Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

 

Vaccine volatility continues to pullback extremely overbought markets across the region – save Japan – with the USD gaining strength against most of the majors going into tonight’s inflation report. Gold is still under enormous pressure here after its big retracement, up slightly after revisiting its extreme lows at the $1869USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is pulling back yet again, this time down 0.2% going into the close, currently at 3334 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off a similar amount, down 0.3% to be at 26156 points. Japanese stock markets continue to pick up speed though with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.5% higher to 25480 points while the stallout in the USDJPY pair has continued as it rollsover towards the 105 handle:

The ASX200 fell back just under 0.5% to close at 6418 points after being overbought for so long while the Australian dollar remains steadfast here just below the 73 handle as it consolidation phase post the vaccine news continues:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are in a slight retracement mode with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still stabilising here just above the October highs at the 3500 point level but short term momentum is waning, so watch for support to come under pressure:

The economic calendar includes 2 major inflation releases, first from Germany and then US, followed by even more ECB speeches again.

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Comments

    • was never gonna happen. no one is going to spend a billion in fnq and make money out of it.
      tourist properties turnover all the time and $100m development is a big deal.
      should have heard the collective org8sms in cairns when aquis said they were going to spend $8b, (and literally double the amount of hotel accom in the city) then it was $4b, then they got their Canberra casino license or some thing ……. and gone. still a flood prone cane paddock.
      Singapore dude who built 2 hotels recently is getting raked.
      first to bust, last to boom. job keeper/seeker central

      • The kids still ask why we can’t go back and have mocktails by the pool. I’ve shown them the pictures. The other island resorts seem to survive the cyclones fine though.

        • Survival is a matter of perspective
          Hayman and daydream got beaten up pretty well, and been rebuilt. but whitsundays have a better rep for island holidays I guess. They will get hit again though, cyclones are moving south.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Next time they ask, if the missus isn’t in the room, tell ’em it’s because she had an accident in the pool and you can’t stay there any more.

          Then next time, when they want to go somewhere you don’t, you can use the same excuse AND follow it up with “… but don’t tell her, she’ll be embarrassed.”.

          Yes, I know. Brilliantly evil eh?
          Fortunately for humanity, I usually only use my powers to protect the innocent and the unwary.
          (ps this really only works if your other half is female – please don’t blame me for society’s normative gender biases that make it funny for a guy to take a dump in a pool by accident)

          • He drives down from Cairns and then catches a boat across. It’s his weekend get away. I’m not sure if the water taxi still runs from South Mission. That is how we all used to get ferried across from the caravan park.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Dunk should have stayed as a nice little place for locals and those not looking for something too flash. Same as Great Keppel. Geez, who could forget fun times on the Denison Star out of Yeppoon, rolly-pollying out to GK while watching backpackers gear get washed over the side. Nobody cared, everyone was drunk

        • Yep, but we’re international now doncha know ?
          Beer filled bongo van trips to airlie were the go too, in the late 80’s.
          Backpackers we’re new then, but lots of good aussie & kiwi girls gave them a run for their money.

        • The boom net. I was only in single digits in the 80s but remember it well. Was too young to be allowed on it. Man it looked fun! Just as you described though seen through the eyes of a child. I remember thinking that the men were behaving funny. Now it all makes sense. Just like the navy shirts with white writing saying, ‘I got wrecked on Great Keppel Island’ Oh, and the big banana getting towed around by the ski boat.

        • Same as Great Keppel. Geez, who could forget fun times on the Denison Star out of Yeppoon, rolly-pollying out to GK while watching backpackers gear get washed over the side. Nobody cared, everyone was drunk

          My old stomping ground. Fvck me I sank some piss at that place. Still have a couple of proper glass beer jugs I pilfered from the Wreck Bar just before everything went plastic in the ’90s – I break them out on the (increasingly) rare occasion the original crew gets back together and mix up an Illusion.

          Nothing quite like coming to on the beach with the incoming tide around your waist. Or standing in ankle-deep water flowing through the bar during a summer storm because the drainage was so terrible (or getting back to the house and finding the same storm had swept half the tents into the corner of the back yard). Or laughing at some poor fvcker who’d gotten so sunburnt nearly his whole body was redder than the Submit button. Good times.

          Used to get back occasionally as a mate’s family owns a house on GK (he got married there about 6 months before the resort shut), but not for probably 5-6 years now. The resort looked like something out of a zombie film the last time we were there. Eg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDcBLnpJ2Lw&ab_channel=GavinMack70 (not my video)

          The Japs (Iwasaki/Rydges/Mercure) shut up shop in the mid-2010s as well, though one of the golf courses is still open (usually go for a round when we’re home). The Japanese restaurant carried on for a couple more years as well from memory – it was very good. We stayed a few nights there probably 6 months before it shut down completely and already half the buildings/rooms were already locked up, the tennis courts were overgrown and unusable, etc, etc.

          I remember riding me old BMX out to the resort with mates and sneaking in to swim in the pool (and the slide!) when I was a lad (and inevitably having to do a runner BMX Bandits style when the staff recognised us). More good times.

          Now it’s just derelict:
          https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/this-used-to-be-one-of-australias-most-luxurious-resorts-it-now-sits-eerily-abandoned-and-derelict/news-story/62feccc74ba02c73c27d2ecae77eb156
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkXYN2iTz84&ab_channel=LukeBarnes

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Yes for EU. Victoria has provided a template. No for US. Governors in some US states cannot mandate masks for fear of stirring further social unrest.

