Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Nassim Taleb annihilates Shitcoin

What a day! Stocks, commodities, currencies and futures are going ga-ga over the US “election” as volatility rears its beautiful, shiny head across traders screens today. In a nutshell, USD has been moving alongside the up and down probability of a Trump enema or a Biden bye-bye, leaving a wake of volatility in all dollar and undollar assets. Gold shot up through the $1915USD per ounce level before retracing to the low $1880’s and is now back to just below the $1900USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is having a flat session, probably finishing with a scratch result at 3275 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is up only 0.2% to 24991 points. Japanese stock markets moved the most, catching up from the previous sessions with the Nikkei 225 closing 2% higher at 23785 points while trading in the USDJPY pair has been a big ride, ranging over 120 pips and making a new intraweek high here going into the European open:

The ASX200 has escaped the volatility with a small retracement, down a handful of points to finish at 6062 while the Australian dollar has the ride of its life, hitting the 72 handle before getting back down to the low 70’s before finally stabilishing (sic) somewhere around the 71.10 level this arvo:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are all over the place but the basic trend has been up, despite the stalled result in the polls in the US with the four hourly chart of the S&P showing a probable 2% gap higher on the open tonight on Wall Street:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet, thank Dog below, with some final PMI figures from Germany, and trade balance and non-manufacturing PMI figures from the US.

And probably a lot of hot air from both sides of US politics as the US election remains uncalled, although its clear the “Shining City on a Hill” has permanently lost its luster.

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Comments

  1. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    The election is only getting started. Lawyers to the hilt tomorrow and during the week. This is going to get ugly.

    • C Diminished Chord

      Only place it really matters is PA – Trump 10 points up so a wild swing tomorrow will just be grounds for civil war.

      Georgia swung almost 17% after counting closed – people are freaking out.

        • For all the folks who got on Trump at $2.50 and now have the chance to get Biden at similar odds (not me I’m afraid), the Clint Eastwood question comes into play …. do I feel lucky? Lock in the gain now or go for the maximum and risk losing it all?

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            I got out at Trump $1.40 and I’m not going back in. I’d rather bet on an NFL game – similar odds, quicker result.

          • Sorry Rorke’s, yes it’s a Captain Obvious remark, and yes you see such outcomes in sports betting from time to time. But even so it’s amazing to me just how much the odds have swung in this one and as counting continues they could swing again.
            Totes … your Fox link had Biden at 238, so he needs 33. Michigan and Pennsylvania are 36 with only mid 60% counted, yes Trump in front but votes seems to not be evenly distributed, so not impossible for Biden yet. You may well be right, all I am saying is that the fat lady is not on stage yet.

          • Biden got up to $4 today on sportsbet – for large parts of the day was at $3+ crazy – wish I’d got on early just to lay off – back to $2.25 now.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            Why are you faffing with the betting! The markets are where it’s at! Contested election combined with highest covid hospitalisations since first peak and getting worse.. Yeeeew Be like Trump and PROFIT

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        So my nightmare scenario have come true. Biden announced ‘he’s on the way to victory’, he will not concede like Gore. So let’s hope the margin is large enough not to need the US Supreme court to decide the winner.

        • From the Biden quotes, he clearly thinks that when all the votes are counted that he will win the remaining rust belt states.
          And I have to say that between the gentlemen, I think if Biden knew he was down he would not say so clearly that he expected to win … whereas Trump’s lips have produced so many lies in the last 4 years that they need retreads. As do his tweeting fingers.
          The other angle … difference between the polls in say Wisconsin (Biden was 10 pts up repeatedly) and the votes looks wild, and if that holds then why would anyone use polling services ever again? How many chances do they get to “get it right”?

          • C Diminished Chord

            The behaviour of Biden with regards to Ukraine and the Dems overall behavior with Russia settles the dispute of who is the bigger liar.

            It was an absolutely shocking display of the most depraved corruption – to call him more trustworthy is beyond willfully ignorant.

          • Pollsters… the new economists.

            I recall the last Australian election, it came out that they were polling people based on fixed land-line phone numbers. Yeah… that’s going to give you a good representation of the demographic.

          • C Diminished Chord … re trustworthiness you cannot be serious. Trump racks up more lies in 30 mins speeches than an A-Team episode body count.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Found it, about C Dim Chord
      boomengineeringMEMBER
      November 3, 2020 at 8:12 am
      Just listen to C Eflat Gflat.

      REPLY

      haroldusMEMBER
      November 3, 2020 at 11:47 am
      Ah but is it

      B♭or B♭♭

      REPLY

      boomengineeringMEMBER
      November 4, 2020 at 8:56 am
      You just made than an A.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Will try later, but for now Prelude in C sharp minor Op3, No 2 ,(1892) will do.
          No more Rhapsodie Hongroise No. 2 Franz Liszt ,,(1811-1886) Raabe 106 Grove 244 for me as that’s well and truly in the past.

