How I learned to stop worrying and love the property bubble

Mortgages are going nuts!

All I can say is: who cares. Why would I say that after years of fighting the bubble?

A few reasons. First, this is an owner-occupier boom. What has so incensed me about previous booms is that they’ve been manifestly unfair driven at various stages by rent-seeking investors, Chinese blood-money or mass immigration.

None of these are true today. This is an owner-occupier and first home buyer boom:

If ordinary Aussies want to blow a new house price bubble then who am I to stop them? It’s cheaper to buy than rent so why not.

Second, it may be stupid to inflate more bubble but it’s no longer hollowing out the economy. Australia is a global price taker on interest rates and we’ve finally gotten monetary policy to where it needs to be at zero with QE, so the Australian dollar is not artificially inflated anymore. Moreover, the last house price boom saw little activity spillovers and neither will this one so the AUD will stay weak.

Third, in part owing to the first two, I still don’t see any kind of national price boom. Sydney and Melbourne have huge oversupply. Other capitals look much better. Brisbane especially looks strong. Perth will crash again before long as iron ore corrects into a new bear market, and if others run who cares. They’re peripheral and no financial stability threat.

Fourth, through pure dumb luck, Australia has managed to negotiate its period of massive offshore borrowing imbalance without a crisis. Now we have the monetary settings that we need, offshore debt is being eaten by the RBA and the risk of external crisis is gone.

In short, the Aussie property bubble is a shadow of its former self:

  • It no longer does so much harm to equity.
  • It does much less economic harm to tradaeble sectors (though land prices remain an issue).
  • It no longer creates enormous financial stability risk.
  • It no longer pushes us towards China.

Sure, it’s still a big problem. The bubble has engulfed the political economy to mitigate all of these risks, and I will keep fighting it on this basis. But it is slowly but surely dying and will keep doing so as bank margins collapse permanently into the arms of the taxpayer. There is no coming back from this. The Australian banks are being nationalised in the march to 50bps mortgages.

That’s the rub. The Aussie property bubble is running its last fateful race without a lot of the much wider economic fallout that has tortured the right-thinking for two decades.

Pass the popcorn, I say!

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. Jumping jack flash

    It all depends on the debt growth rate and it really looks as if they’ve finally cracked the mystery.

    After 20 years of pretty much back to back interest rate cuts, 10 years of those doing pretty much nothing except for requiring more cuts, have they finally done it?

    In my opinion what we’re seeing is early access super money being leveraged but i may be wrong. The clue will be what happens to that curious rise in savings immediately prior to this. If im right then I’ll give it 6 months. 10 tops.

    And by that time the borders may be open again and Phil may have warmed to NIRP.

    Well done to everyone in the meantime.

    Now i just hope the bank gives me the amount of debt i need. Just about there…

    • The banks did some handwaving about not accepting super withdrawals as savings but I doubt they care. They have been given the green light to lend irresponsibly.

      • Popliteal fossa

        Anecdotally from Whingepool, there have been reports of people who have the means (apparently) to refi being knocked back because they accessed super early access.

      • Yes, when the Govt does things like loosen lending standards they are sending a very explicit signal to the banks i.e. we’re going to back you up every step of the way, Haynes GF’d …

        So, it’s back to the bad old days and the bad old ways — and it’ll need to be too, because NIMs have been crushed and these monsters need to make fat profits.

      • Jumping jack flash

        After 6 months nobody cares where your money came from as far as im aware.

        Not all banks ask for super statements either, and even then, 6 months only.

        Thats why i think it will intensify up to April next year and then gradually die off over the next couple of months after that. It’ll be a wild ride tho

    • Nothing has changed at all other than the market turning bullish

      Property starts its major falls into Q1 21

      This type of euphoria happened at

      At 2080 in gold
      Top of the Nasdaq bubble
      At 7430 in AUD
      At 7200 in ASX

      GUYS THIS IS THE ABSOLUTE TOP NOW

      you wait to see the panic in Q1 21

      We are starting the multi year falls in property prices

      • With all this free money I can’t see it. What’s the q1 trigger, why so specific. Im in Perth and it is a ridiculously fast moving market….on the way up. I wish it werent but alas I think the bears missed this.

          • Yep Perth is just stupid. Under offers before inspections, nothing even semi ok doesn’t go under offer in a week. It reminds me of FOMO in spec stocks….

          • lol wouldn’t pay >1M detached in Burleigh Heads, let alone middle of nowhere Helensvale. lol, its def gonna end well… 🙂

      • I am going to bookmark your comment so I can come back to it in Q1 FY21. I am doubtful your uber-bear views will be realised in that timeframe. You might be right long term, but then again we’re all dead in the long term.

        I appreciate reading a wide variety of views but 12 (so far) comments on this post alone basically all saying the sky is going to fall in just around the corner. It’s getting old mate. And you’re constantly wrong.

        I’m going to challenge you several fold with my own, much more likely predictions:

        1. This isn’t the top of Australian property
        2. Property prices will rise modestly nationally next year because TINA, and this is Australia
        3. There is an entire economic & political system designed to support high house prices, this won’t change in the short-mid term

        • 90k
          The only head wind to your forecast is global interest rates are going to start rising
          If prices rise into rising interest rates increasing unemployment, introduction of an owner occ land tax, falling rents, no foreign buyers left, zero immigration, RVA at zero and QE which won’t do anything,… they announced QE yesterday and AUD and Aust 10 year bond yields just went straight up, RBA is finished…..that doesn’t include the global crisis that’s going to emerge from Europe over next 3 months, job keeper winding to zero

          If you can’t smell the fear and desperation……?

          Global bond bear market is starting into a global sharemarket bear market – this rebound from March is just a bear market rally similar to 1929/30, then we have government bond defaults
          We are already in the next Great Depression, it’s just being hidden

          This is what always happens at the top… euphoria

          You need to stay calm and see through it

          Everyone always goes insane at the top and in deep fear at the bottom

          Market always looks strongest at the top and weakest at the bottom

          We are at the top of the greatest debt bubble ever in history and it’s very hard to see you are in a bubble…..

          This is not going to end well

          It’s going to end in tears

          • agree, but it just needs iron to crash, which it will in Dec. I suspect the $100B is structural support, they know this is coming.

          • I agree on interest rates. But every CB, every federal government, is unified in the drive to create more debt and keep the machine going. We are in unchartered territories but no market is now ‘free’ in the sense of how it used to be in the 20th century. Everything is artificially managed and supported.

