Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Atiutaki, Cook Islands 2019: Photo by Chris Becker

Stock markets still want to go higher here in Asia, but momentum is waning after being so overbought for so long. The news of a second potentially successful COVID vaccine has not been enough to embiggen spirits as expected.  The weakening USD has stabilised slightly throughout the session with gold still under pressure as it remains unable to get back up to the $1900USD per ounce resistance level:

The Shanghai Composite is falling going into the close, currently down 0.4% at 3333 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session, up only 0.1% at 26384 points. Japanese stock markets are trying their best with the Nikkei 225 climbing 0.3% to 26004 points while the USDJPY pair is lacking lustre, still stuck here at the mid 104’s as momentum readings suggest an imminent breakdown:

The ASX200 reopened more successfully this time but only managed a 0.2% climb higher, closing at 6498 points while the Australian dollar absorbed the latest RBA minutes but was unable to breach its Friday night highs and remains just shy of the 73.20 level going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are waning with not much momentum here on the four hourly chart of the S&P500, which still shows price wanting to beat the October highs which are acting as strong resistance:

The economic calendar includes US retail sales and industrial production numbers and not much else.

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Comments

    • pfh007.comMEMBER

      Must be only a matter of minutes before NaturalTrust arrives from the bleachers.

      It is has been fun this afternoon watching all the land wealth speculators emerge from the wood work with their predictable self serving lines.

      “This change will give a big bucket of extra cash to home buyers who will bid house prices to the MOON”.

      If there is one thing that the land owners hate it is extra taxes on their property holdings.

      Considering how much government expenditure is connected to supporting the value of land it is an excellent idea to require land owners to contribute more to the cost of those services in regular annual or quarterly amounts.

      Of course they can easily avoid this great BIG NEW TAX by selling their land holdings.

        • pfh007.comMEMBER

          Stewie,

          That is definitely the sensible approach but it is no match for the rat cunning of the Treasurer.

          The change doesn’t affect the mob who already own land so they will not care and keep quiet.

          And for property buyers they get to choose.

          In a couple of years he will come for you “owners” by announcing that paying stamp duty only buys you a limited exemption which in your case has now expired.

    • Well Victoria now has political cover to do it as well.

      On the NSW proposal the government is trying to save money in the short term and so will only apply it to properties up to the 80th percentile of NSW properties. If you apply that cut off (I don’t actually know where it is but maybe someone at MB does) I reckon half or more of Sydney houses will be excluded from it – that is, they will continue to pay upfront stamp duty.

      Plus it is a prospective policy so the encouragement for downsizing for retirees living in big houses is quite minimal.

  1. So virus has passed and blue skies ahead huh? Would seem so given the AFR weekend headline and the general way markets are moving. MB seems to have toned down its doomsday tone as well. Financial engineering really does solve all problems in the most magical ways !!!

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      UE and Peta Credlin may have to team up to put the boot in to SA LNPer Steve Marshall if SA turns pears shaped? But I won’t hold my breath for that boot.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Oh I’m sorry. I’m so used to you peddling leftist rhetoric, I just assumed you were doing it here too.

          • What left – ???? – neoliberal right wing and neoliberal labour …. its just markets markets markets … the woke stuff is just like smoking gives freedom to suffragettes … after the tobacco industry had achieved peak male market share … chortle …

        • Global warming melting the glaciers and ice sheets will massively change the gravitational pressures on the ocean sea floor through vast increases in melt water.

          That will entirely shift the current pressures on tectonic plates and in so doing force both a huge increase in earth quakes and volcanic activity.

          This has been seen and measured consistently through geological history during periods of rapid sea level changes.

          Increases in volcanic and earthquake activity was one of the very first issues to be put on the table as it is so well known, understood and accepted –

          by scientists – so you obviously would find it hard to swallow.

          Knowledge often causes the gormless indigestion.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Equal pressure over nearly the entire earth. Meaning the subducted plate is subject to the same pressure.

            I’m calling BS.

          • @TB, agree re increasing oceanic pressure. Reduced pressure in places that have had significant ice over land – different story. I’m thinking places like Greenland, Iceland, the Scandinavian countries, Antarctica, Patagonia and the like could all be “interesting” places to live in the next few decades…

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      C’mon, it’s a moral to be cancelled. But this way I keep slightly healthy and the entry money will be carried over to the next years’ when I may be skint. Think of it as future spending, like savings used to be.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I think these days you are supposed to put it on afterpay and die during the event (that the afterpay purchase was for) thereby precluding the need to ever repay the principle.

        Alternatively you could convert to Islam after racking up as much debt as you can and then just flee the country.

        That’s what “Run to paradise.” is about right?