  2. C Diminished Chord

    Here is a water barrier I saw on a new build in Ivanhoe recently. I walked around after this and to many sites and saw similar, and often worse examples.

    Yes this was a roll of Smiths Thins that extended the entire length of the property as a water barrier.

    https://i.imgur.com/DOua174.jpg

    Some of the other things I have seen were FAR worse – these buildings wont last 2 years. I saw blue waterproofing fixed in four corners, sagging and half hanging off just being plastered over to “hold it up”.

    • That’s an easy mil and a half, matey!

      Why bother with electronics and dollar exchange rate…

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      Jeez, i thought you were joking when you said it was a Smiths Thins bag earlier – like a euphemism for cheap blue sheet. What are they thinking?

      Thanks man 🙂

    • This just gets better – think of the future boost to GDP 😉

      Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy about owning a late 1980’s solid brick home.

      • C Diminished Chord

        Wow – nice pick up. That grey liquid nails ? Also on the left of that sill is some sticky tape – I bet the joins dont meet up and thats there as a “fix”.

    • LOL, where are the spruikers to tell us Oz property prices are justified by the world leading building quality!

  3. before anyone jumps on this comment as a copy and paste, yes it is: go trumpo, go son, go, go , go ,go… ( that’s the whip riding the ole boy home ), Biden’s getting cleaned up for the protest back at the stewards already. Good luck sleeeeeepy. Love a roughy

  4. Today’s stock market gyrations gave me fond memories of riding the Mad Mouse at the Royal Show in Adelaide.

    • Donning my Peachy hat for a brief sec, my advice leading into this election was stay right out of the markets — a total widow-maker if ever there was. The time to get back in will come, but today is not the day.

    • A very dangerous piece of equipment, I had a good look it at it one year , when I took some stock down for judging.Bugger, me..

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The Economist projected Biden at 97 percent to win, and the Democrats at 80 percent to take the Senate, before the election.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Either President is an insult to the American People. Partisans on both sides only see the other guy.

      • Yes but I don’t think he expected him to win it fairly. The other minor detail … who’d buy polling services now? This was meant to be their chance at redemption after 2016 ….

    • Yep, I thought Biden will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral, with the very high probability that Trump will use the courts to stop the counting of absentee/postal votes in case any of the battleground states wavered.
      And here we are.
      The polls were wrong all along the way because a solid 30% of American adults are diehard Trump supporters. And they vote. And they control the narrative and the elective, not the media!
      None of the mainstream media wants to say it out loud, because its a startling truth..
      Punditry was always wrong on that count, thinking people would appeal to the greater senses. Nope.

        • Stawks need stimulus; stimulus depends on control of house and senate – I think these are still to be determined? Might end up gridlocked…?

          Virus will probably get heaps worse under Trump, too. Yes, we’ll see…

        • Yep, the projections are almost another 200K dead before the inauguration next year.
          And then probably one million in 2021 during Trump’s first year of his second term.
          But that doesn’t mean anything anymore.

          • It’s a strange post truth, post science world we live in. Science is all lies you see. Yet when we follow science here the virus is under control. If we follow science we can resolve global warming. Yeah science, what’s it done for us lately?

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            @gav Yet all the anti-science talk is conducted via super computers in our pockets, the apotheosis of 500 years of the scientific method.

      • Agreed: you have to appeal to the simpler, baser parts of people; I don’t necessarily mean evil, but probably selfish, etc – RealPolitik is something that idealists need to learn; win first, then do good things later.

      • C Diminished Chord

        Nah mate – Legacy Media in the US is corrupt as they come – thats all there is too it.

  6. A good take away from all of this is that most are predicting NSW to win tonight. May that prediction also be wrong.

    • Is that League State of Origin in Adelaide? Had completely lost track of that one between the horse race and the US election.

    • Qld are back to being underdogs where they like it. The Blue’s are back to being “on paper” far, far stronger and thinking they have it sown up. We’ll see how it pans out.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I fully expect the reds to be in front on the scoreboard, and then for the judiciary to have to sort the mess out once all the mail on the cards and penalties is in.

      Edit: oh. You meant Origin. Sorry.
      Edit: reviewed comment. Still stands. 😎

  7. Michael Tracey
    @mtracey
    ·
    13h
    Iran and Venezuela love Trump!
    Quote Tweet
    Donald Trump Jr.
    @DonaldJTrumpJr
    · 16h
    Okay, finally got around to making my electoral map prediction. #2020Election #VOTE
    Image
    Margaret Deere
    @deere_margaret
    Replying to
    @mtracey
    You have probably seen this, but ICYMI, this is most accurate election prediction map:

    https://twitter.com/deere_margaret/status/1323732382755758080

  8. Wasn’t it Biden that told the Latinos to vote Trump, that video will break the internet for many years to come. Latinos votes matter. Desparcito

    • Do have a peek at the link above and square that reality outside the Bernays kaleidoscope … those that matter most win … regardless …

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      ABC analysis was all over the place this Arvo.
      They so wanted to make it all about race.
      Arizona apparently went over to the Dems Because Latinos hate Trump but then went on to say Florida Latinos Trump Florida.