            Your theory is correct if free markets are allowed to correct.

            My theory is correct if they are not allowed i.e. don’t fight the Fed. We’re almost in a command & control economy with the degree of intervention occurring now.

            For the past 12 years CBs & Governments have won every single time. I highly doubt next year will be any different.

          • herderp
            $100 Billion is a drop in the ocean.

            Mortgage debt $2 Trillion or
            Other household personal debt $200 BN or what ever
            What’s state debt $500 BN no idea but it’s a lot
            Corp Debt and Financial debt

            What are we up to $4/5Trillion

            $100 BN is chicken feed and they know it

            They are in panic, they know what’s around the corner

            ECB FED BOE etc know, they would be in contact

            The know the global crisis coming

          • bcnich

            Phil Lowe stated in his remarks publicly yesterday that the cash rate will not go up in the next 3 years. What happens to international interest rates is less relevant surely? If local banks which AU punters borrow from can get cash via the TFF at 0.1% and lend at 2% they are still at 1.9% margin and the punters are still only paying 2% interest. If global interest rates go up due to a European crisis it will mean that our currency will get smashed which by all accounts is a good thing. My understanding is the 5/10 yr bond purchases with the $100B of QE is to drive the AUD down. What the QE will lead to in the absence of a policy vision is asset price appreciation, stocks and houses.

            My view differs to yours in that if we get a blow off it will be less to do with interest rates due to RBA controls and more to do with secure employment securing the debt. We are floating in funny money right now and as stimulus declines the pool of those who can repay easily will get smaller, more businesses will go to the wall and more asset sales will occur. Collectively we also need to understand that the debt on Australian property is not as high as many think proportional to the pool. Its $1.8T on $7T of housing value.

            The blow off if it happens in housing, will come down to serviceability and less to do with interest rates. I do agree with you however that other asset classes which are secured with foreign derived capital pools (subject to higher inflation) could get hammered massively. Housing in Australia has been protected by the TFF via the RBA, the TFF however cannot create jobs.

          • @Gareth

            Phil Lowe said….

            Each thing you guys tell me makes know I am even more right.

            The RBA GFY facility won’t do anything

            Gareth jump onto the chart of the Aussie 10 year bond rate…..it’s soared higher since the QE announcement and look at AUD

            RBA has lost control

            This will become apparent to you all in Q1 2021

  2. – The problem is that, as a result of relentless rising rents, households are finding that buying a home is actually cheaper than renting a house. We have seen that in e.g. New Zealand and Canada as well. And that has the perverse effect that an economy (e.g. our economy) will be become more and more leveraged and more and more to vulnerable to “economic shocks”.

    • It doesn’t appear to work after the fact. The RBA swapping bank owned bonds for cash does nothing much.
      It’s the government spending prior to the QE that has the effect. That can be very stimulatory as witnessed by the last 6 months.
      The RBA have just announced 100B of QE, just after the government spent 100B on the jobkeeper wage subsidy.

  3. Funny the difference 15 basis points can make…

    Had to laugh at the RBA Guv giving a press conference where he had to explicitly emphasize that “we haven’t run out of firepower”. Sure you haven’t, Phil…

    • Yep, that 10bps in the back pocket could make the difference between economic bliss and economic oblivion.

      Do these myopic morons really think the thinking public swallows this tripe?

      Committee member dribbles on shirt and wails: “But, ‘models’ ….”

      • ‘Do these myopic morons really think the thinking public swallows this tripe?’
        Yes, they do think that, coz they do swallow everthing they’re told, especially if it means higher house prices, that is clearly exactly what the general public want! The actual real ‘thinking public’ is a very small group and they probably read MB.

      • Last I checked the RBA had just parted ways with their head of modelling after half his department left.

    • Well I’m not sure why David is being so coy about the damage this is causing. Plenty of FHBs still can’t afford a $600k house in today’s market unless both people (partners) are working and living on 2 minute noodles. Perhaps it was always meant to be a struggle? But when you factor in all the other costs in life (outside of the mortgage) it’s a bit nuts isn’t it? If a couple wants a kid or 2 it’s even harder.

      My advice to young people would be to look at moving regional and hope you can do a remote job or work 2 days a week in the city.

  4. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Break out the champers?

    “Second, it may be stupid to inflate more bubble but it’s no longer hollowing out the economy. Australia is a global price taker on interest rates and we’ve finally gotten monetary policy to where it needs to be at zero with QE, so the Australian dollar is not artificially inflated anymore. Moreover, the last house price boom saw little activity spillovers and neither will this one so the AUD will stay weak.”

    Not artificially inflated anymore?

    The AUD will STAY weak?. Since when did it get weak?

    Huh?

    When did we discover the cure for predatory trade rivals exporting capital to Australia?

    When did Dutch Disease due to a massive historic mining boom vanish?

    When did all those imports from trade cheats become so marvellous?

    Well I suppose this is one way to ignore that great smelly elephant in the room.

    • The change in long-held; passionately held views is also a way of removing a contradiction in posts on the state of economic affairs on this site.
      Sad really. Bit it sums up the reality that eventually we, like Hugh Hendry, will all get beaten into conformity.
      “Don’t Fight The Fed!” or else….

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        It is baffling.

        I really don’t understand why people are so hard wired with the idea that the only options permissable are those that are consistent with preserving a private bank monopoly over electronic central banks liabilities. Especially when people around the globe including some central banks are already discussing change.

        Once you let go of that relic of the early 20th century much better options are available.

      • The problem with the bears (and I count myself in that group) is that we’ve all been using the GFC as a reference point. Policymakers were utterly blindsided by that event and we endured a deflationary crash.

        This time, however, they are being extra cautious to avoid a repeat by keeping money flooding into the system so that an asset price crash can’t happen again — they understand the deflationary effects of a slow-down in money supply growth so are keeping the taps running almost constantly. The question now is, what deleterious side effects are there to such a policy?

        We should find out some time in 2021.

        • Jumping jack flash

          My theory was that the GFC was created because they were absolutely astonished when their system actually started working properly and pulled the pin. They wont make the same mistake twice.

        • Mark Blyth explained this in a discussion I saw a while ago. He said they will do everything possible to keep asset prices pumped.