    • Europe Probably. US Maybe.
      Always count on the US to do the right thing after they’ve exhausted all the wrong things to do first.
      Mask mandate will come first, if Biden gets sworn in. IF!
      Oh and 200K more dead Americans between now and then.

      • First, I find it hilarious that anyone is complaining about Biden’s age or fitness. He could probably run around Trump’s golf cart for 18 holes or so…oh and that walking ar#ehole Mitch McConnell is older than Biden and just got re-elected for six more years…
        Anyway, yeah nah – Trump will try everything he can to steal it.
        I haven’t changed my mind on that. Wait for the electors election on 14th December…

        • Goldstandard1MEMBER

          Hang on Hang on. Is it trying to steal it if there are less than 100K votes in 4 key states in a country of 190m people that decides that president and there is enough smoke to thoroughly investigage if it’s legitimate. Just because some powerful ppl want it, does not mean it is democratically true.

          I’m no trump fan but there is a lot of thick smoke here. Please do not dismiss this. If it happened here I would want it looked at with fine tooth comb.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            It’s possible, but given that pretty much everything has been laughed out of court so far do you really think the smoke is that thick?

          • And all the nonexistent smoke happens to be in states Trump narrowly lost like Georgia and Nevada but not the ones he narrowly won like North Carolina, and it’s just a coincidence Trump has been flogging this horse for months even before there was any possibility of smoke.
            The only fraud is that the social media giants continue to allow this stuff to be posted.

          • Yep. There’s no credible evidence of any out and out fraud. Its all been laughed out of court so far, as the lawyers representing Trump don’t want to be disbarred by lying in front of a judge when there’s no hard evidence.
            The only smoke is because of the unprecedented number of mail in ballots due to mainly Democrat voters who were rightly worried they could catch COVID at the polls.
            Its not rocket surgery FFS.
            5 million more Americans voted for Biden than Trump. Not that that matters either.

          • barring a 100,000, if biden gets 4.5 to 5m more votes on agg, and loses then system is broken alright.

            the us is being played. basically trump thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room, and is playing with his dumbest of supporters, and thinks they will do his bidding when asked to

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            Also – whoever was taking minutes when they were putting this whole election fraud conspiracy together should really have taken it on themselves to write in ‘oh and also make sure to get the senate while we are at it’ if everyone went to all that effort and actually forgot about it.

            I mean – it’s a conspiracy involving thousands of people, where no one has cracked, let anything slip while drunk or told a lover. Where they made sure their presidential candidate got over the line in what looks like a closely contested elected, but they all just forgot to fix the senate races as well.

      • Jumping jack flash

        “Europe Probably. US Maybe”

        +1
        I cant see how the US wont lock down now after all the criticism that Trump had over his non-handling of it. He obviously didnt see it as an issue at all. Seemingly millions dead, enthusiastically reported by the media.

        The new guy has to do something to live up to expectations. And there is only one thing to do that is actually effective.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          You would be amazed at the number of previously unseen options that reveal themselves immediately upon logic being removed from the equation. It’s quite shocking and disturbing at first, but after a while you begin to enjoy the mayhem and possibilities for Nelson (Simpsons, not Trafalgar)-like observations of others’ inevitable failures that ensue. Brought to you by the makers of “Don’t buy a house now.” and “Vale Domain.”.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      US will be staggered by state/Counties. Will be in targeted measures until it gets too bad. It is very quickly getting very, very bad in a lot of states. As cases rise/hospitals fill, I imagine it gets politically easier/imperative to act as the majority of constituents start to lean toward some sort of action. Full, Melbourne style lockdowns unlikely though, perhaps a few state/counties will- NY has shown it has the cohesion to pull off a hard lockdown.

  1. “Mr Andrews’ approval, those who are satisfied with his performance minus those who are dissatisfied, improved by 24 per cent on a net basis from October to November. About 71 per cent of those polled approve of his leadership, up from 59 per cent, while 29 per cent disapprove, down from 41 per cent”.

    Murdoch must be spewing at the moment. People can finally see through it.

  2. Ref U.S. election …. per St. Carlin …

    George Carlin’s take on the great unwashed American public:

    Now, there’s one thing you might have noticed I don’t complain about: politicians. Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don’t fall out of the sky. They don’t pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It’s what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you’re going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. Term limits ain’t going to do any good; you’re just going to end up with a brand new bunch of selfish, ignorant Americans. So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it’s not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here… like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. There’s a nice campaign slogan for somebody: ‘The Public Sucks. Fck Hope.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      You a bit more depressing than usual today Skip,…do you need a hug brother?

      As for “Well, where do people think these politicians come from? ”
      Are not a large percentage of our pollies, esp US ones, former lawyers?
      A much bigger cause of the perceived universal Slimieness of our politicians than that much maligned lack of Melanin.

      • No thanks doing fine, all three older kids have good jobs and youngest looks to have an apprenticeship with volvo, dogs are great, so that only leaves wife’s [soon ex] condition and father in law looking like he’s finally casting off [good innings tho] to offset.

        I thought Carlin’s assessment was an honest account and not depressing at all, I mean its not like supply side funded Bernays PR Marketing: see ‘Century of the Self’ atomistic individualism now up graded by AIgo driven full immersion media devices or anything …

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