Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Yet another green day across risk markets here in Asia as all the hand wringing over the US “election” has come to naught, with all traders hitting the buy button, regardless of the outcome.  Gold has been unable to hold on to its recent swing through the $1900USD per ounce level after a retracement in the midst of the election volatility and looks like setting up for another breakout above $1910 or so:

The Shanghai Composite is surging towards the close, up 1.2% to be above 3300 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is the best in the region, up 2.7% to 25556 points. Japanese stock markets aren’t doing too bad either, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.7% higher at 24105 points while trading in the USDJPY pair has seen a large selloff in USD after the big ride yesterday, almost making a new weekly low at the 104.40 level:

The ASX200 has not escaped the upside volatility with a nice finish, closing 1.3% higher at 6139 points while the Australian dollar has solidified its gains, almost back above the 72 handle as USD selling abates somewhat:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures surged earlier but are retracing slightly going into the European open with the four hourly chart of the S&P possibly showing an exhaustion developing here as we all await for the counting to finally finish in the contested US election:

The economic calendar is Euro-centric tonight (no, wait the UK isn’t European anymore) with the BOE meeting and EU retail sales.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. You were right Chris when you replied to me last week
    ” no we won’t know the results by Wednesday night”

    • Because the USA has a weak electoral system and institutions, compared to other Western nations, with a history of vote tampering, suppression, corruption and constitutional disadvantages that are embedded in the system.
      That’s just objectively true, but I’ll probably get shot done for saying so. It seems you’re not allowed to criticise the US anymore….

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          And don’t even get me started on what Percy and Cranky got up to with the goods train cars.

      • There is something shaky going on. 90% voter turnouts or even exceeding registered voters – just not credible in a voluntary system. Three states stop counting at exactly the same time but it is not coordinated. Over 130,000 votes and none of them for Trump – statistically impossible.

      • I suddenly find myself far more interested in your opinions and disinclined to argue with you…^^

      • The need to clean up their act. Are we a trusted enough friend to have an intervention? Or give them a kick up the arse? Might be time to deploy a bit of good old Aussie “loose talk” in their direction and not just towards China. Might make China feel better if we show we “loose talk” in every direction.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Are you suggesting an AEC investigative delegation should be sent, in coalition with say German & Danish Electoral Authorities to deliver a list of recommendations? 🤩

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    From Sportsbet:

    S Presidential Election 2020

    Bets will be settled on the outcome of the 59th United States Presidential Election, bets will stand if election date is postponed/result is delayed from 3 November 2020 (US time). All in betting. $25 Trump max bet applies.

    Trump is paying $5.00.
    My question is, why leave the market open if you’re limiting bets on any part of it to $25.00?

    My second and possibly more important question is… Surely, they meant the bets on Biden!!! are limited to $25.00!!!!!

    Biden @$1.15 for 100k looks pretty good right now.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Has anyone else noticed that all the actors in the Geeks-2-U commercials couldn’t be whiter than if they were being cast for Sanitarium ads?

    Are subroutine issues not a subcontinent issue?

    • I lived in Coburg for over a decade and the Moreland Leader would always have stories about the council. Generally about the dodginess of the Labor factional in fighting. The Labor party is functionally broken in that area. They don’t seem to have any desire to clean it up. Even if Labor had come out with a set of policies I completely agreed with there’s no way that could have been near the top of my ballot as to get to the top there requires deals with devils.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I am teeming with glee to read their SCOTUS arguments this time around. I just want to laugh and laugh and laugh.

  4. Per earlier reply to Kodiak, % in poverty in US and Aust around 12% for both, so my little thought was no good. Still doesn’t change my mind, more dumb dumbs in Murica and they can gagf lol

    • Of course there are more. There are 330 million of them.
      More per capita than here, extremely doubtful.

    • I might have even believed you 20 years ago, when you lived in a kinder society and I was naive. Australians are absolutely stupid people. It’s amazing that you have the nerve to point a finger at anyone.

      • I’m happy with how childish I am about this, sure I’ve met plenty of nice and smart Americans, but I don’t like Muricans telling me how to suck eggs when that country is a cesspool inhabited by idiots (in my opinion).

        If Australia has devolved in anyway, and we follow the cultural/political hegemon, what does that say about the US?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          That it picked the right moment to steal lots of really smart Germans away from the British.

          And thanks so much for turning me into skippy. cackle.

          • No, armchair critic like the rest.
            No interest in going there.
            Not interested in hearing how if I went there I’d change my mind or because I haven’t been there I don’t know what I’m talking about.

        • You are living in a cesspool inhabited by idiots, too, although you seem to be unaware of it.

          I’m not sure that Australia really follows the US culturally or politically. Except for iron ore and some wine, there’s virtually nothing worthy of export culturally that comes from here. What does that say about how clever you are?

          • I admit I’m a bit unaware (more like I choose to ignore). I’m from the Australia of 20 years ago, and just like everyone on MB I resist the change and like to think this is still Australia of the past.

            And as for those changes and why this place is a cesspool and filled with idiots now. Geez, I wonder….