    • my toranaMEMBER

      What about money laundering and foreign purchasers.
      Anyway it is strange I know of so many people buying houses at the moment.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        People are buying houses (mostly existing) because every arm of government is telling them they cannot lose.

        That this is not in the interest of Australia is bleedingly obvious.

        A massive misallocation of resources.

        We simply cannot afford to blow the proceeds of a historic economic boom so carelessly.

        • People are buying because they choose to. It will doubtless end badly. My point is that it won’t as badly as once feared for the broader economy. Some features of the reblancing are underway anyway.

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            Misallocated capital is misallocated capital.

            No amount of “rebalancing” can change that.

            The only thing that is true is that as a very wealthy country Australia has a great capacity to shoot itself in the foot and still have a reasonable standard of living.

            Generations will marvel how we managed to phiss so much money up so many small walls.

          • MountainGuinMEMBER

            They are choosing to buy partially influenced by BS domain articles and corelogic stats. More power to people making their own minds up, but where they have been misled, thats an issue, no refunds in this game.

          • People are “choosing” to buy houses like I am “choosing” to buy shares.
            If they make the other options too difficult or too unpalatable is it really a choice?

    • AUD gained overnight after RBA’s decision. I dont see it as weak, or weakened. Unless DLS means vulnerable. See what he says in an hour or so.

  5. This has become an absolute laughable joke the extent everyone has gone to keep the bubble from popping

    The dumb money always buy at the top

    It’s just the way it is

    And i know most don’t believe me or sick of hearing me say

    The global bond market is about to turn down rates higher abd taking the property bubble with it

    Everyone is lying to themselves now

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Hey bloke, when’s your mythical always crash happening huh fella? 18 months? LOLOLOL……

    • To re-use a well-overused cliche, this is like the Titanic steerage class passengers looting the cabins of those first class who are trying to leave in what lifeboats are left, thinking they are making themselves rich in the process. Those of us who left early on in the first lifeboats, and were laughed at, have been out at sea for some time; shivering in the cold and wondering if we did the right thing. The ship is so big, after all, maybe it won’t sink ( this article by Macrobusiness fits here). But the warning blare of the foghorn – the 2008 GFC; the UK leaving the EU; the protestors sitting under a yellow umbrella in HK; Trump’s election, has stopped; it’s all gone quiet. The Central banking orchestra is playing on – the same old tunes; knowing that all is lost and the ship is going down, and panic is just around the corner.
      For those of us cold and alive out at sea, all we can do is turn away from the unfolding disaster and ask ourselves the only question that needs an answer “What do we do next” ( and heading back to the sinking ship – again, this article – isn’t it)
      Bon Chance, all, Bon Chance.

      • Near, far, wherever you are
        I believe that the heart does go on
        Once more, you open the door
        And you’re here in my heart
        And my heart will go on and on

        • For Mig

          I keep this room, and this room keeps me, chained to my organs
          I am quarantined, to a place that’s dark, staring at three walls
          The door is locked to them

      • Don’t panic buy at the top

        This will be a decade property price decline

        The global bond market is turning

        The property and bond markets are like an ocean liner turning

        It takes a while but once turned its very hard to change back

        We are headed into MAJOR cyclical change in direction in both interest rates and property prices

      • Well written Janet. Only thing is how are we so sure that the CBs are lost?

        If you look at the chatter from Davos about the ‘Great Reset’ and Bretton Woods 2.0, they appear anything but lost. Seems to me that the days of fiat currency may be numbered (pardon the pun), and that the technocrats and their network of CB mates have some kind of centrally-planned ‘digital transformation’ at the ready.

        At least that’s what I’m seeing from all the rhetoric they’re publishing at the moment. Scary stuff.

      • @Janet
        And clearly no tirrorists caught covid cos they’ve been back in action full tilt last 7 days. Covid so discriminatory:)

    • Nope not sick of it yet!
      Definitely actually seeing some wording in MB now starting to match yours tbh..
      “But it is slowly but surely dying and will keep doing so inexorably as bank margins collapse permanently into the arms of the taxpayer. There is no coming back from this. The Australian banks are being nationalised in the march to 50bps mortgages.”
      That exact sentence could have been said by yourself 6 months ago and i would not notice the difference.

    • C Diminished Chord

      Literally none of Davids points are backed up by anything except completely ambit claims.

      First effect of the RBA pump combined with the China’s ending of trade will be a drop in AUD,

      David makes the ambit claim this “will not affect tradeables” – what ??!! Lols thats seriously a joke right?

      I import electronic components – you know one of those Australian manufacturers and tech Unicorns everyone is so keen on – and a swing of ten cents has me looking to head over seas.

      There is just no comprehension on here of the impact of currency, everyone on this website is like the RBA and Josh etc industry insiders – I think BOTH David and Leith have worked in public service in finance areas – just seriously.

      Tradeables inflation is going to absolutely smash Australia – its what brought down almost every commodity rising super star from the 1960s-1990s. And if we have a ratings down grade then our economy will go straight to Argentina grade and China will pick over our corpse like a white-backed vulture.

      • CDC have you thought of running a book on forex. That is buy USD or euro or yen or yuan when $A is high and using it later. We add value and have forex accounts so as to insulate from Pacific Peso movements. Still have some bought at 1.10 US.

        • C Diminished Chord

          Thanks – will do this. We are starting up (two years development) so missed that high point – this will be the way forward – although New Zealand may just be a better option all round – better internet, better stability, far better lifestyle. 2021 will tell us all.

          Our markets are high volume though – so most likely will be in EU or US. Just lack of market share in OZ. Not just greedy but will quickly be consumed by larger fish otherwise..

      • Yep. I’ve never understood MB’s argument about needing to crash the $AUD. If it stays permanently down at $0.5 or less, aren’t we just making almost everything we consume & import 28% more expensive?

        If they somehow actually achieved this sending inflation, unless the ABS decides to fiddle with it somehow again to hide this, through the roof and force rate rises, collapsing the property market in the process.

        Having said that, I think we are now in a zero sum game of who can ZIRP/QE the hardest to manipulate their currency so I think the AUD will stay in the range of $0.6-$0.75 for the time being.

    • Is it any surprise what is going on?

      Can you imagine a pollie turning around and saying: “This whole thing is silly, we need to face the harsh reality that is coming.”(?)
      The incumbents have only one interest and that is to kick the can one more time.

