Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Its a day of retracement as expected across risk markets here in Asia following big surges across stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies after the US election. Traders are now gearing up for tonights US unemployment print that will likely come down at the same time Trump loses the election in  Pennsylvania. Gold has slipped after surging well above the $1950USD per ounce level but still looks solid here post the FOMC meeting where QE remains in place and might have to be expanded with a deadlocked US Senate:

The Shanghai Composite was falling fast towards the close, but has recovered somewhat to be only 0.2% lower at 3310 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session after its epic rise this week, closing 0.1% lower at 25671 points. Japanese stock markets still want to go higher though, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.9% higher at 24325 points while trading in the USDJPY pair has seen a pause in the large selloff in USD, still at a new monthly (and yearly) low at the 103.50 level:

The ASX200 has finished the week with a very solid session, closing 0.8% higher to 6190 points while the Australian dollar is steady here at the 72.60 level in a very minor retracement, able to hold on to its post election gains for now:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are pulling back in line with other risk assets but its all relative with the four hourly chart of the S&P still showing an exhaustion developing here as we all await for the counting to finally finish in the contested US election:

The economic calendar finishes this unreal week with the most important event on the calendar – US unemployment or non-farm payrolls.

Stay safe and have a good weekend!

EDIT: stuff it, we need some humour after this week – here’s some nice election memes….all balanced and fair of course!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

      • Perhaps the problem is not the 67 million-plus people but the attitudes of people who regard 67 million-plus people as “an underlying problem”.

        • I agree. I couldn’t vote for Trump because he’s too divisive to pull off that message. He’s a vile man. But some of his ideas make a lot more sense than the democrats. Too bad he never followed anything through.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          The thing is, most of those 67m people would be happy to break up and go their own way, so everyone could go about living their lives according to their own values.

          But that is not good enough for the other side, they want us to all live by THEIR values.

          That is the fundamental problem with the Culture war as typified by the ‘deplorable’ like statements and attitude so apparent and so self righteously delivered in unguarded comments – where as the ‘Right’ just see progressives as wrong, Progressives see the ‘Right” as morally wrong and therefore evil and thus justifiable to destroy, eradicate and replace.

          It is not the 67 million who voted for Trump who are the problem, but those who see them as a problem.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Which crud or comment in particular do you require explaining my special friend?

            If you are referring to the ‘Wolverine’ milita I certainly wasn’t justifying their actions – they can rot in jail for all eternity for all I care.

            I was saying they weren’t a Far Right militia but a Far Left militia. That was my sole point – they saw the Democrat congresswoman as a traitor to the LEFT, not to America. I don’t want to see them released from jail, throw the book at them.

            Put your reading glasses back on and go and take another look.

          • Nowhere in that thread do you mention they should be locked up or that what they did is wrong or anything. You completely glaze over the criminality to entrench in some bizarre process to define whether they are left or right. You can’t retroactively post back to what you think will give you credibilty or what you “meant” to say. You said what you wanted, it served your beliefs, you don’t care about rule of law or reality, you push your anti agenda and believe your pseudo science. I stand by it, zero credibilty, spud. Fck off.

          • But that is not good enough for the other side, they want us to all live by THEIR values.

            Indeed. That’s why you don’t see conservatives trying to do things like ban same sex marriage or abortion. 🙄

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            [email protected] you obtuse potato – that they deserve to be locked up or treated as criminals was something I saw as self evident.

            I didn’t realise that in order to satisfy your reptilian brain I had to preface every point I might make by condemning a vile group of wannabe LEFTIST domestic terrorists, and I certainly won’t apologise just because you mis-interpreted what I said.

            I will say it again – the sole point I was made in reference to them was that they were a Far Left milita not a Far Right. That was it, my sole point. The discussion wasn’t on how evil or wrong they were, it was on whether they were left or right.

            I certainly wasn’t defending them or justifying their actions you numpty – you’re seeing and reading stuff that wasn’t there – if you have a problem with what I said point out a specific line where you are suggesting I did say what you are implying, otherwise STFU.

          • Agreed. The progs are inherently authoritarian and want to change the world ‘for good’. A fcking horrendous bunch. Let each citizen live by their own values. But no …. the progs are true zealots. That is what this is all about. The terrifying thing is that is that the progs are so consumed by the virtue inherent in their moral position that no one else could possibly hold a valid alternative position.

          • @Dom, you didn’t even know the difference between socialism and anything else on the fckn spectrum, jog the fck on you spud claiming to know anything. You’re the fckn worst on here. Fake it til you make it doesn’t work these days mate.

          • “The thing is, most of those 67m people would be happy to break up and go their own way”

            Nope. Give them an out and they would have to find a new enemy.

          • The terrifying thing is that is that the progs are so consumed by the virtue inherent in their moral position that no one else could possibly hold a valid alternative position.

