Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Vaccine volatility has provided various opportunities across risk markets here in Asia following the Pfizer announcement overnight that saw European markets surge 5% or more. Share markets are all up but not at the same levels as Wall Street had a more realistic tone, while undollar assets have given up a lot of their overnight gains as well. One of the biggest casualties was gold, which fell nearly $100USD an ounce to a monthly low before rebounding today to be at the $1882USD per ounce level, still well off its recent high:

The Shanghai Composite is having a scratch session, currently up a handful of points going into the close at 33, up nearly 2% at 3376 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is moderating somewhat, up only 0.8% after a big start to be at 26226 points. Japanese stock markets are also sanguine with the Nikkei 225 barely closing 0.2% higher at 24871 points while huge lift in the USDJPY pair overnight has seen a small retracement back to just below the 105 handle – aka where we were the last two weeks:

The ASX200 has put in a modest 0.6% rise after looking to be up over 2%, still a good session, closing at a new high at 6340 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar missed out on most of the volatility overnight with a very tight session that keeps it below the 73 handle as momentum wanes:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are showing a solid retracement of the epic big run ups from overnight, with the four hourly chart of the S&P showing a move back down to the October highs just above 3500 point level after being up nearly 3% overnight:

The economic calendar includes the closely watched German ZEW Survey, then a few Federal Reserve speeches to keep an eye on.

Apologies for no Macro Morning today, after taking my boisterous German/Belgian shepherd for her daily run yesterday, I’ve ended up tearing my achilles tendon. For those of you who know how painful that is, yeah, I was in no state to comment on last nights equally boisterous moves! Back to bed for me….

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Comments

    • The shiny just refuses to have a proper puke – a few days in the low 1800s (or perhaps mid 17s) would be great.

      • I did buy few more NCM, GOR and SBM today. Also back into CEL but very few. Their last announcement is better than market resognised.

        • Btw, Polar Ex Presented at the Read Corporate Resources conference today. My mate wasn’t wildly impressed – just FYI. Thinks they’ve made very little progress – can only drill for 6 months of the year so that’s a drag too.

          • thanks Dom. Realy apreaciate the update. Their scarn discovery may lead to larger porphyry deposits – this is why I still hold. Zackly scarn is very extensive (in terms of strike and could/should lead direct to porphyry intrusion) and their ground is literary surrounded by world class deposits.
            Agree with PXX’s limited window to drill. Next drilling campaign starts in May/June. They need JV partner with money to drill for the porphyry deposits as that costs lot of money. If they have to drill just one hole again during next season then they have to be really lucky to hit high grade core.
            I really really like their ground. Can’t help it.. HODL for now.
            But, without JV partner they will struggle unless they are exceptionally lucky.

        • Appreciate your feedback too — I’ll pass that on. I agree that if you’re prospecting in the general area of other world class deposits then the odds are much more in your favour.

  1. Hey ermo

    Any advice on finding our water meter?

    I can’t find it anywhere. What should I look for, can’t see any pipes going in from the front.

    ta

    harry.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Turn your water on full bore out the back yard then go to the front and listen for the ticking sound.
      Signed Ermo imposter.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      First hour is $165 inc GST
      This includes $55 call charge.
      But if you live in an apartment block, East of the Gladesville Bridge or South of the Parramatta river then there is an additional $300 surcharge.
      But if I find it in the first 5 mins and because its you Harry,…then it’s only a case of Beer.
      None of that low or mid strength shyte but.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Damm, shoulda realized the perfect opportunity for the two titans of MB to meet/clash and entertain us with the feedback.

  2. The Trump team is so effing stoopid every time they claim to have evidence of voter fraud its always in whole numbers – 17,000 here, 9000 there, 190000 all up…

    And Shilly Griffin just spews it back up.

  3. Re Four Corners last night – did anyone else get the impression that there were more explosive revelations that weren’t aired?

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      If you empty the chamber at the first battle, everyone knows you’re empty. There’ll be some scandal hidden away as leverage.

    • my take is ABC is holding more evidence and they just set the trap for Scummo and his ministers to take it. Now that they took the hook, line and the sinker it is time for ABC to air the evidence. It will be waste of time for ABC to go through all this without having more dirt. If I was running ABC I would not allow it as there was fir bit of accusations without any evidence. Especially the SHY’s story. But I think the girl in question probably came forward and ABC will air it in the coming days.

      • Yeah that was my sense. Porter certainly took the bait with his defamation threat. If he doesn’t go through with it now, people will know he’s “guilty”. If he does and the ABC has more evidence, he’s genuinely rooted.

    • I felt they want to make more concrete accusations i.e. of something criminal, but the people they needed to back them up got cold feet so it was a very watered down version of what was originally planned.

      In the event, Scummo and Porter have swatted it away in a day, without even raising a sweat

      Watching it after the hyping I got the feeling of a Northern Mexico cartel hit (my comment last night was censored due to naming a specific H and K model firearm in a metaphorical reference) but today it’s like, blah blah.

      It looked weak since the most damning ‘bad attitudes to women’ stuff was > 20 years old and the most recent stuff came down to having an affair and not even breaching the Barnaby Act so woop-de-do.

      I don’t think your ABC has anything else they can use and I revert to my thesis of 24 hours ago that the cries of ‘immense political pressure’ were a hyping exercise.