      This should end in a deflationary conflagration – but it won’t, it’ll be an inflationary conflagration because ‘constant can kicking’, which involves the perpetual pumping of printed money into a flagging economy. Demand-side policies are next to useless as it’s like keeping a comatose patient on life support.

      The only path to a healthier economy is a sweeping uncontainable crisis — that way the ‘can kicking’ ends and serious people put their minds to rebuilding.

      • C Diminished Chord

        Two weeks ago flat head tails were $75 a kilo – flat head……fing flat head.

        House prices are rising at almost 2% in a depression.

        Yeah- theres inflation alight – we just don’t record it in any remotely trust worthy way – so people think its not real.

        But it absolutely is – its everywhere and getting worse by the day.

        People are consumed with selective bias – “look at the CPI, look at this new mortgage credit data” – they are just flat out, entirely manipulated lies built on lies.

        • Flathead at $75 kg…Melbourne foodie state some chef has probably garnished with burnt butter & chives. So desirable. Even Woolies had $2.75 noodles at $3:) inflation

    • I used to think that, but am feeling more likely im the dumb money for not buying 5,10,15 years back….this bubble will not pop in anytime for me or my family to be able to reap any benefit. Its capitulation time, at the worst possible time.

      • Neil as an institutional trader once sentiment turned as it has now, it confirmed to me I was correct
        You need this for the market to turn

        Watch for extra bullish rhetoric at an extreme high (which is now) and wait for everyone to go short at the bottom after a crash

        That’s when markets turn

        The rhetoric is now “boom to the moon..”

        There will be tears Q1 2021.

        Neil one of my first lessons when I started on the USD trading desk (USDDM, CHF GBP) was in the gulf war, there was a huge anticipation buying USD for months into prior to the war, USD safe haven, the day the first bomb dropped the USD collapsed

        It was my first lesson of BUY THE RUMOUR SELL THE FACT

        this is really all psychology that drives this

        Really there is no real change from yesterday

        It’s just the belief that the boom is coming back

        It’s not

    • Timon even if it was
      You still go to bed with a $1M loan that against contrary belief does have to be paid

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        no bc you just need to sell to somebody else after 7 years when your property value has doubled (nominally..)!

        • Jumping jack flash

          This.

          And consider that it is not a “sale” so much as a transfer of debt from one party to another.

          One side of the transaction takes on a bigger pile of debt than the original pile and then hands it over. The other side uses that pile to repay the remainder of the first pile, recover the equity, and generate the expected capital gains.

          The debt is effectively transferred from the “seller” to the “buyer” and increased in the process.

    • alwaysanonMEMBER

      The people who say this are comparing the interest component of the loan to the rent – viewing the principal as forced savings. And at these rates that is mostly true.

      • It depends where

        My weekly rent is more than the P&I on a loan – settling in 3 weeks – at 25YR, not 30YR. It’s actually substantially more so as to enable me to include water charges and still be ahead. Does not include rates. They equalise at around 22YR loan term.

      • If you think about it, if your viewing the principal component as forced savings and the interest component is equal to or less than what it wold cost to rent then its better to rent and invest in something more productive with better returns. Especially when you consider maintenance and holding costs.

        The irony is that this has been the case for 20 years at least and now at this end of the game, there is bugger all left around that will provide a return. 20+ years of pumping it all into property has made property look like a winning proposition, resulting in the gutting of everything else of value, now property is a poor choice but seemingly the only choice available to the average punter.

        • Australians aren’t sophisticated investors, on any level. We do as the tribe tells us to do.

          Shelter should never have been an investment class. But governments founds it a pleasing investment that the plebs could understand.

          • The government actively prohibits anyone who isn’t already wealthy investments that would make good returns so we should not be too surprised at this result.

    • Yeah, need to factor in council rates, insurance, strata fees (or maintenance).
      Probably still cheaper to buy than rent, everywhere else in the country apart from Sydney.
      It means prices don’t need to go up, they just need to stay flat.

    • I can’t believe that a modest 2 bed unit in a middling area in Sydney can cost a $1m — that is batsh!t crazy.

      “That which is unsustainable will end.” Herb Stein

      Do people not understand that the number of units available is virtually infinite (constrained only by engineering limitations). You are hostage to strata fees and the like while only having a notional claim on the land (of postage stamp size).

      History won’t be kind to current generations.

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Now all we need is for sun boy to realise his extreme failings and capitulate then I think we’re almost there! A watched bubble never pops. Boom times ahead, that is always a guarantee!!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “A watched bubble never pops”

      As someone who frequently used soapy water to find Gas leaks I can say that this statement is 100% incorrect.

      • See, this is where you go wrong – Joshie boy and his mariachi band from RBA would have you know that the best way to find a gas leak is to poke around with an open flame, and squirt a little bit of petrol here and there.

      • Used a cigarette lighter once but it was LPG. Every appliance in the Chinese restaurant leapt 4 inches in the air. Code brown for self.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          I used to do a lot of commercial kitchen refurbs. The mob I contracted to did all the Jap restaurants around Sydney.
          Put me off eating out working for those guys.
          🤢

    • Jumping jack flash

      Boom times for sure. For about 10 months if im right about the super effect, but during that time they’ll be able to plan their next move I’m sure.

      And if the debt engine reignites then it’ll be 2006 all over again. Surging wages, surging inflation, surging debt. Happy days!

      • Not quite yet, mate. We signed up in our rental for another 12 months through to Sept 21. Really good landlords and place. Fair value rent. Negotiated AC to both bedrooms also. Just got installed ready for summer. I am still of the opinion that bowels of this monster have not been completely evacuated. It now depends on JK, insolvency laws and rental moratoriums (resi and commercial). If the jobs stay then people will service their debt easily. If unemployment ticks up then that’s the only real threat left to the house prices. It is now clear that the gubmint will keep these supports in place longer than currently mandated. Whatever it takes.

        I don’t think our landlord will sell as he only bought the joint in mid 2018 so the capital gains just aren’t there yet. So happy to sit tight. Financially, we are about 40% in equities/gold and 60% cash. Will deploy another 10-20% depending on the macro climate going forward.

        Yeah, I’m a tightarse and like a good bargain but if a good house comes up some time early to mid next year we may move on it, regardless of price.

        Gotta make a move to a town that’s right for me
        Town to keep me movin’
        Keep me groovin’ with some energy
        Well, I talk about it, talk about it
        Talk about it, talk about it
        Talk about, talk about
        Talk about movin’
        Gotta move on
        Gotta move on
        Gotta move on
        Won’t you take me to
        Funkytown?