            Indeed. That’s why the overwhelmingly common reasoning for the “alternative position” on MB for the last few months – including from the people criticising others for moralising – has been some version of ‘enjoying watching/making lefties suffer’.

      • Perhaps. I think it’s more a case of A. they’ve been grossly misled over many generations to think that the GOP is a conservative, small government party that stands for America, and told that anything left of center-right is communism with a capital C, and II. the Democrats have failed repeatedly at capturing a big swathe of the vote that is truly working class and hence somewhat conservative.
        Niko – Yang is bang on correct. I hope he has some say in the party – Pelosi needs to go for sure.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Look, I’m sorry Bernie didn’t get the Dem’s nomination too. But you have to get over it.

          (Both parties suck. Obama proved that. And Hillary confirmed it.)

          • Yep, Democrats suck and that’s the real problem. They offer little for the working class. The only reason Biden is in with a chance is because Trump can be so insufferable.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Yep. There’s the Senator for Delaware, and the Senator for Silicon Valley on the ticket. Hardly the Senators for the every man and woman.
            That said, better for Australia than the current administration IMHO.

          • I'll Stir Fry You in My WokeMEMBER

            Youse carnts have this all wrong! It’s The Australian Labor party’s fault

        • What are hoping for Biden to accomplish in the next four years economically and in terms of the virus?

        • Dems in particular need to develop younger leaders that are acceptable to middle America. By 2024 Sanders, Warren, Pelosi, Biden will be finishing up. So who next? Harris has a lot to do to fill that slot.

          • AOC is the obvious answer. 35 in 2024. 😛

            Trump is 74. Warren will be 75 in 2024 (and would appear to be in substantially better health, both mentally and physically).

          • The problem for the Dems is that they are an integral part of the swamp and it’s the swamp that decides who runs. Biden is crooked, corrupt and a creature of the swamp – he’s perfect. The Bernies and Tulsis are not part of the team — their policies would rock the boat. It’s that simple.

      • A lot of those 67 million voted for basicly the MB editorial line,
        Reduce immigration and contain China.

        • Exactly.
          It’s the “Reduce immigration and contain China”, stupid.
          A lot of this whole $#!t show is about deflecting away these simple concepts. Fascists, socialists, xenophobes, Sinophobia, culture wars, AntiFa, Proudboys, defund the police, the “far right”. Oh how I love how the common peoples position (which was the center only a few years ago) is now the “far right”. Reduce immigration and contain China. Wisdom of the masses isn’t good for the profits of the 1%.

        • Hang on hang on hang on…..You’re talking policy. Don’t you know ‘orange man bad’……..So many people whose opinion I normally respect has come down with a horrible case of TDS. Makes me feel less dumb really. But also so disappointing and depressing. There is no way out of this mess with such low caliber emotional thinking from the supposed educated class.

        • FFS … trumps administration has been nothing but a program for the wealthy and reducing all rights to labour …

      • was thinking about your comments today as I was watching MYQ going down. You jinxed it. Your fault.

  1. Pauly 📡MEMBER

    Spent the day at Sydney Motor Sports Park (Eastern Creek) riding my motorbike around the track and being overtaken by retired grandpas who are faster than myself, a 30 something overweight tech worker. But at least I didn’t spend the day surfing news websites for election updates. Being humbled by old guys on motorbikes (and one dude with one leg) was a much better use of my time.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Doesn’t it depend on which leg is missing?

        Note: this is *not* a Rolf Harris reference.

      • you recall mick doohan had the thumb brake for when he couldnt use his right leg for the rear brake on his motorcycle
        it was so effective, formal protests were lodged
        but young mick was just too good.

      • Pauly 📡MEMBER

        S1000RR, he had a round metal pad/plate supported from the where the foot rest would be, with a bit of rod on a bracket making a tight 90′ turn up to under the plate.

        This plate/rest thing was just up under where my knee would be at tank height/just under the tank, probably still got some good leverage against the tank with the tank grip pad. It was maybe 20 to 30mm off the tank. About 140mm diameter. Stainless, looked fairly polished/worn from his leathers so he was probably riding it fair bit.

    • Yeah, I bet it was. Nothing like doing a few laps & finding a few limits – good for you 🙂

    • I was once out-paddled in a duel for a wave by a one-armed surfer (several times that morning, in fact) but I didn’t feel bad. She was a former pro-surfer.

          • Cool story. I doubt it 100%. Meh. You’re just not a reliable commenter going on recent postings. You tried to speak on behalf of all of Brisbane as not caring about RBG because “you had never heard of her” and therefore us brisbanites didn’t care, reality was opposite. Then you went to post endlessly about Murican politics like you were on the pulse. Very strange if you didn’t know who RGB was?

            Now you can’t even define socialism correctly. Mate, I feel like you’re playing at understanding but meh, could be wrong, whatevs, you’ve annoyed me, get fd.