      • Ahhh old fella, you’ve made the mistake (and maybe the abc has to) of believing “latinos” to be a homogenous group. Latinos are like Australians – some shared identity, plenty of difference and no way to group them all in a cookie cutter way except for the fact we’re all cunces in our own way.

  9. This should curl some short hairs …

    Matt Bruenig
    @MattBruenig
    According to the exit poll, Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.

    Change from 2016:

    White Men -5
    White Women +2
    Black Men +4
    Black Women +4
    Latino Men +3
    Latino Women +3
    Other +5

    https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992

    Matt Bruenig
    @MattBruenig
    ·
    5h
    According to the exit poll, women and people of color make up the majority (59.6%) of the Trump coalition again in 2020.

    https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323806688927993857

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Nothing happening right now.

      The accidental referendum on American intelligence continues, more slowly, and even moar painfully.

      Literally just bought two bags of popcorn and mixed… Tequila!

  10. JUST IN:
    Trump states clearly that he wants legitimate vote counting to stop, since he’s technically over the line to win the electoral college (if you announce all results right now), but before the millions of postal/absentee votes come in and are added to the tallies:

    “We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.

    So our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation, this is a very big moment, this is a major fraud on our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner.

    So we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list, OK?

    It’s a very sad — it’s a very sad moment. To me this is a very sad moment. And we will win in. As far as I’m concerned, we already have won it.”

    I. TOLD. YOU. SO. Stewie Griffin, et al, etc etc etc….

    • Commodities to Boom

      It’s not going to court it will be decided in the coming days. I don’t know what you’re looking at but Trump is a heavy favourite in the states left to decide apart from Nevada and Arizona.

      • No Chris has it right.
        Trump wants the counting to stop while the vote parcels that he figures strongly favour his opponent have not been counted yet.
        He wants his newly packed Supreme Court to rule on which votes in PA can be counted, having lost the same case in the same court but with 8 judges … this time there is potentially 9.
        The worst of it is that he knows that his opponents know what he is doing, and the media know what he is doing, but he seems to think that he can win regardless. If Biden can win without PA then it defuses.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      if Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia, the PA’s outcome is moot. If Biden wins any of the 4 states, then the Supreme Court will decide the election outcome once again.

  11. RTR venture did not work well but thanks to people that think those assays were good enough I managed to exit with minimal losses. If I was bit patient I could have exit with profit too.
    Bought some NCM – not at levels I wanted to but considering where price of gold and copper is heading I see no issues. Plus plenty of dry poweder to top up if we see metdown.
    Then just wait for the stimuluses.

    It’s weird that I want Trump to win but Biden win and Dems winning the senate will actually make me rich.

  12. haaaaaaa haaaaaaa haaaaaaaaa another dusting I got for an outlyer call that is going to get up!!!!!! lets review inflation next year or so shall we??? u know the good ole excessive Fed (will they change the rules some more to suit them huh?), excessive fiscal booooom? any bets? i might start taking them?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      No need for polling. For anyone paying attention, Trump already vote Florida before the election day due to the early voting.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Should be ‘won’ Florida’. The Democrat turnout was good, but the Republican turnout was even more.

  13. From 538, states that will still be counting and when they expect to finish.

    Wisconsin: semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern.

    Georgia: The afternoon.

    Michigan: Wednesday night.

    Pennsylvania: Friday

    North Carolina: Over a week.

    Maine: Anyone’s guess.

    • Biden will in be tomorrow then.(I would have prefered Trump, still the wokes needed nappies today)

      GOP will keep the senate, no stimulus in sight then

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      If Biden (227) wins Nevada (6), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10) = 254
      Any one of Georgia (16) Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16) gets him to 270

    • Very nice link skippy.
      Senate 47-47 with 6 to be decided and they say it’s line ball.
      Presidential race … the nice thing about the site is the concise specifics.
      Biden 238-213 and scenario posted by Steven Shepard Senior campaigns and elections editor looks interesting.
      “If Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin” … inter alia … “, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he’s at 269 electoral votes. Which means he’s a Nebraska-02 (where he’s currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine’s 2nd District.”
      So it’s tighter than a 20 year old wedding suit but Biden appears to have an edge. Although if the Dems can’t make 50 in the Senate then we can declare gridlock the winner and not the swamp!
      Does anyone know how Trump’s highly telegraphed “we wuz robbed” is going to play out?