  7. Can someone smarter that I help with this question?

    A ways back before the days of COVID and the TFF there was always background concern about the reliance of the banks on international debt markets and the possibility of externally driven rate rises if access to offshore credit tightened.

    Now with the AUD holding up despite RBA printing presses going full steam and a once inconceivable cash rate of 0.1% and the , do all / most / any of the internationally held notes get recycled on maturity via new drawing via the TFF and hence no more (much less) need for foreign money / exposure to international debt markets? Or have I got it all wrong?

    • George it’s all BS don’t fall for it

      It’s a smoke and mirror tactic to fool everyone into believing they have it under control
      They don’t………

      Rising interest rates globally affect us and rising interest rates will be the GFY

    • C Diminished Chord

      Went off like a cracker – but plunging now. Ratings agencies may hold as part of the western alliance trade war since they have been economically weaponized – but traders, bankers, finance and markets all know that the AUD is cactus with the printing presses running along with China.

      AUD is done. Plunge protection team is working overtime.

      From there tradeable inflation will force the RBA hand.

    • That argument that the CAD meant the RBA couldn’t cut rates to zero never made any sense to me.

      • That argument as I recall was from the opposite of the ability of BOJ printing for years without crashing their currency. CAS.

    • As long as there’s demand at reasonable rates the old foreign borrowings will probably be recycled. Banks want to keep their funding sources as broad as possible but as you say, the RBA could fund the banks in their entirety if the situation warranted.

      Right now the TFF only allows for borrowing up to a maximum of 4 or 5% of all assets on balance sheet but this could feasibly be extended if need be — they would do it in a crisis. I think foreigners will continue lending as long as the Commonwealth finances are in decent shape as they see the Commonwealth effectively providing a guarantee to debt-holders.

  8. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    We don’t know that it’s cheaper to buy than rent. That conclusion can only be reached at the end of a mortgage, not at the start.

    Still, the RBA has said don’t keep money in a bank. From my perspective, they have won and I have lost by being patient, waiting and hoping for a property correction that has never come. I am now in the market for my first home

      • This is the psychology you need for a top in every market

        The point that the towel is thrown in is when it turns

        Alex, true

        This is the point that the very best traders hold the line very hard and not listen to when everyone turns bullish

        It’s actually at this point the market turns

        You need this to occur

        Squiggle do not listen the RBA about anything

        Central banks have destroyed the economy

        They have created the biggest bubble in history

        It’s goimg to explode beyond belief

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          The main problem is that we should not be “trading” property at all. Should be a place to raise your kids in near your family perhaps and near your place of work and recreation. Not something that everybody should expect to sell at a huge profit.

          • It’s weird theory aye.

            On Monday nights all my mates talk about how property can turn into profits and mine will see huge capital growth.

            I had to shut them up and tell them I don’t give a fuck it’s somewhere I can live and I can take a dump in my backyard if I wanted to and that’s all I see it for. What ever the markets does I don’t care.

          • It’s not about trading
            It’s do you ruin your life to buy a house with a huge amount of debt as this point

        • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

          No BcNich. I agree with you about the basics, eg don’t buy in at the top. The trouble here is that the RBA have just demonstrated they will define what the top is and there are no rules they need to abide by.

          I used to think the tipping point would be when real interest rates go negative, but the RBA cruised past that point ages ago. We now have CPI at 1.6% and official rates at 0.1% for the next three years. On top of that,RBA has just declared itself to be a money printer.

          For the last 10 years, I had three basic points to my investment strategy:
          1. Super = 100% International Shares. Keep out of Australian banks
          2. My non-super was all in Cash deposits.
          3. Wait for the housing Crash.

          I’m now making the following changes
          2) take all deposits out of Australian Banks. Leave them nothing. The only use for Australian banks should be for transactional cash, salary, bills etc
          3) get a PPOR + hold on the job at all costs

          That’s my game plan now

          • Display NameMEMBER

            That has been my approach, and mirrors my current plan. In the market , probably buy early in new year.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          You’re right on market tops Bcnich and signs of bell ringing. Whats interesting is the number of posts about capitualation in this thread. Surprises me. Maybe mb is a valuable source of market info.

    • I am about to sign my first mortgage. $372k and I’m trying to be responsible. I’m single, no partner just north 6 figures package. I’ve been a professional for 5 years.

      I’ve had enough of waiting and the crash has never come.

      My thoughts are the cheaper it is the less it can decline. Plus it beats rent.

      • Good on you luke. With a salary like that and mortgage that small you’ll have no issues. I’ve decided to go the other way – if u can’t beat them, join them. I’ll max out my loan and get the best I can – in Sydney if you don’t spend more than a mil then why stay at all, most stock is rubbish. I figure if it all goes balls up then the bank still needs to go through the awkwardness of kicking a family out of a family home..

      • Yep, there are plenty of benefits to owning that you can’t quantify in money terms. If you can afford something comfortably then do so. The chances of a deflationary bust are close to nil — all western central banks have committed themselves to pumping huge gobs of printed money into the system to save banks and asset markets

    • Me too Squiggle. It takes a bit to swallow the pride but I am over renting, and willing to suffer a long term loss to have a family home. Best situation I can see is a 20 year grind lower like Japan so my kids can afford one day.

      It hurts to think about the places I could have bought cheaper 8 years ago than what I am looking at now.

  9. Fishing72MEMBER

    Please excuse my ignorance of basic financial literacy but how does the lowering of interest rates get interpreted as a partial nationalisation of the banks ?

    Appreciate any responses . I come here to learn .

    • The RBA has created a mechanism where banks can tap them for funding. They have tapped $80B so far with another $100B to go, and they are prepared to keep going. This means they have been nationalised by stealth, but if I understand this blog it means that rising interest rates from across the global are now dulled some what.

      With the RBA also how launching QE, it’s going to lower the dollar, so when they calc the exchange rate to pay back the loans from international markets they need to pay back more. So funding has become more expensive so margins are hit.

      It’s my lame mans understanding anyways.

      • Fishing72MEMBER

        Thanks for the reply .

        But surely nationalised implies some reciprocal ownership of the banks by the RBA when funding is provided ?

    • C Diminished Chord

      The list above by David are purely ambit claims with noting backing them up at all. Most are wrong.

