier murdering child

    China blocks Australian copper imports – but demand for it is soaring

    They really seem to want to make an example of Australia here.

    I think we should abrogate the FTA and recognise Taiwan, and offer asylum to anyone making it out of Hong Kong Tibet or Xinjiang……

    And announce a Royal Commission into the integrity of funds used by Chinese nationals to buy Australian real estate post 2010…

    and impose a $40 tonne tariff on iron ore exports.

    • “and impose a $40 tonne tariff on iron ore exports.” – agreed.
      and to top that off, we should offer a $10 per ton discount to any nation buying our ore excluding China.

      The CCP really look like a group of school girls in a playground today… interesting to see how far this goes. scary, potentially

    • I reckon we should let them make a few more multi-billion dollar local asset purchases, then seize that shxt back off them.


      I reckon we should torpedo the Chinese Fascist floating fish factory. If the greens did it I’d vote for them.

      • Indeed. Who doesn’t want their politicians to get more forcefully involved in judicial and legal processes? What could possibly go wrong there?
        We should be more like China in that regard.

    • At the end of the day we just have to cop any criticism of our military on the chin because we committed ghastly war crimes.

      China not long ago crossed the Indian border and committed crimes against humanity, but they do that to their own citizens.

      We need to hold ourselves to a higher standard than that of China.

      Unless Morrison is prepared to highlight China’s human rights record then he needs to just zip it.

      • Bottom line is ADF accepted their solders committed these crimes and they are now dealing with this issue. This is probably the only example where Anglo country has taken such steps. And I am happy how things are moving right now. Abd this is something China will never do if their army gets exposed doing same no matter how credible the evidence is.
        However, at the beginning It was really poor form when the Gov and perhaps the army first applied lot of pressure on ABC for investigating these crimes but at the end things got sorted out. Only at the very end the Patriot condemned the army as he saw an opportunity to score political points.
        On the other hand we have US imprisoning Julian who exposed them killing civilians and not a word from the Patriot.
        And in regards to what Scott thinks or says or what China thinks or says, I don’t give a fek. This is geopolitical game where Scott found himself in trouble as he started a fight he won’t be able to finish so now he is upping the hit by playing the nationalistic card.
        Instead of asking for an apology he can simply point out that the photo is fake and that we won’t be lectured by a country who make citizens disappear for criticising the government. A country that commits genocide on daily basis.

      • Charges are bogus. Not one person will be convicted of these so called war crimes and further there will be no evidence found that would compell prosecution. Every action is justified. People seem to forget it’s war.

          • I have many friends and family who are current or ex ADF, they’re as disgusted in the SF boys as the general population.

            Fog of war is so passe. This is the modern era of elite, proffesional, technician operators. They know what they sign up for, they know when they’re stepping over the line no matter how they justify it.

            This isn’t young Fred who signed up to 6RAR for lack of better options and gets deployed and in a heat of the moment takes out some civilians. These are long term, career soldiers who messed up. The reason we even know about it is because their comrades also disagree with what they’ve done, that’s a huge deal for units as insular as SAS 2cmdo.

            There’s plenty of blame for the higher ups and govt as well but I’m not letting off some bad eggs just because you think they’re good blokes. Stuff em. They ruin it for all those that do the job properly that do deserve our respect.

          • And yet the guys i know have to a man and woman, some of whom have deployed twice to the relevant area have expressed their anger and disgust at the stripping of medals and public condemnation all with out an investigation or successful prosecution. And without an understanding of what this current war is like. A population brought up on saving private ryan just does not get it and never will until they are forced to confront the enemy head on.
            As one of them said to me. this isnt 1917. There isn’t an identifiable enemy just on the other side of a hill. The bad guys are your next door neighbors who will smile and sidle up to you all the while reaching to trigger the vest they are wearing because they believe in an ignorant violent religion that promises them a paradise.

          • The majority of current serving ADF non coms and grunts signed up post 9/11, they knew what they were getting into. Far out, anyone who has even taken a cursory glance at the Vietnam war knows what you’re getting into if you sign up.

            The people you know sound like ignorant whingers. WTF did they expect? Of course it’s not 1917, counterinsurgency/not knowing who the bad guys are has been the style of warfare in play in nearly every single ADF deployment since WW2. Malayan Emergency, Vietnam, Rawanda, Balkans, take your pick.