        • Now you can’t even define socialism correctly. Mate, I feel like you’re playing at understanding but meh, could be wrong, whatevs, you’ve annoyed me, get fd.

          Have another cup of goon — you’ll be right 😉

          You don’t like some of the things I say — so you attack the views. I just relate a true encounter I had in the surf and you attack that too. You think I made that up? OMFG.

  2. Steve Bannon today re Anthony Fauci and FBI director Christopher Wray:

    “I’d put the heads on pikes, right, I’d put them at the two corners of the White House as a warning to federal bureaucrats. You either get with the program or you’re gone.”

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Does anyone know what the pecking order of indictments of ex-Presidents is for States and the Federal prosecutor/s?

    Asking for a friend.

    • I’ve been pretty much staying out of it. Who am I to judge them & their values? I’m not going to pretend I know the nuances of American politics or their everyday travails, MSM would’ve perverted whatever I think I know, so I’m probably stepping onto a landmine….. But I can’t abide by the arrogant thought there are 67M “problems” out there. Just as likely the other half looking down their nose may have a problem too considering who’s been doing the burning & looting so far. All extremists have the same righteous headspace while the majority centre just wonder WTF.

      Considering the number of years Dems had to do something & didn’t, can the new fella take note & heal it now, or will he just make it worse???

      The fella in charge can’t heal this & has to go – https://streamable.com/0szqf0

      I’ve got to admit to enjoying some of the TDS on screen though 🙂

    • This is all self inflicted
      was talking to a busker today, trumpet,and pretty good
      told me that this time last year, he would make nominally $100 a day.
      told me that today was better than yesterday, he made $20,
      day before he made $15
      told me the punters just have no money to spend (throw away)

        • That’s frightening. Living like there’s always a brighter future.

          But there’s logic there — if there’s little incentive to save then why not go for broke?

        • Locus of ControlMEMBER

          When you say ‘luxury’ furniture and clothing, what kind of price are we talking and how long will it be until it’s updated/ turned over/ replaced? Sometimes it’s better to get quality clothing and footwear at a cost of several hundred dollars when you know it’s going to last for years. I say this as someone who has individual items of clothing in my wardrobe that I spent up to $300, $400, $500 on and some of it’s lasted ten years plus and is worn at least once a week. I feel like I’ve gotten good value out of it and I don’t add to my wardrobe regularly. Cost per wear and all that.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I was more imaging that one of the 52 weekend trips a year to IKEA where an item requiring delivery was purchased.

          • Nike, overpriced trash.
            $2k super amart “premium” single piece lounges (max life 3 years).

            Wasted money.
            I get what you’re saying and agree in principle, but sub $50k p/a folks should be being frugal right now and all I’m seeing is BAU spend in aspiration. If Scomo and Fraudberg can’t pull a rabbit out of the hat the burst is gnna be epic….

        • HTF do you earn less than $50k and have money left to throw away on anything, even in Brisbane ?

          • Sorry if you weren’t responding to me – but here’s my answer anyway – I’m bang on $50k, should be on more but this is Brisbane and I took a massive pay cut to ensure fulltime to tide me over the recession. The majority at work are “full time casuals” who benefited from this business being open over covid and aren’t ready for the contraction that is guaranteed

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “China will have no choice but to look elsewhere if the respect necessary for cooperation is not forthcoming.”

      Now that Says it all .

      Time straya issued a warning ….

      All property and extractable resources in Australia belong to the Australian people and if the respect necessary to own or extract them under the protection of our government and laws is not forthcoming then it will be forfeited back to the rightful owners , the children of Australia ,

      But this silly prostituted nation is a tad short of
      being able to do that …..

      If this sort of warning is not cause for pause then
      dog save straya ……

      • Should you give a pig, lipstick and a mirror
        you can get yourself into very hot water when the lipstick runs out.
        Next thing you have a scrubber on your hands.
        reality exposed.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Just the ticket
            A Smurf Piss
            1 part blue curaçao
            1 part blueberry schnapps
            1 part vodka

            🤪🙃😛🤪😛🙃😆

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Remember once sitting on my lonesome in a Perth bar
            ( most sad place to be ) when this gorgeous young thing came up and said “ can I have a quick fcuk please “
            … as I was about to reply in the affirmative the barman stepped up and said “of course ”

            One part Baileys Irish Cream, One part Kahlua, One part Midori liqueur……

            Some lucky fellow probably got the benefits….
            ….Well good for him I say ..,,,

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      In China, the ‘wolf worriers’ taking charge even though the government ministry in charge disagrees with the policy. It’s similar to how the eunuchs gained power in the Ming Dynasty by saying things the Emperor likes to hear rather than the truth. It’ll soon be followed by an internal purge.

