Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Vaccine volatility has abated in mixed fashion across the region with Chinese shares unsettled, with not much action on currency markets except Kiwi which jumped on the RBNZ meeting.  Gold is still plodding on after its big retracement, currently up slightly to the $1881USD per ounce level, still way off its prebreakdown high:

The Shanghai Composite is having another scratch session, currently down a handful of points at 3360 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is only a handful of points higher, currently at 26312 points. Japanese stock markets are picking up speed though with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.7% higher to 25323 points, back to 1991 levels! Meanwhile the huge lift in the USDJPY pair has continued its stallout just above the 105 handle:

The ASX200 has put in a much better session today, climbing 1.7% higher to close at 6449 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar had a small peak-a-boo above the 73 handle as it begins to move out of its consolidation phase post the vaccine news:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are still in pause mode after a small retracement on Wall Street overnight, although the four hourly chart of the S&P is stabilising here just above the October highs at the 3500 point level:

The economic calendar includes several ECB speeches to watch out for tonight, including from President LaGarde.

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Comments

  1. Irrational bull market technicals driven buy irrational printing by CBs to flood markets with more debt (public and private) to drive all asset prices to the stratosphere. Off to the bank to borrower as much money as possible at sub 2% (2 payslips and $1000 in expenses for the month). Gear up my friends into the the new world of MMT.

  2. A remarkable story …

    The Husband-and-Wife Team Behind the Leading Vaccine to Solve Covid-19 … David Gelles … The New York Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/business/biontech-covid-vaccine.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    The German company BioNTech, founded by two scientists, has teamed up with Pfizer on a vaccine that was found to be more than 90 percent effective.

    Two years ago, Dr. Ugur Sahin took the stage at a conference in Berlin and made a bold prediction. Speaking to a roomful of infectious disease experts, he said his company might be able to use its so-called messenger RNA technology to rapidly develop a vaccine in the event of a global pandemic.

    At the time, Dr. Sahin and his company, BioNTech, were little known outside the small world of European biotechnology start-ups. BioNTech, which Dr. Sahin founded with his wife, Dr. Özlem Türeci, was mostly focused on cancer treatments. It had never brought a product to market. Covid-19 did not yet exist.

    But his words proved prophetic. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Extraordinary piece crafted from rather different agendas. I would just caution by saying that biotech has a bad rep for good reasons, and nobody has yet explained to me what “90% effective” means. This was a press release, not a peer-reviewed piece.
      tldr: trust, but verify

      • Yeah. The Pfizer thing was an outstanding piece of bullshido, probably aimed at allowing those in the know to make bank in equities markets. I’m not having any more kids (deity willing) but I went to school with a thalidomide girl who had two little vestigial flippers with two vestigial fingers each instead of arms and hands. Fck biotech… they’re not putting that shit in me.

          • I dont think it is, is healthcare making the transition from analog to digital. War gave us semi conductors. Covid has come along at the right time to transition us away from injecting dead virus and crudely made man mongrel virus. Dont think I’ll be near the front of the queue but could be a significant step away from the barbarism of surgery, chemo, radiation therapies and the furthering of more regenerative healthcare.

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Yeh, I’ll wait until the look at the data over another 35,000 cases, not just 95 or whatever. Company press releases tend not to focus on the negatives for some reason..

          Anyway it’s instructive that much of the market takes any hint of good news as extremely bullish and completely disregards bad news. I feel like we been here before.

        • Good point. Intergenerational effects of new biotech is not being discussed. That whole thalidomide thing was just appalling. This drugs latest results are due out in 3 weeks from a sample size of 50k plus across various age groups. I fully expect unless someone dies it will be rolled out early next year. But yeah wonder if pregnant women should avoid this for now.

        • Thalidomide was developed and first released by the German pharmaceutical company Chemie Grünenthal in 1953. The company had been established as a soap maker after World War II to address the urgent market need for antibiotics. Chemist Heinrich Mückter, who was a known Nazi war criminal, was appointed to head the discovery programme based on his experience researching and producing an anti-typhus vaccine for Nazi Germany.