            I can understand why you’re upset, but far out, these guys are straight up bad eggs doing bad stuff and should not be given the slightest bit of sympathy. Defence chief has backed down on stripping the unit citation, so there isn’t really much to whinge about.

          • As one of them said to me. this isnt 1917.

            Well, it kind of is. I mean, we are once again fighting someone else’s war on the other side of the planet despite a complete lack of relevance or threat to ourselves.

        • It’s not justified at all, it’s a war crime. Their action generates more support for the Taliban, which is the opposite of why the troops are there in the first place.

          Counter-insurgency have never worked in Afghanistan. There is a very good reason why it’s called the graveyard of empires. as both geography and the population does not support centralized rule. Faced with an impossible task, foreign troops garrisoned there always ends up committing all kinds of atrocities in response.

        • “People seem to forget it’s war.”

          Lol nah! If they forgot that it would already be murder

    • MountainGuinMEMBER

      Perhaps reply with a picture of a C C P official instead of a aussie solider and urghars, Fallon gong members, organ donors, HK residents and Covid sufferers instead of the kid.

    • It’s all about appearances for Morrison – he seems genuinely angrier about the meme than he was about the evidence of ADF troops killing people.

    • re. the tariff the best way to do it is to make it retrospective, eg tax the Australian assets of Chinese residents.

    • Could this thing be another contrived distraction as the gates get thrown open again and the soft takeover continues? With SloMo’s history there has to be something cooking elsewhere.

    • Scummo should release the classified reports and international witness statements that indicated that Nazi china ran over thier own citizens with tanks during a little thing called tienamin square massacre. People condemning scummo for fighting back you should all be ashamed of yourselves. You have no right to call yourself Australian.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “I think we should abrogate the FTA and recognise Taiwan.”

      100% on the FTA followed by a system of tariffs and protections that brings value adding manufacturing back to Australia.

      As for Taiwan though I urge caution.
      It is our Ally, the US, who makes Taiwan’s continued existence possible.
      It is their thermo nuclear weapons that have keep China at bay over the very personal final enclave of the Kuomintang.
      It is the US that bears responsibility for taking the lead in advocating for Taiwan’s independence, not ours.

      Note,….I hope the US continues to support Taiwan’s independence and think we should follow that lead.
      After all it is their Thermo Nukes that protect our sovereignty as well from a country that could replace our entire population with less than 2% of theirs.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      With the US practiacally sidelined due to the post election “handover” of administrations , the timing of the Chinese government’s attack on Australia is worth noting.

  4. “invisible influencers: introduction to uncovering and mitigating unconscious bias”

    Can I run it through a unit test suite? No? WTF is this…

  5. “Mr Andrews acknowledged the department had become “too big”, but said this was because of the broad reform agenda of the government and not a design flaw in the bureaucracy.”

    Did Sweeper write this crud?

    • From memory he promised to do all sorts of outlandish things if the impossible happened and Dopey Joe won. Dom might be doing a Steve Keen and be half way up Kosciuszko.


    … at least Nationals Housing Spokesperson and ACTs Leader are taking sense …

    Jacinda Ardern denies passing blame to public over housing crisis – ‘I’ve listened’ … Anna Whyte … TVNZ

    … extract …

    … National’s (Housing Spokesperson) Nicola Willis tweeted in response to the comments by the PM – “disappointing”.

    “The Government’s major response to our housing woes? Duck for cover and attribute blame.

    “It won’t get houses built,” she wrote. Let’s instead focus on boosting supply: zoning for growth, removing consent hurdles, funding infrastructure, helping community providers etc etc

    ACT leader David Seymour called the PM’s comments “tone deaf”.
    “If the public is to blame, what can the Prime Minister do about it? Proper reform of the RMA, including widespread fast-track consenting of new house-building is the only way to fix the problem, and she knew that when she became Prime Minister.

    “This isn’t a tax issue, it’s a local and central government getting out of the way of building houses issue.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    … and Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr made it crystal clear with TVNZ’s John Campbell recently … so that monetary policy can work normally. It can’t when urban land markets are strangled …

    Record house prices not caused by Reserve Bank – Adrian Orr … TVNZ

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      National and ACT bellyaching about a problem they did nothing about while in power, now that they are in opposition. Does make it hard to take them seriously, but also does not excuse the current govt. Their record on housing has been appalling.

