The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of September. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals surged by a seasonally adjusted 15.4% to 15,827. The overall rise in approvals was driven by the volatile units & apartments segment (+23.4%), whereas house approvals rose by 9.7%.
Over the year, dwelling approvals rose by 8.8%, with house approvals surging by 20.7% whereas unit & apartment approvals fell by 12.1%:
A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:
Dwelling approvals are now down 27% from their October 2015 peak.
In rolling annual terms, dwelling approvals are down 28% from peak:
The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level on a rolling annual basis. As you can see, VIC has rebounded whereas NSW, QLD and WA have all tanked:
The Morrison Government’s HomeBuilder subsidy is clearly juicing construction, as also evidenced by the boom in construction finance:
This pull forward of demand will obviously leave a bigger supply glut next year. But for now, it’s doing its job.