How bad is the US virus?

How bad is the US virus? Bad:

It looks no better smoothed:

Where there has been some improvement is the mortality rates:

Hospitalisations have fallen as a ratio of cases versus both first and second waves.  Deaths lag by a month so that ratio is likely to bottom here and begin to rise again.

There has been some improvement thanks to refined treatments and younger patients. But, despite the declining ratios, the pandemic is so out of control now that hospitalisations and deaths are climbing as well. Like Europe, it will not be long before the former reaches critical mass for capacity and the mortality ratio will accelerate.

More US lockdowns (likely localised) are inevitable.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. 40k at the footy

    I’d like to see a ‘How bad is the EU virus’ piece because if anything the EU is a bigger disaster.

  2. BTW Ugh … herd immunity … people should look up the term and when it was coined and its context … then consider its application …

    Hint … its not what most think … nothing to do with some die and everyone else is cool …

  3. PolarBearMEMBER

    The only line that has any objectivity is the blue line – deaths. The large increase in cases (or testing) has been going for a month now and should have registered as an uptick in deaths, the lag on those graphs is more like three weeks. Looking at the blue line, things have not really become much worse in the US, but just haven’t got better. The blue line is what you get from not locking down and some small improvements in treatments. Not much has changed really.

    • I think that is quite brave.
      Cases per day in the US have doubled in the past month.
      Either all of those cases have produced virtually no deaths in which case yippee its over … or the cases are just working their way through hospitalisation and have yet to start producing the additional deaths to be expected with the increased cases. Just a time lag thing, takes time for cases to produce deaths. They were running at 20000 deaths for October and that’s without the case surge.
      We found in Melbourne that widespread mask usage levelled out the number of cases/day but it took the full lock down to take the stuffing out of the daily case count. Both items had consequent impact on deaths. Other measures reduced the exponential speed of case rise but did not stop the rise.

      • PolarBearMEMBER

        Not really brave, I just looked at the lag on the graphs – it’s about three weeks. And also considered the decreasing response of deaths to cases over time. This is most pronounced in Sweden’s data. I’m not saying the death curve won’t respond, but I’m willing to bet it will be quite muted. Too much alarmist media coverage. I prefer the data.

    • Blue line for death sure, but I keep reading anecdotal USA comments by people whose relatives death from say cancer is changed to covid post mortem. Means no life insurance payout so matters to family. The stories are very many that hospitals get a cash benefit if a death is covid.

    • True mortality rates are yet to be determined as well lingering – persistent morbidity … yet even for the ideological numerologists the one thing they can’t seem to wrap their heads around is – if enough critical staff in any critical service is overwhelmed its a whole new ball game.

      Why the heck do you think even rabid fundies like the U.K. tories are staining their shorts and going lock down.

      The idea that some can’t understand that you can judge risk, but not uncertainty, driven by path dependency is absurd.


    No excess mortality seen anywhere in Europe, and in Belgium fewer excess deaths than their August heatwave (ever hear of that happening?)

    Take out the initial mismanagement – overuse of ventilators, return of symptomatic patients to nursing homes, abandonment of aged care centres in Spain and Italy by Eastern European carers (so they could get home before border closures) and its really just looking more and more like the flu, with flu-like mortality. Probably just once-a-decade level of mortality.