      • notice they were saying things the emperor liked to hear after they had a octave or 2 added to thier voice.
        Same same for Straya.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Lovely to see dear leader’s words on TV tonight telling us to wise up as to who is our boss?

    • yep. totally divorced from reality and addicted to wild conspiracy theories. They all experimented with a little birther movement and now they need Alex Jones injected directly into their eyeballs to feel the same buzz.

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      Re-elected george bush, believed that Iraq had WMDs and had something to do with the Saudis that enacted 9-11. They lost their minds decades ago

  4. Looking forward to this report, on those in the arena, by those shiny asses and snow flakes, safe outside the stadium.
    [Chief of Defence General Angus Campbell has received the long-awaited report into allegations of war crimes by Australian troops in Afghanistan.
    For the past four years the Inspector-General of the ADF has been examining rumours and allegations of possible breaches of the Law of Armed Conflict by members of the Special Operations Task Group in Afghanistan between 2005 to 2016.
    “I intend to speak about the key findings once I have read and reflected on the report,” General Campbell said in a statement.]

    • How about those racoons rubbing their hands about the ball of money currently in the market.
      Last time I saw this was the dot com bubble, and I didnt know enough nor had the tools to trade it.
      this time I’m right on top of it for as long as it lasts.
      (there are heaps of robin hooders losing most of their equity at the moment
      next will be the banks and super funds who trade equities, will get wiped out)

    • “… and, yes, GMO was looking stupid for still believing that valuations mattered and the gravitational pull of mean reversion would eventually work.”

      The danger is that, this time IS different. The difference being that in 2020 the entire money supply has increased by over 35% in the space of 6 (or less) months. Back in 2000, the monetary landscape was materially different — the central banks were still 8 or 9 years away from entering the fray with huge gobs of printed money. I think there is the potential for a short, sharp correction, but it will be a buying opportunity because stocks ultimately are reflection of inflation to a greater extent than they are real economic growth.

  5. Working on the car, dropped afckn socket in the engine somewhere, took ages to find it. Same spot I found it also found 2 oil filler caps and an old spark plug. Good to know the old rodeo has a secret spot lol.

  6. So I just had a nap in which I had a dream. In which…..

    I had just woken up from a nap at my mum’s place in Newy, and when I went out to the living room, watching TV was Wiley Wolf. I hadn’t noticed him as the room was dark and he was lying on the couch.

    He reminded me that I had invited him down for the weekend. Oh yeah say I.

    He looked exactly like an older Crockett from the original Miami Vice, blonder but with the same linen suit.

    So I went to fridge to look for a some wine, he said he had some (I didn’t want to be rude as I thought it would be sh!t, so offered mine). But I had forgotten to put mine in the fridge. It turns out his was OK.

    So we went out to the carport, trying to work out what to do. I was frantically trying to think of entertaining and stimulating things to talk about. It was night but there was a bright moon.

    On the fence a wallaby got caught on the barbed wire and had to wrench itself free but was bleeding. Seconds later a pack of wolves ran past the house in pursuit of the wallaby, in a flash.

    I was trying to work out how to get WW to help work on this miniature minibike I was trying to fix. I had got the carby off and was about to clean the jets.

    I said to WIley, how long are you down for? He said all weekend, I said should we have a barbecue. “Should we invite the other MB guys?” Yeah.

    I went into my mum who was in the shed “Can I have some guys over for tomorrow night for a barbecue?”

    She wasn’t very happy about it. I said it’ll only be couple of guys.

    I already had ermo and booma on the list, and we were working out who else to invite.

    Unfortunately that was when I woke up.

  7. New health risk for Victorians. After 7 consecutive double donut days with neither new COVID cases or deaths ….. we now remember that there is such as thing as too many donuts ….. 🙂

  8. This line has been cracking me up for a few minutes.

    Meanwhile, following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court, the Scottish women’s football team Glasgow City will play the entire 2020-21 season in a strip adorned with her name. In support of this gesture, the club manager stated that “We champion change and equality”. What a dilemma for Glasgow City players who favour an originalist approach to interpretation of the US Constitution.

    https://unherd.com/2020/10/what-is-the-point-of-the-national-trust/

    • 𝕮𝖍𝖎@chigrl:
      Politics are corrupt, every politician is compromised..
      the sooner you get that, the clearer things become.
      WW add, nearly every company director.

  9. This is probably pointless, but, I saw this band a few years ago and they were great, told the singer as much when I saw him afterwards. They’ve been quiet since and I’m not on socials so it’s hard to keep track of local bands when they go dark. Any of you southern musos know this mob or know what they’re up to?

    http://orsomewelles.com

  10. Joe takes a lead in Georgia and gold jumps. If Joe wins to night expect gold to pump another $50 and top $2k usd again.

  11. Set self up as moral agent; beat up merrily on others for sport guilt free (into a bl..dy mess if ya want) it’s all apple pie.

    same old, same old…