      • if you are right then ABC is really more useless than I thought they are. But also Michael West was very worked up yesrterday and I am not sure he would have been if ABC only got what they showed so far and there are no plans to roll up another episode called – But Wait There Is Moar.

      • He can swat this away in a day, but eyes on will be on them like hawks and they really are pigs. That era is over….

      • That 20 year old stuff was outrageous. A couple of female nerds who never went on the pub crawl telling us their OPINIONS of him – hardly any of it first hand. HE TOLD ME HE WANTED TO DATE SMALL GIRLS WITH BIG NORGS – hello? What dude at uni doesn’t?? He was guilty of having tickets on himself and acting like any private schoolboy in the 90s at uni.

        Porter also seems to have paid for his wild ways … having racked up 2 ex Mrs. Rub’n Tudge seems like a real slimy one though … Victorians – just can’t trust them.

  4. All the best with the recovery. Thank you for soldiering on with the Macro posts. 🌝 🥾 👍🏼

  5. Trump’s game plan to victory is now clear.

    1) Justice department will launch an investigation into voter fraud in key states.
    2) Trump will ask the Supreme Court to stop the certification of votes until investigation is over
    3) Once the US Supreme Court stops the certification, the Republican state legislature can appoint the elector
    4) Trump wins the electorate vote without winning the election, or proof that voting fraud took place.

    The weakness in Trump’s plan is believing the US Supreme Court will ignore the US Constitution and kill democracy as we know it.

    • Yep. The stoopid Republicans like Ted Cruz have to bluster because they know until Trump is gone from the WH he can destroy them out of spite. He can’t do anything more to Dems and SCOTUS isn’t beholden to the fat f#ck.

      An election with no incombent is one thing but one where the incumbent gets turfed? This is going nowhere. Fast. One week tops.

      • Maybe, maybe not. This is about Serious Business – the fundamental institutions of the nation – not frivolous rights issues like abortion.

    • The US is a constitutional republic not a democracy.

      Only valid votes are counted is a fair argument I don’t know how anyone can disagree.

      • Your first sentence has absolutely nothing to do with your second.

        Also, changing persona names as quickly as an ice addict twitches, doesn’t do anything to disguise who you are when you keep regurgitating the same mindlessly transparent Qtard (h/t to Mig) 4chan BS

        • “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what they are going to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote”

          It’s not for Facebook, Twitter, Fox News or Democrats to decide what is a LEGAL vote or not.

          • It’s not for Facebook, Twitter, Fox News or Democrats to decide what is a LEGAL vote or not.

            You know the only people trying to arbitrarily decide what counts as a “LEGAL” are Trumpistas, right ?

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        Sounds like they should spend the Biden presidency cleaning up the vote then. Suggestions include:
        * removing the obviously gerrymandered congressional districts
        * mail-in balloting to be expanded and not reliant on partisan figures atop USPS
        * increasing the number of ballot dropoff points around major cities (abolition of the “one ballot box per county” decree)
        * heavy fines and jail for any political party creating fraudulent drop points
        etc etc

        Wouldn’t you agree?

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Ah, but if the Republican party is as concerned about the vote as they say… or maybe their concern is only skin deep.

    • The SC can’t rule on any state based issued until that state’s court has made a ruling. Only then can Trumpolini refer the matter to the SC

      And every state and federal level court, in red states and in blue states, has shown a strict adherence to the rule of law and a pretty decent amount of distain for the BS allegations to-date.

      • He’s a real estate developer who’s spent his life trying to find loopholes to get buildings built or keep black people out of his apartment blocks etc.. this is all just a cat and mouse game. He’s been signalling for seeks that the results were fake. In an effort to drum up support from his alternative facts supporters.

        Not to mention he has spent months trying to hamstring the postal network so postal votes would be late or not arrive. He’s a manipulator and cheat. Always has been always will be.

    • Pretty sure he can’t take anything straight to the Supreme Court, and thus far the complete and utter lack of anything even remotely resembling “evidence” (or “competence”) has stopped all attempts at the lowest courts.

  6. The conservative Fox News abruptly cut away from a live Trump campaign press conference by the White House Press Secretary as she was mid-way through accusing the Democrats of voter fraud.

    Fox host Neil Cavuto soon butted in, saying, “I just think we have to be very clear, she’s charging the other side is welcoming fraud and welcoming illegal voting”.

    “Unless she has more details to back that up, I can’t in good countenance continue showing this.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/donald-trump-accuses-fox-news-of-election-interference-in-another-sign-of-fractured-relations

    When you lose Neil Cavuto …. wheeeeeeeeeeee~~~~

    • oh my my skip ….. yes, let all of us welcome corporatised media tell us what to hear, see and believe ….

    • There is clear evidence of voter fraud. Whether or not it can change the result is another thing.

      Meanwhile the Democrats spent three years smearing Trump with the accusation of stealing the 2016 with the help of Russia. Imagine if networks cut away everything time Democrats started making ludicrous accusations about Trump colluding with Russia.

      • There is clear evidence of voter fraud.

        Not according to any of the courts it’s been put in front of so far.

        • Best bit is the U.S. Judicature has been stocked for decades with Conservatives, so I guess the claim is they all went leftie overnight ….