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Mining,
          focus on the goal. Just treat it with a blasé attitude and only commit to continuing to starting the training telling yourself ” I’ll only do a light one” . Whatever your weekly program just start each day with the idea of taking it easy.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            That’s all I’m doing. Since the little heart scare I’ve started from scratch, following the MAF method and keeping my heart rate in the 125-130 range to build a better base. Slow as getout but after a few months I’m really enjoying it.

            https://philmaffetone.com/what-is-maf/

            Running and riding it works really well, swimming I’m not sure yet because I haven’t been in a pool since March. Start that tomorrow. I’ll only start doing speed sessions if the races look like going ahead. I just make up the numbers anyhow so it doesn’t matter.

  2. NEW ZEALAND: WHY IS THE ARDERN GOVERNMENT STILL EFFECTIVELY BANNING THE CONSTRUCTION OF DESPERATELY NEEDED AFFORDABLE HOUSING ? …

    ‘Staggering’ interest in Auckland property as Trade Me’s latest figures highlight skyrocketing prices … TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/staggering-interest-in-auckland-property-trade-mes-latest-figures-highlight-skyrocketing-prices

    … extract …

    … Trade Me Property spokesperson Logan Mudge said there continues to be strong demand for property in the region, with listing views up a “staggering” 22 per cent on 2019.

    “From what we are seeing, record low interest rates and the need for more space appear to be fueling the market in the region,” Mudge said.

    “After two lockdowns this year, Aucklanders appear to be in a race for space, with many Kiwis reconsidering their lifestyles and looking for bigger homes.”

    Those bigger homes, with more than five bedrooms, saw the largest jump in average asking prices, up 13 per cent to $1,534,350 in October, while smaller one to two bedroom units saw the average price rise 4.5 per cent to $641,450.

    “Supply simply isn’t meeting demand in the region with the number of properties on the market up just four per cent on October 2019,” Mudge said. … VIEW & READ more via hyperlink above …

    … as housing becomes increasingly unaffordable … Interest Co NZ updated Median Multiple Table for October … Auckland now a staggering 10.1 times annual household incomes ! …

    Median Multiples … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Ah yes, Jacksonville. Buried herself she did. Good times. The lion of the union movement.

      I forget which female journo it was who won a walkley by ignoring this sordid tale even though the whole story was dumped on her desk just because it didn’t suit her political agenda. Gratten? McClymont?

      Edit: $100k? Musta done a deal somewhere. The numbers were way bigger 10 years ago.

    • Didn’t buy goldies, but were listening when you mentioned nickel and the fact that the market overreacted to WSA’s bad news. Now up over 8% in 2 weeks. Saw directors buying the dip and said me too.

    • Not touched the goldies yet – still waiting on that swan dive.

      May get back into ALK though when the time comes. And some more WSA … and a few others.

      • I didn’t go big but did top up in GOR, SBM, NCM and did buy few ALK. I too think there could be another move down but I am also starting to think that this is that fall and we may not be realising. The Moderna news did not trigger same sell off in gold Phizer did. We’ll find out tonight as Oz miners did behive in a way expecting gold to fall fair bit tonight. I kind of did not agree so decided to buy few.

    • I’ve held GOR, ALK, SAR, OGC through the storm. I’m down on a few and up on others. More down than up to be honest. I’ll hold these and not add to them for now. I’ve been collecting a few of TMT, PPK, and TLG which have made up for it though. Up biggly on these. Also, a hot tip for anyone that wants a punt, check out IMU, it’s just up and up and patent after patent, approval after approval. Not invest,ent advice obviously but check the announce,Mets, look at the major shareholders and then look at the price movement.

      I also bought LOV when it was way down and have cleaned up nicely on that one. Who would have thought that young girls buying cheap, shiny trinkets would be the first retail to recover? (Hint: me) haha

  3. “to replace the UK’s fleet of cars (currently 31.5 million) entirely
    with EVs, it would require “just under two times the total annual world cobalt production, nearly the
    entire world production of neodymium, three quarters the world’s lithium production and at least
    half of the world’s copper production during 2018”
    https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4839

    …and this little tit bit is just UK’s private car fleet…
    but yeah, zero net carbon 2050 all round cos its unlimited clean & green and every man-bun latte-sipper said Greta is right!

    The only way humanity will get anywhere near net zero carbon come 2050 is if a good few billion humans happen to die suddenly between now and 2050… exponential population growth sailing past 8,000,000,000 will simply never permit a net zero carbon emissions existence on earth.

    So, I’ve been thinking, when will population be put front and centre of the anthropogenic CC debate? Surely any debate that ignores population is about as useful as a claw hammer in a gun fight? I wish they’d join the fvcking dots, I really do

    • “The only way humanity will get anywhere near net zero carbon come 2050 is if a good few billion humans happen to die suddenly between now and 2050… exponential population growth sailing past 8,000,000,000 will simply never permit a net zero carbon emissions existence on earth.”

      Thanos had it right.

    • “So, I’ve been thinking, when will population be put front and centre of the anthropogenic CC debate?” – already has been. Why do you think you won’t be able to sue any pharma once you get your mandatory vaccine? All of a sudden people become sterile – problem solved. Carbon neutral by 2050.