      Tradeable inflation will occur, it will be seriously bad and impact the bubble.
      Banks wont be nationalized unless there is a massive collapse in housing – which disproves everything he said anyway.
      China decoupling will not simply be replaced by some magical fantasy land – we are being ostracized from the worlds largest economy PPI, worlds largest consumer of resources, largest manufacturer, largest exporter etc and now being forced to fight for scraps amongst buyers like Vietnam – awesome – really amazing stuff.

      We are cactus – dollar will start falling and at that point inflation, ratings down grade and we all sing “Dont Cry for Me Argentina” together.

    • He is talking out of his back end and making it up as he goes along rather than admit he was wrong for at least a decade.

  10. On Saturday I was talking to a friend that lives just north of Atlanta, we got on to the topic of RE prices and what to do with the house he still owns in Newie. He used to live in Australia.
    His house is close to downtown Newie and is valued at well over $1M but it’s really just an old miners cottage, with a few extensions. His home in Atlanta is a beautiful 4 bedroom 3 bath 3 living area but is valued at less than $300KUSD.
    How? why? what’s the difference? who in their right mind would pay $1M for a small miners cottage? (especially when it is located 160km north of the Sydney CBD).

    This is the reality that we are all being asked to make permanent, it is this reality that will form the foundation of Australia’s economy in the second quarter of the 21 century.
    None of this makes any sense but one thing is certain, the inmates are definitely running this asylum.

    • Fishing72MEMBER

      Perhaps because Newcastle is an unlikely candidate for most liveable places in the world whilst Atlanta is not ?

      Newcastle: Relatively cosmopolitan. Clean . Safe . Beautiful, moderate climate. Situated next to the gleaming , blue Pacific Ocean . Great lifestyle and amenities. Stable democracy. Blessedly distant from 99 percent of the world’s troubles.

      Atlanta : It’s in America. Perhaps career opportunities ? That’s it’s only real virtue.

      When viewed through the metric of places to actually live my personal valuation has Newcastle at three times the price of Atlanta.

      No, I don’t live in Newcastle and wouldn’t really want to but I’m still three times keener to live there than Atlanta.

      • ….”Newcastle: Relatively cosmopolitan. Clean . Safe . Beautiful, moderate climate. Situated next to the gleaming , blue Pacific Ocean . Great lifestyle and amenities. Stable democracy. Blessedly distant from 99 percent of the world’s troubles”…..

        For now. Every year of mass immigration is destroying it all.

      • C Diminished Chord

        Most of the worlds population is coastal. While the prices reflected are the same across Australia comparative to almost anywhere else in the world.

        Newcastle is absolutely NOT better than anywhere else in the world and it takes a special kind of arrogant, but incredibly ignorant Australian hubris to think so. Its an absolute sh1thole.

        Ridiculous post.

        • “Most of the worlds population is coastal. While the prices reflected are the same across Australia comparative to almost anywhere else in the world”

          Could you be more clear with that sentence? Im interested in your view on this.

          • I think what he meant is that in Australia the ridiculous prices for property seem to cover almost the entire country, where everywhere else in the world the higher prices are only really coastal. We See Sh!thole country towns with a minimum house price of $300K and a median wage of $30K . You go to America and property prices away from the coast drop rapidly in comparison despite employment opportunities being reasonable.

          • kanniget

            Thanks for that. I’m always interested in that, and how others see it. I see it the same way. Coastal regional is now as stupidly expensive as Sydney, or anywhere in the world IMO.

          • C Diminished Chord

            Its not just New Castle – a new build in Yarram 4 hours into Gippsland an hour from a muddy beach with ZERO facilities, employment, tourist attractions or literally anything else at all is $500-600k – similar for properties 4 hours from Melbourne inland on the border of some of our worst deserts with absolutely nothing but heat and bogans.

            While the same property in the most sought after wine regions, alpine regions, coastal regions, islands of the most popular tourist destinations in the word are less than half the price.

            Australians are completely and utterly deslusional at how over priced their real estate is – and the mantra “hows the serenity” is beyond a risible joke – its really depression just how thoroughly ignorant people are.

          • I worked briefly with a young Lassie from Huntsville Alabama, Before She was posted to Australia She bought a small 4 bedroom home on 5 acres, 15 Minutes from Huntsville for $75K.

            Huntsville has a Population of 180K, FBI, NSA, IRS, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, NASA, Nortrup Grumman and 3 Universities…

            Compare that to Newcastle…. and you cant buy anything similar within 8 hours of Newcastle for that kind of price…

        • Fishing72MEMBER

          Hmmmm….I think the rush to emigrate to Australia vs the rush to NOT emigrate to most “ anywhere else in the world “ clearly disputes this claim. Then there’s the list of most liveable places in the world which puts Sydney in top 5 whilst Atlanta languishes somewhere amongst the participation award recipients.

          As stated , I wouldn’t live in Newcastle myself if I could avoid it but to say that Newcastle ranks highly in a global liveability index as the result of a special kind of Australian arrogance and hubris is very strange. Atlanta rose in the liveability index last year because of a REDUCTION in gun crime. Not a cessation, a reduction. I can’t speak for yourself, but I’d definitely bid higher if it meant my kids were less likely to get gunned down on their way to high school as is the case of Newcastle vs Atlanta. But sure …..hubris , arrogance etc

          Did enjoy the irony of your claims to have an astute eye for recognising arrogance whilst simultaneously declaring that my opinion was ridiculous. Very nice touch.

          • C Diminished Chord

            Honestly mate it is just the most ignorant of ignorant Australians who hold this view. Its absurd. There are MANY multiples of people migrating to the EU – your very first assertion is blatantly ridiculous on a galactic scale – same with the USA. Just utterly ridiculous.

            Further to this – Newcastle is not better than the absolute paradise of the Greek Isles, the incredible lifestyle of the French, Swiss, German, Austrian, Alps – you would have to be utterly insane to think so. Nor does it compare to the Riviera, Cinque Terra, French, Italian, German etc wine regions – you are just completely and utterly ignorant.

            Tripe of the worst kind.

        • It’s interesting to note it’s becoming impossible to have a civilised back and forward discussion/debate without HYPERCAPS, moralising, obnoxiousness and so forth.

          • That’s just how the “Ch1na Troll” rolls. Though ALL CAPS seems to have been dialled down in the last 6 months or so, perhaps to try and make the sockpuppeting less obvious ?