            Could it be imported Murican ideas, imported Murican businesses, imported Murican politics? Even imported Muricans themselves?

            The way you dismiss hegemonic influence is laughable – it’s real, the americanisation of Aust (the world) is well documented. What’s the fkn point in being the unipolar power if it doesn’t give you infleunce over others? I’m not like totes, I’m not gnna claim to be a bona fide tested genius, but I feel smart enough to say my blind hatred and generalisations of yanks is just as bad as your wilfull ignorance of Murican influence on Australia and it’s detrimental effects to our society. Lil old Australia went from being Britannia’s b!tch to Uncle Sam’s lackey and I’m not a fan, what a sh!t society/culture to mimic.

      • Kodiak FWIW I agree.

        The Australian exceptionalism often on display here is cringe in my opinion. I put it down to an insecurity complex some members of our country have about our own country’s faults, because they’re too difficult to acknowledge apparently. Plenty of valid criticism of both nations, but that being said a simple mention of the stupidity of the housing market here that this blog spends most of its time rightly pointing out, is all you really need to know about many Australians. We peaked in the 90s and had an argument for a comparable society then, its been massivley downhill since.

        Btw I’d move back to the states in a heartbeat (But not California). China Ive also lived in and I will never move back to. I know which country I’d rather ally with.

    • They are poorer and dumber:

      Only the U.S. actively chooses not to have universal healthcare

      In 2017, U.S. life expectancy was 78.6 years, compared to an average of 82.3 years for comparable countries.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    My boy and I both have flu like symptoms with runny noses, coughs and sore throats.
    Gave him the day of school, visited the GP and after that we both went and got Covid tested at the “drive through” at some church in Oatlands.
    It was our first time tested and me little man, with his slightly deviated septum, found the experience of having that giant ear bud shoved up his nose quite distressing. (The Sheila doing the test couldn’t get it in his first nose hole and had to go the second)

    His sister found this story very amusing and was disappointed that I hadn’t filmed his discomfort on my phone for her to enjoy and send to all her friends.
    Sigh,…is it possible for a 12 year old to be kind to their younger brother?

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Half the time they enjoy each other’s company enormously. They both share their dads love of absurd humour and it is one of my great joys to see and hear them frequently, on a daily basis, laughing together,… but this is always juxtaposed with moments of extreme mean-spiritedness towards each other.
        The intensity of their pointless and fierce verbal clashes sh!ts me to death some days.
        I see this crule and mean behaviour among all my niece’s and nephews and friends kids to varying degrees and often think about “only children” with no siblings and the way they have missed out on receiving this kind of relentless, extreme bullying and victimisation from someone they love for nearly ALL of their developmental years.
        It’s no wonder Only Children, in adulthood, are so often very thin skinned.
        Could people having less children these days and thus people having less or No siblings lead to a society where everyone bursts into years at the slightest jibe or criticism?

        • Couldn’t agree more, especially about only children – they just don’t need social interaction, makes them challenging to manage sometimes, and they don’t understand conflict. Yeah, the Darwinian red-in-tooth-and-claw nature of the sibling jungle surely helps us to grow as humans/warps our identities and stunts our potential as adults.
          Sisters – weirdest relationships ever. Simultaneously best friends and worst enemies. Girls are more sensitive then boys and know how to push each other’s buttons in the cruelest manner.
          Got some bloody flu-like thing too, fuggit.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes, but only if bribed ahead of times with promises of chocolate, coffee or tickets to the latest One Direction band clone.

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      Bar the sickness you and your family are enduring that is the most genuine funny thing i have read in a while and thankyou for the laugh Ermo.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            I keep an accurate diary.
            I’ll report back tomorrow on my test results.
            If I’m house bound for 2 weeks or more expect to see me around here and on Twitter a lot more.
            I might even post some of MY dance moves for everyone to enjoy.
            😘

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        After handing out flyers during a past election at my old high school I got asked to be one of the ALP scrutineers to watch the ballots get counted and to argue with the lib guys over the very few invalid or incorrectly marked voter slips.
        What I found remarkable and quite amusing was the high number of ballots with very skilfully drawn d!ck and balls on them.
        Had to be at least 10 or 15 of them in a booth that only took 6 or 700 ballots!
        When the first one was revealed I was the only person to laugh loudly with several sucking their breath and my booth captain throwing me a glance that said “Don’t fken laugh mate!”
        FK em I thought it was hilarious.

  6. migtronixMEMBER

    Brexit. Just cause 2020

    “🇪🇺 EU COMMISSION SAYS FORECASTS MAKE TECHNICAL ASSUMPTION THERE WILL BE NO TRADE DEAL WITH BRITAIN AND TRADE FROM JAN 1 WILL BE ON WTO TERMS – RTRS”

  7. happy valleyMEMBER

    So, ole smokin Joe Hockey has got himself a better job spruiking for The Donald campaign?

  8. I say, the lefties meme game has improved out of sight compared to the last election. I guess the Dems were blindsided last time by Trumps preposterous bluster and couldn’t find their meme stride. Memes are already a better determinate of election winners than the pollsters. Watch at the next election. Watch the memes.