          The total number of people affected by the use of thalidomide during the mother’s pregnancy is estimated at more than 10,000, of whom approximately 40 percent died at or shortly after the time of birth. Those who survived had limb, eye, urinary tract, and heart defects. Its initial entry into the US market was prevented by Frances Kelsey at the FDA. The birth defects of thalidomide led to the development of greater drug regulation and monitoring in many countries

      • She’s spending a long time warming up very loudly indeed. The audience can hear clearly, but she hasn’t sung her appointed lines yet. What is disappointing but not surprising is that Trump is not reciprocating the courtesies that Obama gave him and his transition group in 2016, which in turn reflected the courtesies that George W Bush gave him in 2008. Both Obama and W knew when to put country first, and Trump has had opportunities to do so and never followed through (bone spurs, tax avoidance for starters) his entire adult life.

    • That isn’t an off the wall take at all.
      It is very close to what Keynes proposed under Bancor, where creditor countries would have their excess bancor assets charged interest (negative yield) at up to 10%, to force them to clear the balances.
      Negative yielding Treasuries is a very good idea.

  3. The eerie silence from the liberal elite in Washington sort of suggests that the autogolpe attempt is real.
    If it was real you would attempt to play it down and not draw attention to it. Hopefully is not the case.

  4. Democracy to the rescue! Petition to Parliament to add elderly Indian parents to list of people allowed to enter Australia

    https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/petition-to-consider-parents-as-immediate-family-members-presented-in-parliament

    And there are an enormous amount of people in Australia, who were born overseas, whose parents still live overseas, who are suffering enormous emotional and mental health stress because of this

    Melbourne-resident Harjot Singh is taking care of his sick father in India after his mother’s death

    He wants to bring his father to Australia, but the ‘Immediate family member’ rule does not allow him.

    “It is not just me,” he says.

    “There are thousands of people who need their parents in Australia due to various reasons but they cannot for this rule which needs to be changed.”

    Sounds great!!

    Let’s get that sick elderly Indian man over here ASAP!!!

    Also, I would add there are an enormous number of wh_teys who are suffering a severe lack of death stares in the street

    So, where do I sign??

    • Wouldn’t you move back to India rather than expect a country to overhaul its laws? How selfish can you be as a son to not move back to your home country to look after family.

    • Just as many whinging milky poms, canucks, beaners and yanks saying the same thing, not just a Subcontinental thing. Reminds of old anti lockdown charlie posting here that the lockdown should end just so he could visit his parents. I hate this whole move somewhere and then try and bring your entire old life with you, people should be moving os for the right reasons and knowing that maybe it means not seeing family ever again. They’re meant to be emigrating for their and our mutual benefit, not advance shore parties to set up a new colony.

      Just like this South American fella at work, useless type, apparently has trade and tertiary quals from home country, but completely useless. Not sure what visa he got in on but probably some skills shortage, now working full time in an entry level role outside his qualifications that an Aussie kid could be doing and studying some bs masters. Randomly started milking a bunch of sick days, bam, 2 weeks notice, got a new job somewhere else. Good riddance. Read his linkdin profile, hilarious, never seen so much waffle to explain warehousing, I think his new employers are going to be disappointed.

      Also always whinging about how hard it is to get his missus over here. So sick of the shore party immigration.

      • ^This^
        To pinch an observation, there are only two races of people; those who are decent and those who are not. To focus upon one group of people who are out for themselves and accept the others because they are a teeny tiny bit more like us just let’s the selfish among us get away with their dodges for longer.

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      I was at my local out patient’s for an appointment a few days ago and Indian lady walks in with her very old mother with a velcro back brace on and was shuffled in straight away to see one of the doctors. I thought to myself who is paying for this and how much tax has that mother payed in this country and also who’s medicare card was being used ?
      You know, I’m not ra!*st but adding the SBS story to everything else I have experienced I have come to the conclusion that “they” are trying real hard to make me that way.

  5. My mother-in-law in Shanghai was due to go on a trip today, but it was cancelled because Shanghai is now ‘Code Red’ : that’s the Chinese colour coded system for COVID-19 risk. There are two locally transmitted cases today in Shanghai.

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