      • Shortly after Biden takes office.
        Of course the voting fraud is so obvious that I’m starting to wonder if this might be a Qanon sting against the cabal!
        Would be par for the 2020 course.

    • So, I’ve been thinking, when will population be put front and centre of the anthropogenic CC debate? Surely any debate that ignores population is about as useful as a claw hammer in a gun fight? I wish they’d join the fvcking dots, I really do

      Because – assume an approach even vaguely ethical and practical – it’d take a century or more and we need significant change in decades ?

      Imagine if the whole world stopped making babies for twenty years.

      Population would go from ~7.8b to ~6.5b, or roughly where it was in 2005.

      Climate change cannot be addressed in a useful timeframe via population, outside – as you say – of _billions_ of people dying quite suddenly.

    • @ Bendy Wire Yep. The ‘green revolution’ just another giant Ponzi. Population the elephant nobody will acknowledge.

      The only way to reduce emissions is to reduce consumption – akka human die off, as we’ll never agree to do with less of anything.

      • If Covid has taught me anything, it’s that I can live with less. Sure travel is great, but for me I get more fullfillment from achieving things than acquiring things.

        • chuckmuscleMEMBER

          Mrs muscle and I have done similar. Pre WuFlu we had decided to do less air travel, the changes this year have just made it less fomo feelings.
          But in reality, most cities are the same, the food differs but unless you get out into regional areas, 80% of any city is the same world over. I’ve done a lot of travel for personal and business, vastly different budgets, and nothing will ever beat the first time I went overseas or the backpacking experience of meeting complete strangers and being almost broke while doing it. Everything since then has been on the scale of diminishing returns, in spite of an increase in daily dollar spend while travelling now. Goes to your point about living with less I think.

          So I’m with you Gavin, getting my kicks out of simple local holidays and using my extra money and time to make things. That said I’m getting older and if I have kids, will be encouraging them to travel, especially while young, because there was nothing more depressing in those European hostels than the 35+ yo Aussie trying to relive his youth.

          • Damn that 35 year old Aussie could be me. But I look 26 so nobody would know. My best travel experiences were Syria / Jordan on my own and not doing typical tourist things, but just learning as I went. Africa was also great seeing nature and the wilderness. Morocco was fun also in $200 beater cars crossing the desert. Travelling with a tight budget and roughing it sometimes sucked at the time, but travelling for work I’d be in this bubble of hotels, conferences and high end bars and clubs.

            It could be anywhere in the world, but it always felt same same. The best times I had was when I ditched all that and did something outside of it. When I was flown to Macau I skipped the big sales conferences and aircon rooms for doing my own tour with a couple of work mates. Nobody noticed we were gone either. It was pretty funny actually.

            When I went to Buenos Aires I managed to get my work mate out of the hotel and we saw lots of great stuff out of the cities. He said he had 1 of the best times in his life. Poor beggar was half way through a rough divorce. He still calls me to check in from time to time.

            With depression rates through the roof, suicides, social media keeps us skeptical and apart. No wonder we feel so down. More time spent building relationships and friends, but also meaningful moments with family and neighbours is now more important than ever.

        • I’ve not been overseas since a year spent motorcycling around Europe in my twenties as not long after I realised the planet was in a bad way. Long time ago now, but everything I read then has come to pass with bells on. Every flight from Oz to NY is the equivalent of destroying a sq meter of antarctic ice. But so much more than tourism and the air industry will go away of their own accord in the coming decade as resources continue to deplete, the main one being oil, which quite possibly peaked in 2018 – and the Green revolution fails to eventuate for the same reason.

          So yes, we will return to making do, compromising, growing stuff and working by hand, as we’re out of other options and it’s unlikely technology, minus resources, will provide at this late stage, but it may be a way of connecting again with lives that are more enjoyable and meaningful than the 200 year blip of industrialization/tourism and mass consumption that has destroyed the planet.

          Trouble is the road down will be majorly bumpy and unpleasant. And life threatening for billions.

  4. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    The NSW stamp duty changes are optional when purchasing.

    Meaning it makes all housing 2% cheaper, which can then be geared 20 times, making housing more expensive…wwwhhhaaaa?

    LNP have very high skills in selling sht sandwiches. So far a poll is over 60% in support of the option. Straya.

  5. Spoke to a developer yesterday about bank funding issues.

    No confidence in Morrison’s SME loans – apparently it’s impossible for them to get the 250k loan from any bank – they’re not interested in developer finance as it’s not as profitable compared to 30 year home loans. Big 4 also consider builders as too high risk so they’re at the mercy of the third tiers.

    Told that on a recent project they had to borrow close to a million from private lenders to complete it – lenders also wanted the interest paid up front – over 250k. The kicker is that the sales valuation came up at 22% less than recent sales and 30% less than expected price – 2m+.

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