    P.S. anyone else noticed that zerohedge has closed the comments? Or have I been banned for too much “loose talk”? (fighting covid conspiracists)

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      What I find most remarkable about our #FakeDemocracy/Global plutocracy is the way the population is so easily divided down the middle.
      Especially in the English speaking “Democracies” neither parties of the “Left” or Right ever win by a large margin. It’s always close to a 50/50 result.
      Is this by design?
      What is behind this phenomenon?

      • What is behind this phenomenon?

        Control (mostly conservative) of the narrative.

        When was the last time you heard anyone in a mainstream outlet seriously discussing things like greater public ownership of assets and services, (properly) higher taxes and more tax brackets, or the perennial MB favourite, immigration ?

        Yet look at _surveys_ on these sorts of topics and the people clearly want things like entirely publicly funded healthcare (no “insurance” or “gap payment”), less privatisation and, of course, lower immigration.

  9. Arthur Schopenhauer

    In our local Green vs Lib (no ALP candidate) council election, the decent Green candidate beat the bent Lib candidate despite the tsunami of sh!t sheets letterboxed against the Green.

    The local state & federal poll booth regularly gets 70% blue votes. I reckon a number of Melbourne middle suburb Lib seats will go green next election.

    • No-one wins with those two options on the table. Major parties entering council elections is accelerating the decline of the country IMO.

  10. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melbourne-man-first-person-charged-under-australia-s-foreign-interference-laws-20201105-p56bxv.html

    A Melbourne man with suspected links to Beijing’s overseas influence arm has become the first person charged under Australia’s landmark foreign interference laws.

    The arrest of Di Sanh Duong, a former Liberal Party candidate, comes as relations between China and Australia have deteriorated to the worst point in decades as Chinese authorities threaten Australian exporters with billions of dollars in trade strikes.

    Mr Duong appeared in a June media conference at the Royal Melbourne Hospital with Minister for Population, Cities and Urban Infrastructure Alan Tudge to announce a $37,450 donation to the hospital.

    • Cut the head off the chicken to scare the monkeys. This guy isn’t Chinese. He was born in Vietnam. To the CCP he’s Vietnamese-Australian. Nonetheless a clear warning to non-China born not to be a tool for the CCP.

  11. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    It’s a funny thing these statistics.
    I’m watching the ABCs ‘USA Votes’ segment and find myself getting annoyed by the repeated point that Joe Biden has received more votes than any other presidential candidate.
    Some US Sheila/Political commentator went on to say Hillary Clinton also had the highest number of votes for a Presidential candidate also.
    What annoyed me about this was there was no reference to the fact that this is largely due to an increased US population every 4 years.
    Increased voter registration would also be a relevant factor.
    By not pointing this out they engage in a kind of obviscation.
    A much more relevant statistic to observe would be, what percentage of the population voted for the current candidates in comparison to former candidates.
    The reason they don’t do this IMHO is because this would challenge the legitimacy of an establishment that only ever rules these days on the thinnest, of winner take all , “Democratic” margins.
    There are clearly divide and conquer machinations going on that have so many elections across the western world coming in so close to a 50/50 result.
    Thats the real story our media just seems incapable of addressing.
    Instead all we just get this partisan cheer leading from both “sides” of the same unchangeable pluticratic establishment.

    • Some battleground states have the highest voter turn out rate ever. Minnesota is at 81% (compared to 73% in 2016). That’s the real story : both Republican and Democrats did everything they can to get their base to turn up to vote.

      From exit polls, Biden did worse than Clinton in every demographic except one : white man. That’s still the demographic where elections are won or lost.

    • I agree the stats they quote are meaningless for the reasons you cite, but have a heart … they are on a 24 hour news cycle, and they are having to endlessly pad until the votes are sufficiently counted for someone to win. It would be more honest to say stuff it, we’ll play the 9 Star Wars movies, 8 Harry Potter movies, 6 Police Academys, 6 Rockys (including the one where he’s a trainer) all back to back until when we get some real news to report …. but they’d rather report on rabble attempting to disrupt counting while chanting “Count the Votes” in Arizona or “Stop the Votes” in PA/GA/NC etc. Nothing like a consistent message.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      A lot of things about Rudd I don’t like but Respect where respect is due.
      It’s not just Murdoch that is the problem here but a lack of media diversity through a kind of concentration of ownership that needs to be legislated to death for any kind of real democracy to exist.
      The fiercest kind of anti trust laws possible are required for this industry.

  12. A very pessimistic outlook from the younger Australian generations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/05/young-australians-delaying-life-goals-due-to-pandemic-and-feel-pessimistic-about-future

    The survey found that nearly 70% of millennials and Gen Z feel that retiring by age 65 and owning a “dream” home will be impossible for them to achieve.

    Sixty-four percent felt uncertain about their financial future and 69% said they will be delaying major life goals as a result of Covid-19 pandemic and their finances.

    A majority said it was unlikely they would retire before 65, find a dream home or a job that wasn’t just paying the bills.