            Not that the rest of MB is a picture of civility, but they are definitely amongst the more obnoxious arseholes posting here.

          • @drsmithy
            I thought I was the resident CCP Astroturfer (aka China troll). (according to DLS)
            Are you telling me there’s more than one Astroturfer on this site?
            I’m shocked, genuinely shocked, what’s this world becoming.

          • There is a character (or characters) who has/have been posting on MB under a long list of different throwaway accounts for several years now. Typically, they were named after historical philosophers and mathemeticians, and just roll over one at a time. Now there seems to be multiple, mostly randomly named, accounts kept going at once – currently in this discussion as “C Diminished Chord”.

            Said poster primarily gained notoriety by being extremely bullish on basically every aspect of Ch1na – particularly its (secret) advanced military technology, hence the nickname – but really has a penchant for overexageration on basically every topic (including a few I know enough about to assume they are similarly fanciful about everything).

      • I’ve never lived in Atlanta but I’ve been there often enough to know that it’s not the Shi#hole you are making it out to be. I have lived near downtown Newcastle and it’s also not the utopia that you make it out to be (lot of drug and youth unemployment problems especially during tough economic times) although they have made huge strides in revamping the vibe of the city
        Wages (for any sort of skilled work) are definitely higher in Atlanta and the cost of living is most definitely lower.
        Surely (over the long run) house prices will rise and fall as a function of local wages as opposed to the Aussie model where house prices rise as a function primarily of house prices rising. In Australian logic you don’t need wages to pay for houses, you need houses to pay for houses)

        But I digress, my point was that unavoidable costs (like housing) shape the economy and determine what is possible, these costs are shaping the employment / skills / training decisions of an entire generation of Aussies. If recent history/direction is anything to go by, the career decisions (Skills/training) of our youngsters are not well matched to the opportunities likely to emerge in the second quarter of the 21st century and that means that our wage levels will be difficult to sustain. By contrast Atlanta hosts a very interesting assortment of emerging tech companies along side many rock solid blue chips with global reach.

      • I think the rush to emigrate to Australia vs the rush to NOT emigrate to most “ anywhere else in the world “ clearly disputes this claim.

        I doubt most are emigrating to Australia – especially anywhere in WA (and I say that as someone who would be happy to live there) – as their first choice.

    • Putting aside the land value – what would you estimate the cost of building that beautiful 4 bedroom 3 bath 3 living area house in Atlanta? If the building cost is 200k, is the land really only worth 100k(?!?) I suppose you have to consider the ongoing cost of (American) property taxes as well as the initial outlay.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Can’t speak for the whole of the US, but in property taxes are a non event (at least in AZ where I have personal experience). Sure, they’re about US$1000 a year, but no different to council rates in Oz (which are a form of property tax under a ‘nicer’ name). The HOA (Home Owners Acc) fee is about $45 month and city tax of about $20 a month. Hardly a huge impost.

      • I would guess new its was around $100K land, so $200K for the building. (today probably $150K land $150K house) older houses depreciate in the US. (weird idea isn’t it)
        Building costs in that part of the US used to be around $100/sqft for nice quality work (say pre 2008 time frame) so for 200K you’d get a 4000sq/ft house (370sqm).

        • C Diminished Chord

          Australian houses are now built out of the cheapest framing possible- not even pine anymore – they are clad in what would pass as “thick cardboard” in most art classes in primary school with – sometimes – a water barrier.

          I photographed a build in Ivanhoe last week where the water barrier was “smiths crisps” packet if anyone is interested.

          Wow.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The difference is caused by land zoning. There is not a shortage of land in Australia, there is a however shortage of land that you can build a house on.

      • No disagreement on that point, but how long can we Aussie continue to deny the blindingly obvious, that’s the real unknown in this equation.

      • C Diminished Chord

        Rubbish. Land zoning is much more prevalent in Europe and MUCH stricter, they have way higher density and property is still many multiples cheaper.

        The reason is Australians are stupid and pay several times more for everything – from houses to gas, bananas to fish. We are morons and will just pay whatever and too stupid to realise.

        Rest of the world knows this and hence apply what is globally known as “the Australian tax” – because we are morons.

        Its really that simple. You are being taken for a ride and justify with idiotic excuses.

        • I don’t understand how you can deny that a shortage of land zoned Residential plays an important role in supporting silly house prices.
          Lets assume that I was allowed to buy farmland (couple of acres) say around Port Stevens and clear the land, put in a state of the art Septic system and collect as much rain water as I’d ever need. Power could all be done with solar / battery and Communications done wirelessly.
          Are you seriously suggesting that it would be impossible for me (personally) to clear the land, prepare the foundations and provide access for less than the $300K that residential land in that part of regional NSW sells for? Keep in mind that median local wages in this area are around $30Kpa (so for $300K I could purchase 10 man years worth of labour)
          Keep in mind we are not talking down town Sydney this is regional NSW.

  11. Can i ask.. with u.s. fed QE we had a stockmarket bounce. Will we be seeing an asx on the up??

    • My hope is that all this bond buying will support our superannuation funds. Much of that super is invested in inner city office buildings and toll roads. I expect support will be needed there. It would have been better/ more efficient for governments to invest in infrastructure directly and give all oldies a pension.

  12. Now all those people i know up and down the coast in $2m houses go from opposing immigration to wanting Zac Efron and Matt Damon to buy their houses.

    There’s ways out of this, and that’s exactly what will happen.

    We’ll sell off our kids futures, that’s what we’ll do, and the progressive young will cheer it on, along with The Project, ABC, other MSM, Labor and Greens.

    It’s all wrapped up perfectly for the elites to pilfer the entire country, and nothing’s going to stop it

  13. The hollowing out problem has not gone away. This boom is just more misallocation of national income to unproductive assets. That has consequences. When every last cent of your benign owner occupiers is spent on their harmless mortgage, what’s left to hold up demand? Or invest in a SME? We can’t restructure this economy as long as we’re in a balance sheet recession.

    • Correct. We’re a medical device company with a disruptive product and local manufacturing which will be taken over for a snack or moved offshore. Productive assets don’t get a look in for capital.