      • Some confuse etymology with substance.

        “1540s, “introduce as new” (transitive), from Latin innovatus, past participle of innovare “to renew, restore;” also “to change,” from in- “into” (from PIE root *en “in”) novus “new” (see new). Intransitive meaning “bring in new things, alter established practices” is from 1590s. Related: Innovated; innovating.”

        ” refine (v.)
        1580s, of metals, c. 1590 of manners, from re-, intensive prefix, obsolete fine (v.) “make fine,” from fine (adj.) “delicate.” Compare French raffiner, Italian raffinare, Spanish refinar. General and figurative sense is recorded from 1590s; of sugar, from 1610s. Related: Refined; refining”

  7. People are finally cottoning on to the merits of negative rates.
    Hugh Hendry’s proposal makes sense target total debt / GDP around 450%, set the policy rate at -2% and aim to transfer about 9% of GDP from creditors to debtors each year.

        • pfh007.comMEMBER

          Bond holders?

          You are the one who wants the government to churn out bonds for rich folk to buy and have the central bank bid them up to generate capital gains for the big end of town.

          But then you do love a banker dominated public monetary system don’t you?

          • If they are just clipping coupon and rolling them then the CG washes out in the lower yield each time they roll.

            I’m talking about the money at interest do nothing creditor class not a small time bond trader.

            Yes I want them to be bid up so the creditor class ends up losing money.

            And GDP is transferred to debtors.

          • Lol!!! How in the F can anything be transfered to debtors that isn’t a lien?

            And if it is, why would you care who originates the obligation or who it falls on???

            You don’t. You impugne the least to drain they’re participation in the objective of retaining the most to the least of all economic participants….

  8. Does China’s tariffs on our wine mean we may see cheaper prices for Australian wine? My understanding is Aussie wines are selling for less in the US and China than they sell here.

    • Someone posted the good info a few weeks back about this. Apparently we won’t see on the shelf price drops on the good gear (just like lobesters, gtta look after themselves and keep up that high price as standard). Gtta buy from those wine sellers that do black box/mystery box specials.

        • so good. pointed contrast to the absolute dross I get by the glass in every licensed establishment in this nation’s great capital. I now actively look for foreign wines on the wine list. they are also overpriced mafia-rebottled crap but sometimes a different flavour.

    • Aust has the awful Wine Equalisation Tax which means that out good wines are more expensive here than in many places overseas.

      When I was living in London, I could but Grange at Tescos.

  9. pro-scienceMEMBER

    Here are 7 fun facts about the election:
    1. Biden won a record low 16.7% of counties but got 10 million more votes than Obama.
    2. Voter turnout was 3 standard deviations above the mean.
    3. Republicans won 27/27 “contested” House of Representative seats and flipped 13.
    4. The winner has for the last 36 years won at least 15/17 Bellwether counties but Biden won only 1/17.
    5. Trump had the highest % of non-white votes of any Republican in history.
    6. Biden was down more than 10% in NY but up huge in a few large counties in swing states (the same ones that stopped counting in the evening then had huge Biden vote dumps overnight).
    7. 450,000 ballots in battleground cities had a vote only for Biden with no down ballot votes cast.

      • pro-scienceMEMBER

        The electoral colleges meet on December 14 to choose the President. Until then legal challenges can change the result.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Funny how none of the tinfoil-hat lawyers walk into court and dare utter the words “the election was fraudulent”.
          Why not? If they truly have the courage of their convictions…
          Oh that’s right, there are penalties for lying in court. Appears their grand theory of bullsh!t only goes skin-deep.

          • pro-scienceMEMBER

            Where have you been? There are several cases in the courts right now now alleging large-scale election fraud through a variety of means. These cases will end up in the US Supreme Court where there are 6 Republican and 3 Democrat judges. Do the math.

          • Again, the little language tells. In Australia we do the “maths”. Either you are a yank or you get your talking points off a US website.

  10. You either love him or hate him, so just curious if anyone is going to see Friendly Jordie when he tours next year?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      A contingent is an excellent idea Apeach500.
      I Baggs sitting next to Mig and Harry.

      What pub are we meeting at first?

    • You need to lay off the drugs man. Watching your twitter videos is depressing. If you need help get it, if getting high helps do it, but from the look of them vids getting high is not helping.