      • Someone in your game told me the other day that we invent a lot of great biomedical stuff in this country but we sell none of it. This is the issue…no culture of commercialisation

  14. There seems a disconnect to me – the proposition is it is not as bad “for the broader economy” but every day we kick the can it is horrible for the average punter (not the 1%) so it is still something to worry about.
    More people putting off having kids, more people who have kids not spending time with them, higher cost of everything due to land prices and just more and more general stress forcing people to become selfish and breaking down our sense of community.
    This “broader economy” you speak of feels like some BS GDP measure – at the individual level it still sucks for many people.
    Apologies I don’t understand many of the technical arguments folks around here put forward and I am grateful to try to understand but I do think this whole BS cost of shelter is a still worry.
    Due to pure luck of demographics, etc I’m ok but that doesn’t make it not a worry.

    • “Apologies I don’t understand many of the technical arguments”

      Neither do I, but I don’t think we need to, to know it’s a clusterF wrecking our country and kids futures.

  15. Nz is taking off again, and i guess they are a few months ahead of us in post covid opening. Lots of returning expats. I think we will follow, safe haven etc looking a lot more attractive than the rest of the world right now. Ling twrm who knows, its a different world now.

  16. Mining BoganMEMBER

    How does this stealth nationalisation thing work when our politicians and administrators have the cheapest bribe price on the planet?

  17. Hi David,
    Preciously, you seemed to be worried about the young generation being the bagholders when (if) this thing ever unfolds, for example when BBs start selling in droves. Did that concern go away?

  18. Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

    Maybe I live in lala land but here I go anyway. A large segment of people, either through fear or by restriction have been forced to not transact for most of this year. Therefore, with the easing of restrictions and falling infection rates here, demand has now increased. Many people did not lose their jobs and via early access to super and job keeper now have perhaps an extra 30-70k on hand, if they didn’t gamble or eBay it away it away, maybe x 2 that for a couple. So that’s an extra 60-140k. That brings that segment into the market.

    But rents are going down and what I understand from this site, Chinese buyers have not only stopped buying baby formula, they have stopped buying property. We also have zero immigration, zero international tourism, and property investors are not buying at the same rate due to falling rents etc etc. Last time I checked that pandemic is still raging OS and we still didn’t have a vaccine. So my question is, who comes in next after these people, particularly, if the economy is not humming in 6 months time….?

    • Fishing72MEMBER

      Kicking a can down the road is an unassumingly zen activity. It relies on the participant focussing on the can in its immediate position only. To conceive of the eventual resting point of the can at the conclusion of the activity and to introduce the concept of a final goal is to defeat the very purpose To contravene this intrinsic element of the can kicking is to presume that the activity has now ceased to exist as kicking the can and has now morphed into another activity entirely. It has now become soccer .

      Australian real estate industry isn’t playing soccer.

    • it’s owner occupier driven. people always need a place to live and many prefer to own rather than rent. for Sydney metro at least, the ‘next’ you ask about is simply a continuation of the current – low-ish volumes, with prices incrementally bid up by people using low interest rates to borrow sh!tloads and/or leveraging existing equity gains. it’s not particularly exciting but it will keep a floor underneath prices for years.

      the east coast was on fire, the world got sick and closed down and the US is tearing itself apart…and the Australian property market has barely winced. at this point, i fully expect that even when the four horseman appear on the horizon, there’ll be savvy buyers bidding up ‘renovators delights’ as we all descend into the darkeness.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Things are certainly going to get messy but thanks to an unholy alliance between Greens not wanting to expand our “environmental footprint” and landbanking developers only wanting to trickle feed new lots on to the market, the old adage about Land ” they aren’t making anymore of it” will help to keep free standing house nominal prices up.
      I agree Apartments are rooted though. We’ve been making way to many of them!.
      Also global plutocracy seems to be guiding us towards an inflationary breakout esp with this China decoupling.
      We couldn’t do it alone but if the world is going to go down the inflationary path instead of, the beyond the pale, asset price wipeouts or even worse,… debt jubilee! Then we will be too.
      Houses were under 25k in Ermo in 1970 and a lot of people said they’d never be worth more than 100k yet today they are still well over a million.
      I think we just have to get used to house prices being measured in the 10s of millions. You know like the Japs do.

      “the average list price of a newly constructed house in the Tokyo 23 wards was ¥64,870,000”

      That’s Sixty Four Million!

      I reckon we could get into the Billions fer sher

    • C Diminished Chord

      “Many people did not lose their jobs and via early access to super and job keeper now have perhaps an extra 30-70k on hand”

      Lols – ok champ. I reckon, with a little bit of effort and ignoring absolutely every single metric there is – you could double that. OH wait – you did.

      So – peoples incomes collapsed from $100k to JobKeeper of $40k and they have an extra $70k because – “did not go over seas” – right on. Withdrew $30k from super and put it in the bank ? Didn’t spend it ? Kept it ?

      Risible.

      • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

        I love it when I get “champed”. I stand by it. Many people received job keeper and accessed their super. It was possible to have a 20% dip in turnover for one month and receive benefits for the next six. Many businesses returned to BAU quickly. So no, not risable at all.

  19. Ronin8317MEMBER

    There is a theory that the market doesn’t crash until all the bears have turn into bulls, so the sign of the top is MB Property Investment Fund being launched 😛

  20. “Sydney and Melbourne have huge oversupply.”
    Of units maybe, but not of houses. At least not of houses that are in liveable, or even semi-liveable areas.

  21. Poochie the Rockin Dog

    I don’t really understand how the RBA printing money thus boosting house prices fixes things. If our currency becomes worthless then house prices will really not be so high, but what’s the plan to get wages to rise? How does that happen?

  22. Zombie Apocalypse

    In short, the Aussie property bubble is a shadow of its former self….yes the inequality has been shifted to regional areas where working professionals (allied health, school teachers etc) either can’t find housing to rent or can’t compete with the influx of capital city money. The irony is that all of these new residents are going to require the services of those who are becoming increasing frustrated by this covid initiated tree/sea change…what could possibly go wrong…

  23. Sold my house in Perth about 10 years ago, bought back in just over 2 years ago. Looks like I’ve somehow managed to time this thing perfectly. Unfortunately its 90% luck and circumstance rather than skill but I’ll take it!

    • Yeah how many HKers with Aussie citizenship are there? They’re gonna want to live here, so some will buy sight unseen before the borders reopen, and once those borders reopen….BOOM

  24. Just because you’ve changed your mind on housing, doesn’t mean you’ve switched from wrong to right!